Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Carlton vs Hawthorn Prediction
Carlton meet Hawthorn at the MCG off five straight wins and the whole town wants the run to roll on. Hawthorn are the better side and they have owned this matchup, so I’m taking the visitors to cover the line.
AFL Round 18 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
CAR
$2.51
Saturday, July 11 • 7:35 pm
75 : 95
MCG
HAW
$1.53
Hawthorn Hawks by 20 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn Hawks by 20
Current Market
Carlton Blues +13.5
6.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HHawthorn Hawks
$1.53
LINEHawthorn Hawks -10.5
$1.89
TOTALOver 160.5 points
$1.93
MULTIHawks Win, Hawks -10.5 & Over 160.5
$5.58
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Carlton roll in having won their last five and everyone wants the run to keep going. Hawthorn have beaten them three straight, by 24, 20 and 74, and I’m siding with the side that keeps doing it.
Carlton’s five straight is real and I respect it, but respect doesn’t mean I back it blind into a side that keeps beating them by plenty. Here is where I think the value sits.
Hawthorn keep beating Carlton
The last three meetings have gone the Hawks’ way, by 24, then 20, then 74. That’s not a rivalry, it’s a habit. Carlton’s run is real, but Saturday night is a different test against the one side that keeps finding a way through them.
First use is where it is won
Hawthorn average 45.3 hit-outs a game to Carlton’s 29.3, and they turn that into first hands at the coalface. Win the tap, win the clearance, and the ball spends the night going the other way. It shows up further up the ground too, 56.4 inside 50s a game to Carlton’s 51.8, and over four quarters that gap tells on the scoreboard.
Impey and Amon firm the call
Hawthorn get creative defenders Jarman Impey and Karl Amon back into the back half. Both are clean users coming out of defence, which adds some rebound to their side.
The total and the one worry
I make the scoreboard tick past 160.5, because Hawthorn keep the supply coming and Carlton can score in bursts of their own. The worry is the sky. If the rain sets in it is the over that feels it first, and a scrappy wet one could drag the margin closer than I’d like.
Carlton vs Hawthorn Tip
I’ve got Hawthorn by around three goals and covering the 10.5 line, because they win the ruck and the territory. They average 45.3 hit-outs to Carlton’s 29.3 and 56.4 inside 50s to 51.8 across the season, and first use of the ball is where their night starts.
Carlton vs Hawthorn Key Stats
HIT-OUTS
CAR29
HAW45
Hawthorn average 45.3 hit-outs a game this season to Carlton’s 29.3. That is 16 more taps a night, and first use is where they get on top.
INSIDE 50S
CAR52
HAW56
56.4 inside 50s a game for Hawthorn to Carlton’s 51.8 this season. The footy spends longer in the Hawks’ forward half, and that is how they stay on top.
GOALS
CAR12
HAW14
Hawthorn average 14 goals a game to Carlton’s 11.7 this season. That scoring power backs both the margin and the total going over.
Carlton vs Hawthorn Form Guide
Carlton Blues
WWWWW
- W 74-72 vs Richmond
- W 117-64 vs West Coast Eagles
- W 88-65 vs GWS Giants
- W 72-67 vs Essendon
- W 88-84 vs Geelong Cats
Hawthorn Hawks
LWWLW
- L 90-125 vs Melbourne
- W 96-82 vs GWS Giants
- W 113-97 vs Gold Coast Suns
- L 71-77 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 119-67 vs St Kilda
Michael’s Verdict
Give me Hawthorn. They win the ruck, they win the territory, and they walk in with their rebounders back in the side. Carlton’s run is the danger and a wet deck could keep it tighter than I’d like, but the better side has had Carlton’s number and I’m not backing a hot run to flip that.
Our Bets
H2H Hawthorn Hawks$1.53
LINE Hawthorn Hawks -10.5$1.89
TOTAL Over 160.5 points$1.93
MULTI Hawks Win, Hawks -10.5 & Over 160.5$5.58
Key Facts
| Match | Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks |
| Date | Saturday, July 11 |
| Kick-off | 7:35 pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 18 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Hawthorn Multi: H2H + Line + Over 160.5 @ $5.58 |
| Predicted Score | Carlton Blues 75 – Hawthorn Hawks 95 |
Carlton Blues vs Hawthorn Hawks FAQs
Who will win Carlton vs Hawthorn?
I’m tipping Hawthorn to win by around three goals at the MCG. Carlton arrive having won their last five, but the Hawks have taken the last three meetings and average 45.3 hit-outs a game to Carlton’s 29.3.
What is the best bet for Carlton vs Hawthorn in Round 18?
Hawthorn to cover the 10.5 line at $1.89 is my best bet. I make the margin about 20 points, and the Hawks have won the last three meetings by 24, 20 and 74.
Where is the Carlton vs Hawthorn Round 18 match being played?
The match is at the MCG in Melbourne, kicking off at 7:35pm on Saturday 11 July 2026.
