Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Brisbane vs Hawthorn Prediction
A side that lost by seventy six points last week should not be favourite against a team sitting two spots above them. Brisbane are favourite anyway, and I reckon they are still not short enough. Brisbane to cover the five and a half at $1.89 is where I am, even with Hawthorn winning four of their last five.
AFL Round 22 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
BRL
$1.68
Friday, August 7 • 7:40pm AEST
107 : 91
The Gabba
HAW
$2.19
Brisbane Lions by 16 points
Model Predicted Margin
Brisbane Lions by 16
Current Market
Brisbane Lions -5.5
10.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HBrisbane Lions
$1.68
LINEBrisbane Lions -5.5
$1.89
TOTALOver 186.5 points
$1.89
MULTIBrisbane Lions -5.5, Over 186.5 points & Jack Ginnivan 20+ Disposals
$6.75
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Brisbane Lost By Seventy Six Points And Are Still Favourite At The Gabba. I Reckon They Are Still Not Short Enough.
Everyone has spent the week on what Carlton did to Brisbane. It counts, I am not pretending otherwise. But Dayne Zorko was managed that week and he walks straight back in tonight, and the month before that loss looked nothing like it.
The Gabba is the whole argument
Brisbane have taken the last three meetings between these two 2-1, including the most recent by ten points. Hawthorn are flying north for a Friday night at a ground Brisbane know better than anyone. All of that has been priced at five and a half points.
Last week counts, it just does not decide this
Brisbane got belted by seventy six points and Hawthorn have won four of their last five. Read only those two lines and you would be on Hawthorn. But in the four weeks before Carlton, Brisbane beat Port Adelaide, West Coast, Essendon and Geelong, two of those by fifty or more, and they do that with a midfield closer to the one running out here. One bad week does not undo the month in front of it.
Brisbane win it at the source
Brisbane get first hands on it at the centre bounce, and that is where a game between two sides this close gets settled. Win the middle and you choose where the football goes and how quick it gets there. Hawthorn have to win it back off a side that is happy to keep it moving.
This one should not stay quiet
Neither of these teams has been scoring like a defensive outfit. Brisbane went past 120 in three of their last five and Hawthorn have done it twice in the same window. A clear, still night at the Gabba does the over no harm, and 186.5 looks a touch short for two sides in this sort of form. It is a separate bet to the line though. Covering and going over are two different arguments and I am not going to pretend one proves the other.
Brisbane vs Hawthorn Tip
I’ve got Brisbane by around two and a half goals. The reigning premiers at their own ground, against a side that has to fly up for a Friday night, is worth more than the five and a half this market is asking me to hand over.
Brisbane vs Hawthorn Key Stats
CENTRE CLEARANCES
BRL15
HAW13
Brisbane getting first hands on it out of the middle means more of their passages start going forward, and the side that starts with the football sets the tempo.
CONTESTED MARKS
BRL11
HAW10
Brisbane can win it in the air inside forward 50, and that is the quickest way to turn territory into a score.
TACKLES
BRL48
HAW59
This is the one that cuts against me. Hawthorn hunt harder without the football, and if Brisbane get caught holding it the margin tightens fast.
Brisbane vs Hawthorn Form Guide
Brisbane Lions
LWWWW
- R21: L 78-154 vs Carlton
- R20: W 126-67 vs Port Adelaide
- R19: W 93-69 vs West Coast Eagles
- R18: W 149-59 vs Essendon
- R17: W 123-101 vs Geelong Cats
Hawthorn Hawks
WWWWL
- R21: W 99-83 vs North Melbourne
- R20: W 132-39 vs Essendon
- R19: W 122-52 vs Richmond
- R18: W 103-39 vs Carlton
- R17: L 90-125 vs Melbourne
Michael’s Verdict
Team news does not move me off it. Hawthorn get four back in and none of them turn the argument around. Brisbane are without Hugh McCluggage through the middle, which is a real loss, and Zorko coming back in covers a fair bit of it. The one thing that beats me here is Hawthorn’s work at the contest without the football, because that is the best thing either side brings. I am still on Brisbane to cover.
Our Bets
H2H Brisbane Lions$1.68
LINE Brisbane Lions -5.5$1.89
TOTAL Over 186.5 points$1.89
MULTI Brisbane Lions -5.5, Over 186.5 points & Jack Ginnivan 20+ Disposals$6.75
Player Prop Predictions
Sam Draper to kick a goal, $2.00. A goal last start, and he’s found one in four of his last seven, so the touch is there. Brisbane camped in their forward half at the Gabba makes even money fair.
Kai Lohmann three or more goals, $3.45. Three or more in four of his last seven, and there’s a five in that run, so the ceiling is real. If I’m right about Brisbane by two and a half goals at home, he’s the one feasting.
Will Ashcroft two or more goals, $5.60. Two last start and two again the week before, so he’s hitting the scoreboard right now. Two or more in four of his last seven at $5.60 is too much value to walk past.
Logan Morris three or more goals, $2.60. Goalless last start, but three or more in four of his last seven says one quiet night changes nothing. Back him at $2.60 with the premiers expected to control it.
Jack Ginnivan 20 or more disposals, $1.89. Nineteen last start, one short, and 20 or more in four of his last seven, so he lives right on this number. That is exactly the sort of steady leg I want anchoring the multi at $1.89.
The Props I Like
PROP Sam Draper Anytime Goal$2.00
PROP Kai Lohmann 3+ Goals$3.45
PROP Will Ashcroft 2+ Goals$5.60
PROP Logan Morris 3+ Goals$2.60
PROP Jack Ginnivan 20+ Disposals$1.89
Player Props MultiJack Ginnivan 20+ Disposals, Sam Draper Anytime Goal & Logan Morris 3+ Goals, my price $9.83
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks |
| Date | Friday, August 7 |
| Kick-off | 7:40pm AEST |
| Venue | The Gabba |
| Round | AFL Round 22 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Brisbane Lions -5.5, Over 186.5 points & Jack Ginnivan 20+ Disposals @ $6.75 |
| Predicted Score | Brisbane Lions 107 – Hawthorn Hawks 91 |
Brisbane Lions vs Hawthorn Hawks FAQs
Who will win Brisbane vs Hawthorn?
Brisbane. I’ve got the home side by around two and a half goals at the Gabba, and Brisbane have taken the last three meetings between these two 2-1.
What is the best bet for Brisbane vs Hawthorn in Round 22?
My headline multi at $6.75 rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Jack Ginnivan 20+ Disposals. On its own, Brisbane Lions -5.5 at $1.89 is the anchor.
Where is the Brisbane vs Hawthorn Round 22 match being played?
The match is at the Gabba in Brisbane, kicking off at 7:40pm AEST on Friday 7 August 2026.
What happens to the bet if the weather turns wet?
The line bet holds up, because it does not need a shootout to get there. The over is the leg that suffers, so if it comes up wet I would leave the multi alone and just take Brisbane to cover.
What is the risk in backing Brisbane?
Hawthorn’s work at the contest without the football. They hunt harder in that part of the game than Brisbane do, and if Brisbane get sloppy with it that is how this turns into a two goal game late.
Who is Brisbane Lions playing next week?
Brisbane play Gold Coast - at the Gabba on Saturday 15 August in AFL Round 23.
Who is Hawthorn Hawks playing next week?
Hawthorn play Collingwood - at the MCG on Saturday 15 August in AFL Round 23.
