Geelong vs Richmond Prediction

AFL Round 24 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

GEE

$1.02

Saturday, August 22 • 7:45pm AEST

117 : 56

GMHBA Stadium

RIC

$15.00

Geelong Cats by 61 points

Model Predicted Margin

Geelong Cats by 61

Current Market

Geelong Cats -61.5

0.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HGeelong Cats

$1.02

LINERichmond Tigers +61.5

$1.90

TOTALUnder 186.5 points

$1.89

MULTIGeelong Cats Win, Under 186.5 points & Lawson Humphries 20+ Disposals

$2.60

Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet

Odds correct at time of posting

Geelong Are $1.02 and They Deserve to Be. The Only Question Is How Far.

So the whole exercise is the number, and my number lands a whisker inside the one the bookmakers have hung.

Two of Geelong’s last three over Richmond were five and six goal wins, not ten. Sixty one and a half asks for the biggest of the three, so I would rather have the points.

The Result Is Not the Bet

Geelong come in on five straight wins and are chasing a sixth to see out the home and away season. Richmond have won three games all year and lost by 49 last start.

So the head to head at $1.02 is not a bet, it is a formality with a price on it. Everything interesting about this game sits in the handicap and the total.

Sixty One and a Half Points Is a Very Big Ask

Geelong have beaten Richmond three times running, by 39, by 72 and by 30. Only one of those three clears the line the bookmakers have hung on this one.

A side can be far better than another one and still not win by ten goals. Two of the three were five and six goal wins rather than ten, and that is exactly the shape of game that lands Richmond inside the number.

The Case Against Me Has a Name and a Ladder

Jeremy Cameron is back for his first game since Round 18 after getting through an AC joint problem, and a two time Coleman medallist walking back into that forward line is the obvious way this gets ugly.

The second reason is the ladder. A Geelong win all but secures a top six finish and a home elimination final, and the club has spelt out that percentage still decides where they land. A side with a reason to keep kicking is the enemy of a plus 61.5 bet, and I am taking it anyway.

The Under Is the Cleaner Half of It

Richmond have not passed 84 points in any of their last five and were held to 45 and 52 in two of them. I have it Geelong 117, Richmond 56.

That leaves the total needing another two goals and change from somewhere, and I cannot see where they come from. Geelong can kick 120 and if Richmond keep scoring the way they have been, this still does not get there. A cold, still night at GMHBA does nothing to change that either. At $1.89 the under is the leg I am most comfortable with.

Geelong vs Richmond Tip

I’m tipping Geelong by about ten goals. Richmond cannot match them anywhere on the ground, but my margin lands just inside 61.5, so I will take the points.

Geelong vs Richmond Key Stats

Geelong vs Richmond Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Jack Ross 25 or more disposals, $1.83. Jack Ross has been getting plenty of it in the middle for Richmond, with 27 and 29 in there before a quiet 16 last start. He has landed 25 or more in three of his last six, and against a Geelong side that will have the ball plenty, the tackling and chasing numbers stack up at $1.83.

Jack Martin two or more goals, $2.00. Jack Martin kicked two last start and he has done it in two of his last four for Geelong. If I am right and Geelong win by around ten goals, the forwards get fed all day, and $2.00 for a bloke already hitting that mark is the shape I want.

Mykelti Lefau two or more goals, $2.40. Two goals last start for Mykelti Lefau, and he has hit two or more in four of his last seven. Richmond get beaten up plenty but he keeps finding the goals, and $2.40 pays well for something he does most weeks.

Tim Taranto to kick a goal, $1.81. Tim Taranto goaled last start and has hit the scoreboard in four of his last seven. He spends enough time forward to get his chance, and even in a beating Richmond will have their patches. Just a goal is all I need.

Lawson Humphries 20 or more disposals, $1.35. Lawson Humphries had 20 on the dot last start and 23 the week before, so the ball is finding him. He has racked up 20 or more in four of his last seven, and with Geelong expected to control this one, the disposals come easy. Steady leg at $1.35.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

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