Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Brisbane vs Sydney Prediction
Brisbane host Sydney at the Gabba on Thursday night and the model has the Swans winning by 2. The market has the Lions winning by 1.5. This is a genuine coin toss where the model and the market disagree on the winner.
AFL Round 16 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
BRL
$1.85
Thursday, June 25 • 7:30 pm
97 : 99
Gabba
SYD
$2.00
Sydney Swans by 2 points
Model Predicted Margin
Sydney Swans by 2
Current Market
Brisbane Lions -1.5
0.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HSydney Swans
$2.00
LINESydney Swans +1.5
$1.90
TOTALOver 184.5 points
$1.89
MULTISwans Win, Swans +1.5 & Over 184.5
$7.18
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Model and Market Split on the Winner, the Swans Roll into the Gabba Red Hot, and the Lions Limp in off Three Straight Losses.
The model and the market do not agree on this one. The line has the Lions by 1.5 at home. The model has the Swans by 2 on the road. That is a narrow gap, but it sits on top of two form stories pulling in opposite directions.
Brisbane sit 8th at 8 and 6 and have lost the last three on the trot. The damage in that run reads 78 to 103 against Fremantle, 88 to 166 against GWS, and 76 to 117 against Geelong. A team shipping that kind of scoreline three weeks running is hard to back, even at home.
Sydney sit 2nd at 12 and 2 with momentum at 105.4 and four wins from the last five. The standout in that window is a 170 to 56 dismantling of Richmond, alongside tight wins over Port Adelaide and Collingwood. This is a side scoring at will and defending the back half.
The counter is real. Sydney carry a 732 kilometre trip into a Gabba where Brisbane have historically been tough, and the rest break is near even at 11 days to 12. Home ground at the Gabba is the one lever keeping the market on the Lions.
Historical head to head sits 2 to 1 the Swans’ way across the last three meetings, including a 92 to 90 win at this exact Gabba fixture.
Brisbane vs Sydney Tip
Back the Sydney Swans in the head to head at $2.00; the model has the Swans winning by 2 at the Gabba against a Brisbane side that has lost its last three.
Brisbane vs Sydney Key Stats
LADDER POSITION
BRL50
SYD50
Sydney sit 2nd at 12 and 2. Brisbane have slid to 8th at 8 and 6 after dropping the last three.
MOMENTUM
BRL94
SYD105
Sydney hold an 11 point momentum edge. The Swans are scoring freely while the Lions have leaked 117, 166 and 103 across their losing run.
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
BRL40%
SYD80%
Sydney are four from five including a 170 to 56 demolition of Richmond. Brisbane have won two of their last five and none of the last three.
Brisbane vs Sydney Form Guide
Brisbane Lions
WWLLL
- W 115-80 vs Richmond
- W 106-75 vs Gold Coast Suns
- L 78-103 vs Fremantle
- L 88-166 vs GWS Giants
- L 76-117 vs Geelong Cats
Sydney Swans
WWWLW
- W 93-90 vs Port Adelaide
- W 104-102 vs St Kilda
- W 170-56 vs Richmond
- L 80-107 vs Geelong Cats
- W 81-75 vs Collingwood
Final Verdict
No real value at $2.00 once you weigh the thin model margin and the Gabba home edge. Gun to our head, take the Swans in the head to head and trust the form line.
Our Bets
H2H Sydney Swans$2.00
LINE Sydney Swans +1.5$1.90
TOTAL Over 184.5 points$1.89
MULTI Swans Win, Swans +1.5 & Over 184.5$7.18
Up Next Tips and Predictions
Key Facts
| Match | Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans |
| Date | Thursday, June 25 |
| Kick-off | 7:30 pm AEST |
| Venue | The Gabba |
| Round | AFL Round 16 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Sydney Swans H2H @ $2.00 |
| Predicted Score | Brisbane Lions 97 – Sydney Swans 99 |
Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans FAQs
Who will win Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans?
Our model tips the Sydney Swans to win by 2 points at the Gabba. Sydney sit 2nd on the ladder at 12 and 2 and have won four of their last five. Brisbane sit 8th at 8 and 6 and have lost their last three.
What is the tip for Brisbane vs Sydney in Round 16?
Sydney Swans in the head to head at $2.00 is our recommended pick. The model has the Swans by 2, the market has Brisbane by 1.5, and this is a fixture where model and market disagree on the winner.
Where is the Brisbane vs Sydney Round 16 match being played?
The match is at the Gabba in Brisbane, kicking off at 7:30pm on Thursday 25 June 2026.
