Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Brisbane vs Gold Coast Prediction
Brisbane host Gold Coast at the Gabba on Saturday afternoon and the question was never who wins it. The bookies want the Lions to clear 32.5 points and that is more than I will hand over in a QClash. It is a thin call and I will tell you why I am still on it rather than pretend it is a gap.
AFL Round 23 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
BRL
$1.18
Saturday, August 15 • 4:15pm AEST
117 : 86
The Gabba
GCS
$4.90
Brisbane Lions by 31 points
Model Predicted Margin
Brisbane Lions by 31
Current Market
Brisbane Lions -32.5
1.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HBrisbane Lions
$1.18
LINEGold Coast Suns +32.5
$1.91
TOTALOver 189.5 points
$1.89
MULTIBrisbane Lions Win, Over 189.5 points & Ben King 2+ Goals
$3.14
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Brisbane Win This One. Thirty Two and a Half Points Is Still More Than I Am Willing to Give Away.
Brisbane win this one.
The only argument worth having is how far, and the bookies have picked a number I would not. Brisbane being the better side in the air and out of the middle tells me who wins. It does not tell me they win by six goals.
A Point and a Half, and Why I’m Still On It
I have Brisbane by 31. The line asks them for 32.5. That is a point and a half, which is thin, and I would rather say that than sell you a gap that is not there.
So the margin alone is not the reason. The reason is that Brisbane blow hot and cold, and Gold Coast are the kind of side that keeps moving the ball when a game starts getting away from them. Six goals is a long way to run when the favourite has a bad half in them.
The Case Against Me Is What Brisbane Do to People
Look at the Lions on this page: 125 on Hawthorn last start, 126 on Port Adelaide, 149 on Essendon. They have won the last three meetings with Gold Coast and one of those was a 53 point belting. Backing the Suns to stay within six goals of that is not a comfortable place to sit.
What keeps me there is that Brisbane are not a metronome. Carlton beat them by 76 two rounds ago. A side that can be done by twelve goals is a side that can also just win a QClash by five.
The Team News That Moves the Bet
Sam Collins is named in the Suns back half after missing the win over GWS with a rib injury. The thing that turns a 32.5 point line into a 60 point loss is a defence that gets picked apart in the first quarter, and having him back changes how they hold up early. That is the piece of team news that matters to this bet.
The Over Is Not a Free Swing
Brisbane have gone past 125 twice in their last five and Gold Coast put 105 on Melbourne and 97 on Carlton inside that same stretch. Neither of these sides is built to shut a game down.
A Suns side that scores like that is the same Suns side that keeps a big line honest, which is why the total and the points sit on the one read rather than pulling against each other.
Brisbane vs Gold Coast Tip
I’m tipping Brisbane by 31, which leaves Gold Coast and the points a point and a half on the right side of the line.
Brisbane vs Gold Coast Key Stats
CONTESTED MARKS
BRL11
GCS8
Brisbane are the better side in the air and that is the reason they win, not the reason they bury it. An edge in the air pays out a goal at a time, and Gold Coast can wear that for four quarters.
CENTRE CLEARANCES
BRL15
GCS12
First use out of the middle is Brisbane’s edge and I am not pretending otherwise. It buys them the start of quarters. What it does not buy them is the last twenty minutes, and that is where a line this big gets settled.
HANDBALLS
BRL133
GCS163
Gold Coast get it moving by hand, and that is the trait that stops a squeeze turning into a hiding. A side that can handball its way out of trouble keeps scoring while it is losing, which is exactly what this bet needs.
