Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Essendon vs Adelaide Prediction
Adelaide are a class above and Essendon are being beaten heavily most weeks, so the winner is not in doubt. The only question at Marvel this afternoon is whether the Crows cover a very big line, and I think they do.
AFL Round 21 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
ESS
$7.00
Sunday, August 2 • 4:40pm AEST
45 : 100
Marvel Stadium
ADE
$1.10
Adelaide Crows by 55 points
Model Predicted Margin
Adelaide Crows by 55
Current Market
Adelaide Crows -40.5
14.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HAdelaide Crows
$1.10
LINEAdelaide Crows -40.5
$1.89
TOTALUnder 174.5 points
$1.90
MULTIAdelaide Crows -40.5, Under 174.5 points & Riley Thilthorpe 2+ Goals
$4.49
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Adelaide Are a Class Above and Essendon Are Getting Beaten Heavily. This Afternoon at Marvel the Only Question Is Whether the Crows Cover a Very Big Line.
Adelaide are the kind of side that gets on top and keeps going, they don’t let you back in. Essendon come in without Jordan Ridley and short of troops, and it’s showing in how heavily they’ve been beaten. Fifth on the ladder against seventeenth, and it plays exactly like that.
Adelaide are a class above
Adelaide win the contest, own the ruck and keep the ball locked in their forward half, and Essendon have no answer for any of it. When the hard ball and the territory both run the one way like this, one side is playing a different game. That gap is real and it’s big.
The line is the real question
Here’s the catch, and I won’t hide from it. These two have played a two point game, so 40.5 is a big ask. What has changed is Essendon. They have been beaten heavily since, they are missing Jordan Ridley and others, and they simply are not the side that pushed Adelaide that day. That is why I will take the line this time.
The under stacks up too
Essendon can barely put a score on the board right now. Even if Adelaide pile it on, one side kicking a big total and the other kicking next to nothing still lands under. That is the under, not a coin flip.
Essendon vs Adelaide Tip
Adelaide to win by plenty. Too strong across the ground for an Essendon side getting beaten heavily most weeks.
Essendon vs Adelaide Key Stats
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS
ESS117
ADE140
First hands at the contest is where this one is won, and Adelaide get them. Essendon are second to it and playing catch up all day.
HIT-OUTS
ESS32
ADE41
Adelaide’s ruck hands the mids clean ball to work with. Essendon are chasing from the first bounce.
TACKLES INSIDE 50
ESS9
ADE12
When Adelaide go forward the ball sticks there. Essendon get no relief and no clean way out.
Essendon vs Adelaide Form Guide
Essendon Bombers
LWLLL
- R20: L 39-132 vs Hawthorn
- R19: W 67-64 vs GWS Giants
- R18: L 59-149 vs Brisbane Lions
- R17: L 50-117 vs St Kilda
- R16: L 65-79 vs North Melbourne
Adelaide Crows
LWWWL
- R20: L 74-108 vs Collingwood
- R19: W 87-71 vs Sydney Swans
- R18: W 128-49 vs Gold Coast Suns
- R17: W 99-74 vs West Coast Eagles
- R16: L 71-97 vs Port Adelaide
Michael’s Verdict
I won’t gloss the one thing that can beat this. These two have played a two point game, so 40.5 is not a freebie. But that Essendon side is gone. They have been smashed since and they are missing troops, so I will wear the line. Total under as well, because the Bombers can’t score.
Our Bets
H2H Adelaide Crows$1.10
LINE Adelaide Crows -40.5$1.89
TOTAL Under 174.5 points$1.90
MULTI Adelaide Crows -40.5, Under 174.5 points & Riley Thilthorpe 2+ Goals$4.49
Player Prop Predictions
Taylor Walker two or more goals, $1.40. Three last start and a bag of five the game before, so Tank has his radar back. Two goals is well within him at $1.40 with Adelaide set to pile it on.
Riley Thilthorpe two or more goals, $1.25. Three last start and two the game before, cleared this market in three of his last six. That is the steady one I have anchored my multi on at $1.25 with Adelaide too strong across the ground.
Dyson Sharp 20 or more disposals, $2.37. Twenty one last start and twenty three before that, so the ball keeps finding him even when Essendon are getting run over. Twenty or more is live again at $2.37.
Izak Rankine to kick a goal, $1.31. Quiet last start but he had goaled in three of his previous games, and with Adelaide owning the footy he will get his looks. Any goal at $1.31.
Peter Wright two or more goals, $1.79. Two last start and three earlier in the run, so he keeps hitting the scoreboard even with his side under the pump. Two goals stacks up at $1.79.
The Props I Like
PROP Taylor Walker 2+ Goals$1.40
PROP Riley Thilthorpe 2+ Goals$1.25
PROP Dyson Sharp 20+ Disposals$2.37
PROP Izak Rankine Anytime Goal$1.31
PROP Peter Wright 2+ Goals$1.79
Player Props MultiRiley Thilthorpe 2+ Goals, Izak Rankine Anytime Goal & Taylor Walker 2+ Goals, my price $2.29
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows |
| Date | Sunday, August 2 |
| Kick-off | 4:40pm AEST |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 21 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Adelaide Crows -40.5, Under 174.5 points & Riley Thilthorpe 2+ Goals @ $4.49 |
| Predicted Score | Essendon Bombers 45 – Adelaide Crows 100 |
Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows FAQs
Who will win Essendon vs Adelaide?
Adelaide, and comfortably. They sit fifth and in form against an Essendon side sitting seventeenth that is missing troops and getting beaten heavily. I have the Crows winning by nine goals or more.
What is the best bet for Essendon vs Adelaide in Round 21?
My headline multi at $4.49 rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Riley Thilthorpe 2+ Goals. On its own, Adelaide Crows -40.5 at $1.89 is the anchor.
Where is the Essendon vs Adelaide Round 21 match being played?
The match is at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, bouncing down at 4:40pm on Sunday 2 August 2026.
Who is Essendon Bombers playing next week?
Essendon play Geelong - at GMHBA Stadium on Saturday 8 August in AFL Round 22.
Who is Adelaide Crows playing next week?
Adelaide play Richmond - at Adelaide Oval on Saturday 8 August in AFL Round 22.
