Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction

AFL Grand Final • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

FRE

$2.20

Saturday, September 26 • 2:30pm AEST

87: 91

Melbourne Cricket Ground

BRL

$1.67

Brisbane Lions by 4 points

Model Predicted Margin

Brisbane Lions by 4

Current Market

Brisbane Lions -7.5

3.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HBrisbane Lions

$1.67

LINEFremantle Dockers +7.5

$1.90

TOTALUnder 181.5 points

$1.90

MULTIFremantle Dockers +7.5, Under 181.5 points & Hayden Young 20+ Disposals

$5.67

Claim Tips at - Offer betr

Odds correct at time of posting

Brisbane get the flag, Fremantle get my money. Seven and a half points is too many in a one-kick game.

A margin this thin over four quarters is not a call I would bet the house on, and I am not going to dress it up as one.

The question worth answering is not who holds the cup up. It is whether either of them ever gets clear.

Seven and a half points is a lot to hand over in a decider

The bookmakers have Brisbane giving up seven and a half in a Grand Final. My margin sits 3.5 points inside that. The under gives me the same 3.5-point model edge, but the line gets paid two ways: Brisbane win narrowly or Fremantle win outright. That is why the +7.5 is my best bet and the under is the add-on.

Round 12 was not the game you remember

Everyone remembers Fremantle winning by 25 at the Gabba in May. Here is what the stat sheet says. Brisbane won the clearances 42 to 31 and the inside 50s 59 to 47. Both sides had 28 scoring shots. Fremantle kicked 15.13 from theirs, Brisbane kicked 10.18. The Dockers were better on the night, but the final margin also came with a big gap in conversion.

And it was not this Brisbane. Ryan Lester, Jack Payne and Dayne Zorko were all out, Keidean Coleman did his hamstring in the first quarter, and Eric Hipwood and Oscar Allen were still on the comeback trail. Amiss, Voss and Treacy kicked 11 goals between them against a depleted Lions defence. Zorko, Lester, Hipwood and Allen are all named on Saturday.

Brisbane were 6 and 6 after that loss. They have won 12 of their past 14. That is why Brisbane are my winner. The May game still matters, though: Fremantle created 28 scoring shots and converted theirs far better, which is another reason I want the points.

The number that decides this: 100

Brisbane have lost eight games this year. In all eight, the other side scored 100 or more. They have played ten games where the opposition hit 100 and won two of them. They have not lost a game where they held a side under 100.

Fremantle’s side of it is nearly as clean. Four of their five losses came when they conceded 100 or more. The one exception was the qualifying final against Hawthorn in the wet, when they kicked 5.10 and lost scoring 40.

So the whole Grand Final is one question: do Fremantle get to 100? They average 97 a game and kicked 103 at the Gabba against a much more depleted Brisbane defence. In forecast wet conditions against a healthier Lions backline, I have them short of that mark. That is why Brisbane are my winner. But if Fremantle finish in the 80s or 90s, this can still be a one-kick game late, which is why I want +7.5.

The rain, with the actual numbers

The Bureau’s Friday morning forecast for East Melbourne on Saturday is rain, a 95 per cent chance of any rain, 2 to 8 millimetres, 12 to 16 degrees, with southerly winds around 15 to 20 km/h. The rain is expected mainly in the morning and afternoon. That is a wet-weather forecast, but it does not mean it will rain heavily for every minute of the game.

Both sides have already played a wet final this September and both lost. Fremantle kicked 5.10 against Hawthorn, with Josh Treacy held to four disposals and no marks. Brisbane lost by 53 to Sydney after conditions turned from warm and windy to pelting rain, losing the clearances 35 to 45. That is enough for me to treat the weather as a real factor rather than a throwaway line.

Here is the honest part. Brisbane’s last four games have all finished at 229 points or higher, while two of Fremantle’s last five have finished under 181.5. So the under is a weather-led bet, not a form bet. I have 178 against 181.5, only three and a half points of edge. If the forecast dries up, I like it a lot less.

