Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Collingwood vs North Melbourne Prediction
Scott Pendlebury is back and North lose George Wardlaw, and that swap tightens the one part of the ground the Kangaroos had a wrap on. But the Pies were already the better side here, and once you add up the rest, the 17.5 still reads a touch light to me.
AFL Round 18 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
COL
$1.39
Friday, July 10 • 7:40 pm
89 : 70
Marvel Stadium
NME
$3.04
Collingwood Magpies by 19 points
Model Predicted Margin
Collingwood Magpies by 19
Current Market
Collingwood Magpies -17.5
1.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HCollingwood Magpies
$1.39
LINECollingwood Magpies -17.5
$1.90
TOTALUnder 175.5 points
$1.90
MULTIMagpies Win, Magpies -17.5 & Under 175.5
$5.02
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
The Magpies have the midfield edge, the defensive numbers and a cold, still night working for them. I make them to cover the 17.5 on Friday.
This one turns on three things: the midfield, who wins the ugly stuff, and the conditions. All three point the one way tonight.
North’s one edge just got smaller
North win the centre clearances, 12.2 a game to Collingwood’s 11.1 this season, and that first use is how they made a one point game of it last time. But Wardlaw is out with a hamstring and Pendlebury is back from his calf, so the exact area North needed to win just narrowed. I don’t think they get the same run of it this time.
The Pies win the contest that decides tight ones
Collingwood do the ugly stuff better. They average 42.4 one percenters a game to North’s 37.8, the spoils and smothers that turn a loose game into a grind. When two sides are close through the middle, that defensive work is usually what covers a line. This is a second reason to be with the Pies, and it’s got nothing to do with the team news.
Cold night, low score, tight cover
I’ve got this 89 to 70. That’s 159 into a total of 175.5, so the under at $1.90 is the calmest bet on the page with plenty of room. The line is the tighter one. My margin is 19 against a line of 17.5, so that’s a point and a half in it, not a blowout. North’s ruck gives them 29.4 hit-outs a game to 25.9 and enough first use to hang around for a half. I still have the Pies covering, but I’m calling it a tight cover, not a walk.
Collingwood vs North Melbourne Tip
Collingwood to beat North Melbourne by around 19 points at Marvel Stadium, enough to cover the 17.5, in a game that stays under 175.5.
Collingwood vs North Melbourne Key Stats
CENTRE CLEARANCES
COL11
NME12
North win these 12.2 a game to Collingwood’s 11.1 this season, their one clear edge, and it’s the exact area the midfield change hits.
HIT-OUTS
COL26
NME29
North’s ruck wins the taps 29.4 a game to 25.9, which feeds that first use, so Collingwood have to scrap it back at ground level.
ONE PERCENTERS
COL42
NME38
Collingwood do the defensive work better, 42.4 a game to 37.8, and that edge in spoils and smothers is what covers a line in a tight one.
Collingwood vs North Melbourne Form Guide
Collingwood Magpies
WWWLL
- W 104-98 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 106-72 vs Richmond
- W 78-52 vs Port Adelaide
- L 75-83 vs Melbourne
- L 93-97 vs Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne Kangaroos
LWWWL
- L 52-73 vs Port Adelaide
- W 79-65 vs Essendon
- W 73-48 vs Richmond
- W 74-73 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 31-155 vs Fremantle
Michael’s Verdict
Collingwood to cover the 17.5 at $1.90 is the bet. I make the margin 19, so it’s a tight cover rather than a blowout, but the midfield swing, the defensive edge and the conditions all sit on the Pies’ side. If you want a longer price, the same read rolls into the Magpies Multi at $5.02. The under 175.5 is the most comfortable leg of the lot.
Our Bets
H2H Collingwood Magpies$1.39
LINE Collingwood Magpies -17.5$1.90
TOTAL Under 175.5 points$1.90
MULTI Magpies Win, Magpies -17.5 & Under 175.5$5.02
Key Facts
| Match | Collingwood Magpies vs North Melbourne Kangaroos |
| Date | Friday, July 10 |
| Kick-off | 7:40 pm AEST |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 18 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Collingwood -17.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Collingwood Magpies 89 – North Melbourne Kangaroos 70 |
Collingwood Magpies vs North Melbourne Kangaroos FAQs
Who will win Collingwood vs North Melbourne?
I’m tipping Collingwood by around 19 points at Marvel Stadium on Friday night. The midfield swing this week narrows North’s main edge, and the Pies do the defensive work and handle the conditions better, so I’ve got them clear for most of the night.
What is the best bet for Collingwood vs North Melbourne in Round 18?
Collingwood to cover the 17.5 at $1.90 is my best bet. I make the margin 19, so it’s a tight cover, backed by the defensive numbers and the cold conditions. If you want a longer price, the head to head, line and under 175.5 roll into a Magpies Multi at $5.02.
Where is the Collingwood vs North Melbourne Round 18 match being played?
The match is at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, kicking off at 7:40pm on Friday 10 July 2026. It’s a clear, cold night with no rain about.
