Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Prediction
Hawthorn were pulled apart by Brisbane last start and Collingwood get Jordan De Goey and Scott Pendlebury back at the MCG. Both of them go through the middle, so the case against me is sitting right there in the team sheet. I have still got the Hawks winning this by more than three goals on Saturday night.
AFL Round 23 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
HAW
$1.34
Saturday, August 15 • 7:40pm AEST
100 : 79
Melbourne Cricket Ground
COL
$3.29
Hawthorn Hawks by 21 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn Hawks by 21
Current Market
Hawthorn Hawks -19.5
1.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HHawthorn Hawks
$1.34
LINEHawthorn Hawks -19.5
$1.90
TOTALOver 173.5 points
$1.86
MULTIHawthorn Hawks Win, Over 173.5 points & Massimo D’Ambrosio 20+ Disposals
$3.99
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
These Two Drew 93 Apiece Earlier This Season and Hawthorn Have Just Been Belted by 67. I Still Want the Hawks Giving Up Nineteen and a Half on Saturday Night.
Everyone watched Hawthorn get taken apart by Brisbane and quietly moved them down a peg.
I’m not going to dress that night up. It was bad. I just won’t rebuild a top four side off one of them.
One Bad Night Does Not Reprice a Top Four Side
Brisbane has dominated Hawthorn by 67 (a 67-point winning margin, not a score of 67) Go one game further back and the Hawks were kicking 99, 132, 122 and 103. I am not rebuilding my view of a side sitting third off one night at the Gabba.
The Ruck Is the Whole Game
The biggest gap between these two is at the stoppage and it is not close. Hawthorn get first hands on the ball and Collingwood have to win it back off the deck every time. Over four quarters that is where the margin comes from, not from anything clever.
Collingwood Get De Goey and Pendlebury Back
Both of them go through the middle, which is exactly where I have said this game is won, so this is the strongest case against me on the page. A side that has won four of its last five just got harder again. My answer is that neither of them wins a ruck contest. They will be arriving at the ball second, and second is a different game.
The Points Get There
Hawthorn have kicked 99 or more in four of their last five and Collingwood put 117 on West Coast last start. Two sides that can score, at a ground where both know exactly where the goals are. The over is the second play and the smaller one.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Tip
I’m tipping Hawthorn by 21. They own the middle of the ground and Collingwood have no answer for it.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Key Stats
HIT OUTS
HAW44
COL29
First hands at the stoppage. Hawthorn go forward straight off the bounce while Collingwood are still scrapping to win the ball back off the deck.
TACKLES INSIDE 50
HAW11
COL13
This is Collingwood’s counter. When they lose the clearance they hunt it down in their forward half and score off the turnover, and that is how a side drags a margin back inside the line.
INSIDE 50S
HAW57
COL53
Volume of entries. Collingwood’s back six get no rest, and that is the sort of thing that tells in the last quarter rather than the first.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood Form Guide
Hawthorn Hawks
LWWWW
- R22: L 58-125 vs Brisbane Lions
- R21: W 99-83 vs North Melbourne
- R20: W 132-39 vs Essendon
- R19: W 122-52 vs Richmond
- R18: W 103-39 vs Carlton
Collingwood Magpies
WLWWW
- R22: W 117-98 vs West Coast Eagles
- R21: L 72-97 vs Geelong Cats
- R20: W 108-74 vs Adelaide Crows
- R19: W 90-69 vs Carlton
- R18: W 89-85 vs North Melbourne
Michael’s Verdict
Hawthorn by 21 against a line of 19.5. That is a point and a half of edge, which is thin on a footy margin, so I am on but I am not on big.
The risk stands and I am leaving it standing. Collingwood have won four of their last five and they get two mids back into a side that was already holding up. If Hawthorn are second at the centre bounces in the first quarter and Collingwood are scoring off the turnover, this one is gone and I won’t be arguing with it.
The over 173.5 is the smaller second play, off two sides that have both been putting scores on the board.
Our Bets
H2H Hawthorn Hawks$1.34
LINE Hawthorn Hawks -19.5$1.90
TOTAL Over 173.5 points$1.86
MULTI Hawthorn Hawks Win, Over 173.5 points & Massimo D’Ambrosio 20+ Disposals$3.99
Player Prop Predictions
Lachie Schultz two or more goals, $3.35. Three goals last start and he’s landed two or more in three of his last six, with a four in there as well. If Collingwood are chasing the game they need him kicking them, and $3.35 is a big price for a bloke in that sort of touch.
Jarman Impey 25 or more disposals, $2.19. The ceiling in this run is 34 and 37, so 25 or more is well within him. My read has Hawthorn owning the middle of the ground, which is where his ball comes from, and 18 last start doesn’t put me off at $2.19.
Jack Gunston three or more goals, $1.58. Three goals last start, three or more in three of his last six, and a seven in the middle of that run. Hawthorn control the footy by my read, so the supply is coming.
Charlie West to kick a goal, $1.71. He’s kicked one in two of his four games and Collingwood have to find goals somewhere against a side I’ve got winning by 21. You only need him to hit the scoreboard once at $1.71.
Massimo D’Ambrosio 20 or more disposals, $1.60. 22 disposals last start and 20 or more in four of his last seven, with a 27 and a 24 in there. Hawthorn own the middle of the ground in this one and the ball keeps finding him, which is why he’s the anchor of my multi at $1.60.
The Props I Like
PROP Lachie Schultz 2+ Goals$3.35
PROP Jarman Impey 25+ Disposals$2.19
PROP Jack Gunston 3+ Goals$1.58
PROP Charlie West Anytime Goal$1.71
PROP Massimo D’Ambrosio 20+ Disposals$1.60
Player Props MultiMassimo D'Ambrosio 20+ Disposals, Jack Gunston 3+ Goals & Jarman Impey 25+ Disposals, my price $5.54
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies |
| Date | Saturday, August 15 |
| Kick-off | 7:40pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 23 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Hawthorn Hawks Win, Over 173.5 points & Massimo D’Ambrosio 20+ Disposals @ $3.99 |
| Predicted Score | Hawthorn Hawks 100 – Collingwood Magpies 79 |
Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies FAQs
Who will win Hawthorn vs Collingwood?
I’m tipping Hawthorn by 21 points at the MCG. Collingwood get two mids back and they have won four of their last five, so this is no soft one, but I still have the Hawks clear on the back of what they do at the stoppage.
What is the best bet for Hawthorn vs Collingwood in Round 23?
My headline multi at $3.99 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Massimo D’Ambrosio 20+ Disposals. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Where is the Hawthorn vs Collingwood Round 23 match being played?
The match is at the MCG in Melbourne, bouncing down at 7:40pm AEST on Saturday 15 August 2026.
Who is Hawthorn Hawks playing next week?
Hawthorn play West Coast - at Optus Stadium on Sunday 23 August in AFL Round 24.
Who is Collingwood Magpies playing next week?
Collingwood play Brisbane - at the MCG on Friday 21 August in AFL Round 24.