One ruck against two

Brisbane split the ruck 50-50 between Darcy Fort and Sam Draper. Fort told afl.com.au this week of Luke Jackson: “I’ve had a few times I thought I was in a good position to receive the ball and I turn around and he’s 50m behind me.” Jackson had 28 hitouts and two goals in the preliminary final and polled 19 Brownlow votes, the most of any Fremantle player. If conditions are wet, Jackson’s ability to influence the game after the ruck contest is the part that worries me most for Brisbane.

Answerth is an emergency. Ask Nick Watson what that means.

Noah Answerth is fit and Brisbane have still named him as an emergency. That matters because of what he did to Nick Watson in round 22: Watson had kicked only one goal in three games against Brisbane, and Answerth held him goalless for the first time in 30 matches. Answerth then missed the preliminary final with an ankle injury and Watson kicked six. Brisbane have backed the same defence again on Saturday.

Fremantle’s small forwards have kicked 11 between them this September: Bolton four, Dudley four and Frederick three. In wet conditions, ground-ball chances become more important. Isaiah Dudley two or more at $2.95 is the one I like for a bigger swing.

Neale is named, and I am still taking the points

Lachie Neale was handed a one-match ban after the preliminary final, but Brisbane successfully overturned it at the AFL Appeal Board on Thursday night and he is free to play. Matthew Johnson went to him early in the May meeting and Neale still finished with 23 disposals and eight clearances. Having Neale available firms Brisbane for me, and he is one of the biggest reasons this line could get away from Fremantle.

So why am I still on the points? Because my winner needs four and the bookmakers are asking for 7.5. Brisbane can still be the better side and win by a goal. The danger is one quarter where they break the game open.

The last quarter is where +7.5 gets interesting

Brisbane have lost the last quarter in all three finals, 92 points to 117 in total. Fremantle went the other way in the preliminary final, turning a 21-point three-quarter-time deficit into a 12-point win over Sydney with a 5.4 to 0.1 final term.

That was Fremantle’s eighth win this season after trailing at three-quarter time, a record-equalling number. If this is still close at the last change, that history matters a lot more to me than who led for the first three quarters.

The counter is that Fremantle have won only three of their 12 quarters across this finals series. They are not dominating finals from start to finish; they are finding ways to stay alive and finish. For +7.5, that is enough.

Fremantle vs Brisbane Tip

I have Brisbane by four, 91 to 87. Their experience in games like this is the difference for me late. Brisbane are the winner at $1.67, but Fremantle +7.5 is where I want my money. Those are two different positions, and the line is the one I trust more.

Fremantle vs Brisbane 2026 Key Stats (Per Game)

Fremantle vs Brisbane Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Hugh McCluggage two or more goals, $5.50. Three goals last start from Hugh McCluggage, and that came off two the week before. He is getting forward and finding the scoreboard at the right time. Two or more at $5.50 is worth the swing.

Jye Amiss two or more goals, $1.71. Jye Amiss has two five-goal games in his recent run, so the ceiling is obvious. He has landed two or more in three of his last six, and if Fremantle stay with Brisbane he should get enough opportunities. $1.71 is the price you pay for a genuine goalkicker.

Hayden Young 20 or more disposals, $1.57. Twenty eight disposals last start for Hayden Young, his biggest of the run, and he has gone 23 three times in the last seven. Fremantle are finding ways to get him involved at big moments, and 20+ is a number I am comfortable with. At $1.57, that is a steady leg.

Isaiah Dudley two or more goals, $2.95. Isaiah Dudley has kicked two in each of his last two games, and he has hit two or more in four of his last seven. Consistent rather than spectacular, which is exactly what you want at $2.95 in a game this close.

Kai Lohmann two or more goals, $1.88. Five goals last start from Kai Lohmann. He has had a quiet patch in the middle of that run, but when he goes he really goes, and two or more has come up in four of his last seven. At $1.88 for two or more, I am happy to back him getting enough chances again.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.