Hawthorn vs Brisbane Prediction

AFL Preliminary Final • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

HAW

$1.95

Saturday, September 19 • 5:15pm AEST

90 : 84

Melbourne Cricket Ground

BRL

$1.85

Hawthorn Hawks by 6 points

Model Predicted Margin

Hawthorn Hawks by 6

Current Market

Brisbane Lions -1.5

7.5 pts to Hawks

Our Bets This Game

H2HHawthorn Hawks

$1.95

LINEHawthorn Hawks +1.5

$1.90

TOTALUnder 189.5 points

$1.90

MULTIHawthorn Hawks +1.5, Under 189.5 points & Oscar Allen 2+ Goals

$7.76

Claim tips at Picklebet - Offer picklebet

Odds correct at time of posting

Brisbane have beaten Hawthorn three times running and the last one was by 67 points. I still have the Hawks by a kick, and the total is where the real edge is.

The market has this as close to even money as a final gets, with Brisbane a point and a half in front, and I am on the other side of it by a kick. Where I part ways with the bookies most is the total, because the Lions now run into the defence that held Fremantle to five goals, at the MCG rather than the Gabba.

Answerth is out, and that puts Nick Watson back in the game

Brisbane have named the side that beat Adelaide, which means Noah Answerth was not named after his ankle problem, and he is the man who shut Nick Watson down in Round 22. Without him the Lions need a new plan for Watson, and that is the one hole in a side that otherwise picks itself. Hawthorn are unchanged, with Mitch Lewis through his shoulder scare, so it is the same 23 that took Fremantle apart. Nothing in either list moves the total. If anything Watson getting more room nudges the winner the Hawks’ way, and I already had them.

The under is the bet, and every recent meeting says so

I have this at 174 all up, 90 to 84, against a total of 189.5. All three recent meetings between these two finished under 190, including the Round 22 game where Brisbane kicked 125 and it still fell short of that number. So the form is not arguing against the under, it is the under. Hawthorn held Fremantle to five goals in the qualifying final and finished the home and away season ranked fourth for points conceded, so the squeeze is not a one off. Brisbane can blow a total apart, and they did it to Adelaide last week, but they will not get the uncontested game they had at the Gabba against this defence at the MCG.

Brisbane have owned this matchup, and I still have Hawthorn

Three wins on the trot against the Hawks, 67 points the last time, and eight wins from their past ten trips to the MCG: nothing about the ground or the opponent worries Brisbane, and I am not going to pretend otherwise. What is different is the fortnight. Hawthorn beat the minor premiers away from home and have had a fortnight to get ready for a home final, while Brisbane conceded 141 to Sydney a fortnight ago and had to play a semi final to get here. The Lions have done this exact twilight prelim at this ground on the way to their last two flags, so the rest edge is worth a goal, not a bag. Six points is what I have.

Where I want the money

The under 189.5 at $1.90 is the bet I would take first, and it is the one I am strongest on. Hawthorn plus 1.5 at $1.90 is next, because I have them in front and the line only asks them to keep it within a point. Hawthorn at $1.95 to win outright is fair rather than generous: a six point game can go either way, so it is the leg I have the least on.

Hawthorn vs Brisbane Tip

Hawthorn by six, 90 to 84, in a final that stays under 189.5, because the Hawks’ pressure keeps the scoring down and that is the bet I trust most at $1.90.

Hawthorn vs Brisbane Key Stats

Hawthorn vs Brisbane Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Harry Morrison to kick a goal, $4.00. Harry Morrison found the goals last start and has kicked one in three of his last six, so in a tight, low scoring final where a single goal matters, $4.00 for him to snag one is a fair crack.

Massimo D’Ambrosio 20 or more disposals, $2.18. Massimo D’Ambrosio piled up 24 last start and has gone 20 or more in three of his last six, and with Hawthorn’s pressure keeping this a contest, he gets there again at $2.18.

Dylan Moore 20 or more disposals, $3.32. Dylan Moore was down with 15 last start, but he’s hit 20 or more in three of his last six and had 22 twice in the four games before that, so $3.32 is worth taking for the bounce back.

Will Day to kick a goal, $2.70. Will Day drew a blank last start, but he’s kicked a goal in three of his last six and gone for two in a game twice in that run, so at $2.70 I’m happy to back him hitting the scoreboard in a final.

Oscar Allen two or more goals, $2.15. Oscar Allen has kicked two or more in three of his last six, including back to back bags of four, and Brisbane need him to hit the scoreboard to keep this close. He’s the anchor at $2.15.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.