Geelong vs Essendon Prediction

AFL Round 22 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

GEE

$1.01

Saturday, August 8 • 4:35pm AEST

125 : 66

GMHBA Stadium

ESS

$19.00

Geelong Cats by 59 points

Model Predicted Margin

Geelong Cats by 59

Current Market

Geelong Cats -64.5

5.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HGeelong Cats

$1.01

LINEEssendon Bombers +64.5

$1.91

TOTALOver 183.5 points

$1.87

MULTIGeelong Cats Win, Over 183.5 points & Shaun Mannagh Anytime Goal

$2.15

Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet

Odds correct at time of posting

Geelong Will Win This By Plenty. They Still Have Not Been Winning By Sixty Four And A Half.

The bet here is not who wins. It is whether Geelong have a ten and a half goal performance in them, and nothing they have done lately says they do.

Geelong win comfortably, not by ten and a half goals

Geelong have won their last three by twenty five, twenty and twenty seven. That is a side grinding out results, not burying opponents. To get past sixty four and a half they need to more than double their best margin of the past month, and nothing about the way they are playing suggests that is coming.

Essendon have been getting hammered

I am not pretending otherwise. Essendon have been beaten by seventy two, ninety three and ninety inside the past month, and if that version turns up this line is nowhere near enough. But those beltings came from sides that put a hundred and thirty or more on them. Geelong have not passed a hundred and twenty in a month.

What has changed at Essendon

Getting Caldwell and Perkins back through the middle matters less for the result and more for the shape of it. A bit more midfield means a side that can hold the football long enough to stop the bleeding, and the bleeding is the only reason this line is where it is. That is all I need from them. I am not asking them to win.

Fifty nine against sixty four and a half is thin, and I am wearing it

Five and a half points. One goal after the siren and I am gone, so I will not sell you this as a comfortable one. I am wearing it because Geelong’s scoring has not been near the level this line needs for a month, and because they give the football back often enough to let a beaten side kick a couple late. That is how their last three finished in the twenties instead of the fifties.

Geelong vs Essendon Tip

I’ve got Geelong by about ten goals. That is fifty nine against a line of sixty four and a half, so it is tight, and I am taking Essendon and the points anyway.

Geelong vs Essendon Key Stats

Geelong vs Essendon Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Andrew McGrath 20 or more disposals, $1.59. He’s cleared 20 in three of his last six.

Dyson Sharp 20 or more disposals, $1.97. Three on the trot above the mark now, 23 then 21 then 22 last start, and that is a bloke whose role has grown. Four of his last seven have landed it and $1.97 for that kind of form is the best value on the page.

Nate Caddy two or more goals, $1.68. Only the one last start but he snagged three the week before and has bagged two or more in four of his last seven, so the multi goal days keep turning up. If Essendon are going to score at all on Saturday it goes through him.

Zach Merrett 25 or more disposals, $1.77. 28 last start and there is a 35 and a 32 sitting in this run too, so the huge numbers are never far away. Four of his last seven have cleared 25, and a side getting run over spends the afternoon winning the ball back.

Shaun Mannagh to kick a goal, $1.14. He has hit the scoreboard in each of his last four, including that four goal haul, and a goal in four of his last seven. With Geelong winning this by about ten goals the chances will keep coming, and $1.14 is exactly what a steady anchor should look like.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

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