Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Geelong vs St Kilda Prediction
A rough month of near misses has the market treating Geelong like a spent force. I think that is a mistake, and St Kilda’s long hoodoo at Kardinia Park is the only thing standing between the Cats and a comfortable Thursday night.
AFL Round 19 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
GEE
$1.47
Thursday, July 16 • 7:30pm AEST
107 : 81
GMHBA Stadium
STK
$2.68
Geelong Cats by 25 points
Model Predicted Margin
Geelong Cats by 25
Current Market
Geelong Cats -13.5
11.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HGeelong Cats
$1.47
LINEGeelong Cats -13.5
$1.90
TOTALOver 177.5 points
$1.88
MULTICats Win, Cats -13.5 & Over 177.5
$5.25
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Geelong Have Dropped Four Of Their Last Five And The Bookies Have Bailed. St Kilda’s Kardinia Hoodoo Is The Only Reason This Line Looks Fair.
Geelong have lost four of their last five and the bookies have jumped off them. That is usually my cue to jump on.
Geelong own the forward half
The Cats win the ruck and get the ball inside 50 more than almost anyone. St Kilda have to defend wave after wave, and eventually the dam breaks. That is where a tight line gets covered.
Three losses that flatter the Saints’ price
Geelong come in cold, but read the losses. Two went down inside two goals, one of them by a single point. The market has priced a genuine finals chance like a rabble, and that is the value.
The Kardinia hoodoo is the one worry
Here is the honest risk. St Kilda have not won at Kardinia Park in years and the venue is a known hoodoo for the Saints, so if they finally break it and move the ball early the margin can tighten.
Why the points pile up
Two sides that score in bursts, on a still night with no weather to slow it down. I have this one going over. Geelong at home tend to make it a shootout, and the Saints can match the tempo without matching the result.
Geelong vs St Kilda Tip
I’m on Geelong to win by around 25 points, and the class through the middle is why the line gets covered at GMHBA Stadium.
Geelong vs St Kilda Key Stats
INSIDE 50S
GEE58
STK52
Geelong get the ball forward more often, and repeat entries are how a 13.5 line turns into a comfortable cover.
HIT-OUTS
GEE36
STK31
First use at the ruck lets the Cats set the terms at every stoppage and feed that forward half pressure.
GOALS
GEE14
STK13
Geelong turn more of that territory into majors, which is why I have the scoreboard climbing over the total.
Geelong vs St Kilda Form Guide
Geelong Cats
LLLWL
- L 73-86 vs GWS Giants
- L 101-123 vs Brisbane Lions
- L 90-99 vs Fremantle
- W 105-60 vs Gold Coast Suns
- L 74-75 vs Adelaide Crows
St Kilda Saints
WWLWL
- W 87-73 vs Port Adelaide
- W 117-50 vs Essendon
- L 61-83 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 96-88 vs GWS Giants
- L 102-104 vs Sydney Swans
Michael’s Verdict
Back Geelong to win and cover. The Saints’ hoodoo is real and it keeps me honest, but a side still fighting for the eight going at this price after a rough month is a gift. I make it the Cats by around four goals with the scoreboard climbing over.
Our Bets
H2H Geelong Cats$1.47
LINE Geelong Cats -13.5$1.90
TOTAL Over 177.5 points$1.88
MULTI Cats Win, Cats -13.5 & Over 177.5$5.25
Key Facts
| Match | Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints |
| Date | Thursday, July 16 |
| Kick-off | 7:30pm AEST |
| Venue | GMHBA Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 19 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Geelong Multi: H2H + Line + Over 177.5 @ $5.25 |
| Predicted Score | Geelong Cats 107 – St Kilda Saints 81 |
Geelong Cats vs St Kilda Saints FAQs
Who will win Geelong vs St Kilda?
I’m tipping Geelong to win by around 25 points at GMHBA Stadium. The Cats hold the edge in the ruck and forward entries, and I think a rough month has the market underrating them.
What is the best bet for Geelong vs St Kilda in Round 19?
Geelong to cover the 13.5 line at $1.90 is the play. I make the margin bigger than that, and with both sides scoring freely the over at $1.88 backs it up.
Where is the Geelong vs St Kilda Round 19 match being played?
The match is at GMHBA Stadium in Geelong, kicking off at 7:30pm on Thursday 16 July 2026.
Who is Geelong Cats playing next week?
Geelong play Melbourne - Afl tips melbourne vs geelong prediction 24 07 26 at the MCG on Friday 24 July in AFL Round 20.
Who is St Kilda Saints playing next week?
St Kilda play North Melbourne - Afl tips north melbourne vs st kilda prediction 26 07 26 at Marvel Stadium on Sunday 26 July in AFL Round 20.