Brisbane vs Gold Coast Form Guide
Brisbane Lions
WLWWW
- R22: W 125-58 vs Hawthorn
- R21: L 78-154 vs Carlton
- R20: W 126-67 vs Port Adelaide
- R19: W 93-69 vs West Coast Eagles
- R18: W 149-59 vs Essendon
Gold Coast Suns
WLLLL
- R22: W 79-77 vs GWS Giants
- R21: L 105-114 vs Melbourne
- R20: L 97-110 vs Carlton
- R19: L 68-77 vs Western Bulldogs
- R18: L 49-128 vs Adelaide Crows
Michael’s Verdict
I want the Lions winning it, Gold Coast taking the points, and the total going over 189.5. My margin is 31 against a line of 32.5, so this is a point and a half and I am not dressing it up as more than that. What gets me on it is that Brisbane are not a metronome and Gold Coast have been scoring well enough to stay in games. The risk is the version of Brisbane that put 149 on Essendon turning up and burying this before half time. If that happens I lose the line and I probably still collect the total.
Our Bets
H2H Brisbane Lions$1.18
LINE Gold Coast Suns +32.5$1.91
TOTAL Over 189.5 points$1.89
MULTI Brisbane Lions Win, Over 189.5 points & Ben King 2+ Goals$3.14
Player Prop Predictions
Ethan Read to kick a goal, $1.70. He’s found a goal in two of his last four and one of those was a double, so the ceiling is there for a bloke who only needs the one. At $1.70 that single major is the whole job.
Ben King two or more goals, $1.41. Two last start, two the week before that, and two or more in four of his last seven. Steady as they come, and $1.41 reflects it.
Bailey Humphrey two or more goals, $2.55. Two last start off the same seven game run as King, four of them with a double or better, yet you’re getting $2.55 instead of odds on. Same recent output, much better price.
Jed Walter two or more goals, $1.96. One last start doesn’t scare me off a bloke who kicks in bunches: two or more in four of his last seven, with three on the board twice inside that run. Fair value at $1.96.
Logan Morris three or more goals, $1.99. Four last start, and at least three in four of his last seven. I’m tipping Brisbane by 31, and someone has to kick that score, so $1.99 is the play.
The Props I Like
PROP Ethan Read Anytime Goal$1.70
PROP Ben King 2+ Goals$1.41
PROP Bailey Humphrey 2+ Goals$2.55
PROP Jed Walter 2+ Goals$1.96
PROP Logan Morris 3+ Goals$1.99
Player Props MultiBen King 2+ Goals, Jed Walter 2+ Goals & Logan Morris 3+ Goals, my price $5.50
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns |
| Date | Saturday, August 15 |
| Kick-off | 4:15pm AEST |
| Venue | The Gabba |
| Round | AFL Round 23 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Brisbane Lions Win, Over 189.5 points & Ben King 2+ Goals @ $3.14 |
| Predicted Score | Brisbane Lions 117 – Gold Coast Suns 86 |
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns FAQs
Who will win Brisbane vs Gold Coast?
I’m tipping Brisbane by 31 points at the Gabba. The Lions have won the last three meetings between these two and they are the better side in the air and out of the middle. The catch is that 31 does not get them over a line of 32.5.
What is the best bet for Brisbane vs Gold Coast in Round 23?
My headline multi at $3.14 takes the straight win with the total and a player prop, Ben King 2+ Goals. The win leg anchors it this week; the line bet on the card still stands as its own play.
Where is the best price on Gold Coast plus the points?
Shop it before you take it. The 32.5 at $1.91 is the number I am working off and it was correct when I wrote this, but lines move on the morning and one bookie’s 32.5 is another’s 33.5. Check the number in front of you, because a point either way is a different bet.
Will Brisbane vs Gold Coast go over 189.5 points?
I think so. Brisbane have gone past 125 twice in their last five and Gold Coast put 105 on Melbourne and 97 on Carlton in that same stretch. Neither side shuts a game down, so the over 189.5 at $1.89 sits on the same read as the points.
Where is the Brisbane vs Gold Coast Round 23 match being played?
The match is at the Gabba in Brisbane, bouncing down at 4:15pm AEST on Saturday 15 August 2026.
Who is Brisbane Lions playing next week?
Brisbane play Collingwood - at the MCG on Friday 21 August in AFL Round 24.
Who is Gold Coast Suns playing next week?
Gold Coast play St Kilda - at Marvel Stadium on Thursday 20 August in AFL Round 24.
