Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Essendon vs Sydney Prediction
Teams are out and the ins are the story on both sides. Essendon have Nick Bryan and Harry Jones named, and Angus Clarke returns from concussion protocols. Sydney bring back Dane Rampe and Brodie Grundy. None of it moves my read on 61.5. Sydney are miles the better side and I am not pretending otherwise, but the handicap has crept past 61 and the last three meetings between these two did not get near that number. That is where the value sits at the MCG on Sunday.
AFL Round 23 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
ESS
$15.00
Sunday, August 16 • 4:40pm AEST
55 : 115
Melbourne Cricket Ground
SYD
$1.02
Sydney Swans by 60 points
Model Predicted Margin
Sydney Swans by 60
Current Market
Sydney Swans -61.5
1.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HSydney Swans
$1.02
LINEEssendon Bombers +61.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 184.5 points
$1.89
MULTISydney Swans Win, Under 184.5 points & Nick Blakey 25+ Disposals
$2.87
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Sydney Win This And Win It Well. 61.5 Is Still More Than They Have Beaten Essendon By In Three Goes.
Sydney win this. The only thing worth arguing is the number, and the market has pushed it past anything these two have produced in three meetings.
61.5 Is A Number, Not A Prediction
The last three times these two met the margins were 14 points, 39 points, and one the other way where Essendon won by 8. Not one of them got close to what is being asked here. I have Sydney by 60, which tells you how fine this is, and fine is exactly the side of the line I want.
The Case Against Me Is Essendon’s Season
This is the risk and there is no dressing it up: the Bombers have been beaten by 70 or more three times in their last five, one of those by 93. A side losing like that can lose by anything. What has changed this week is the ins. Their talls are named and the concussion protocols are cleared, so they go in with a taller, more settled side than the one that copped those hidings.
A Stronger Sydney Is Not Automatically A Bigger Sydney
The two named back in make this a stronger Sydney on paper. Whether that turns into a game they manage out or one they blow apart is the open question. Sides that control a game are not the same as sides that bury it, and Sydney have spent this back half controlling them.
The Points Stay Down
Their last three meetings produced 122, 134 and 157 points, every one of them short of what the total is asking for on Sunday. A total that big needs both sides kicking a score. Essendon do not, and Sydney stop kicking once the game is gone and start working the ball around instead of going at it.
Essendon vs Sydney Tip
I have Sydney by 60 at the MCG. That wins them the game on their ear and still leaves 1.5 points on my side of the line.
Essendon vs Sydney Key Stats
CENTRE CLEARANCES
ESS11
SYD14
Sydney get first hands on it out of the middle, so they get in front early rather than needing a late burst. Early leads win games. They do not on their own win them by 62.
MARKS INSIDE 50
ESS10
SYD14
Sydney take it in front of goal, so their scoreboard moves in chunks. That is how the 60 gets on the board. Whether it keeps moving once the game is safe is the whole bet.
MARKS
ESS89
SYD80
This is the one thing Essendon do better and it matters here. A side that keeps taking marks slows the game down, and slow football is how a beaten team stays inside a big line and keeps the total down.
Essendon vs Sydney Form Guide
Essendon Bombers
LLLWL
- R22: L 50-117 vs Geelong Cats
- R21: L 73-145 vs Adelaide Crows
- R20: L 39-132 vs Hawthorn
- R19: W 67-64 vs GWS Giants
- R18: L 59-149 vs Brisbane Lions
Sydney Swans
WWWLL
- R22: W 167-70 vs Port Adelaide
- R21: W 107-88 vs St Kilda
- R20: W 139-88 vs GWS Giants
- R19: L 71-87 vs Adelaide Crows
- R18: L 73-111 vs Fremantle
Michael’s Verdict
Sydney by 60 is the call and I still want the Bombers on the line. The honest risk is that this Essendon side has been beaten by 70 or more three times in their last five, one of them by 93, so one shocking quarter and the number is gone. But three meetings in a row decided by less than 40 says the market has run past the football here.
Our Bets
H2H Sydney Swans$1.02
LINE Essendon Bombers +61.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 184.5 points$1.89
MULTI Sydney Swans Win, Under 184.5 points & Nick Blakey 25+ Disposals$2.87
Player Prop Predictions
Peter Wright two or more goals, $1.69. He blanked last start, but the six the game before shows how fast he can fill it up, and he has kicked two or more in three of his last six. Happy to forgive one quiet one at $1.69.
Braeden Campbell 20 or more disposals, $2.18. Had 22 last start and he has had 20 or more in two of his last four. If Sydney are on top the way I have them at the MCG, he gets his hands on plenty for $2.18.
Nick Blakey 25 or more disposals, $1.49. Back to back 28s heading in, and 25 or more in four of his last seven. That is the sort of steady leg I want anchoring the multi, short price and all.
Chad Warner two or more goals, $1.78. Three goals last start says he is going forward and hurting people, and that is two or more in four of his last seven. With Sydney winning this on their ear he will get his looks.
Zach Merrett 25 or more disposals, $1.67. Racked up 29 last start and he has been at 25 or more in four of his last seven. Someone has to win the ball for a beaten side and it is always him, so $1.67 is fair.
The Props I Like
PROP Peter Wright 2+ Goals$1.69
PROP Braeden Campbell 20+ Disposals$2.18
PROP Nick Blakey 25+ Disposals$1.49
PROP Chad Warner 2+ Goals$1.78
PROP Zach Merrett 25+ Disposals$1.67
Player Props MultiNick Blakey 25+ Disposals, Zach Merrett 25+ Disposals & Chad Warner 2+ Goals, my price $4.43
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans |
| Date | Sunday, August 16 |
| Kick-off | 4:40pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 23 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Sydney Swans Win, Under 184.5 points & Nick Blakey 25+ Disposals @ $2.87 |
| Predicted Score | Essendon Bombers 55 – Sydney Swans 115 |
Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans FAQs
Who will win Essendon vs Sydney?
I’m tipping Sydney to win by around 60 points at the MCG. Essendon have been beaten by 70 or more three times in their last five, and Sydney have won three on end.
What is the best bet for Essendon vs Sydney in Round 23?
My headline multi at $2.87 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Nick Blakey 25+ Disposals. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Where is the Essendon vs Sydney Round 23 match being played?
The match is at the MCG in Melbourne, bouncing down at 4:40pm AEST on Sunday 16 August 2026.
Who is Essendon Bombers playing next week?
Essendon play Port Adelaide - at Marvel Stadium on Sunday 23 August in AFL Round 24.
Who is Sydney Swans playing next week?
Sydney play North Melbourne - at the SCG on Sunday 23 August in AFL Round 24.
