Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Brisbane vs Essendon Prediction
Nobody needs a tip on the winner at the Gabba this afternoon. The line is the real market: 62.5 is enormous, and in the last three meetings between these two, Brisbane have cleared it exactly once.
AFL Round 18 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
BRL
$1.02
Sunday, July 12 • 4:40pm AEST
115 : 65
Gabba
ESS
$15.00
Brisbane Lions by 50 points
Model Predicted Margin
Brisbane Lions by 50
Current Market
Brisbane Lions -62.5
12.5 pts tighter
Our Bets This Game
H2HBrisbane Lions
$1.02
LINEEssendon Bombers +62.5
$1.89
TOTALUnder 187.5 points
$1.90
MULTILions Win, Bombers +62.5 & Under 187.5
$3.66
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Brisbane have won the last three against Essendon, and only one of those cleared 62.5. Ten and a half goals is where this line stops being about who wins.
At $1.02 the head to head is not a market, it’s a receipt. The real bet is whether Essendon can lose by less than ten and a half goals, and I think they can.
A hiding and a cover are different things
I’ve got Brisbane winning by eight goals and change, and that still leaves the +62.5 on the right side of the line. Look at how Essendon lose to this Brisbane: two of the last three meetings landed at 18 and 20 points, sides that hung in and got beaten, not blown off the park. A 62.5 point margin needs everything to go one way for four quarters, and that is a lot to pay even money for.
The risk: Brisbane have cleared it before
The most recent meeting is the problem, because Brisbane put 64 points on Essendon earlier this season. They arrive off four straight wins with an attack kicking more than fifteen goals a game, so if Essendon go missing for a half, this line gets swallowed whole. That is the honest risk in the bet.
Five changes, one modest job
Essendon have swung five changes for this trip, Ben McKay axed among them, and reshuffled sides at the Gabba usually cop pain. But the job here is modest: around a dozen goals of resistance keeps them inside the line and the game under 187.5. With Darcy Gardiner out of the Brisbane defence for a month, even this Essendon attack should manage that.
Brisbane vs Essendon Tip
Brisbane to win by around 50 points, which puts Essendon plus 62.5 at $1.89 on the right side of the line while the Lions take the head to head.
Brisbane vs Essendon Key Stats
GOALS
BRL15
ESS10
Brisbane average 15.3 goals a game this season, but Essendon’s 10.2 is exactly the resistance the +62.5 leans on.
CLEARANCES
BRL41
ESS32
Brisbane win ten more clearances a game than Essendon this season, 41.3 to 31.5, which is why the winner was never the question here.
MARKS INSIDE 50
BRL13
ESS10
Brisbane average 13.3 marks inside 50 a game this season to Essendon’s 10.3; that edge close to goal is what blows the line and the total open if Essendon’s defence cracks early.
Brisbane vs Essendon Form Guide
Brisbane Lions
WWWWL
- W 123-101 vs Geelong Cats
- W 126-83 vs Sydney Swans
- W 115-80 vs Richmond
- W 106-75 vs Gold Coast Suns
- L 78-103 vs Fremantle
Essendon Bombers
LLLLL
- L 50-117 vs St Kilda
- L 65-79 vs North Melbourne
- L 50-95 vs Melbourne
- L 67-72 vs Carlton
- L 55-85 vs West Coast Eagles
Michael’s Verdict
Brisbane win this from the first bounce to the last, and nothing about $1.02 interests me. Essendon plus the 62.5 at $1.89 is the real bet, backed by two of the last three meetings, and the under rounds out the multi at $3.66. Big line, modest ask.
Our Bets
H2H Brisbane Lions$1.02
LINE Essendon Bombers +62.5$1.89
TOTAL Under 187.5 points$1.90
MULTI Lions Win, Bombers +62.5 & Under 187.5$3.66
Key Facts
| Match | Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers |
| Date | Sunday, July 12 |
| Kick-off | 4:40pm AEST |
| Venue | The Gabba |
| Round | AFL Round 18 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Brisbane Lions Multi: H2H + Bombers +62.5 + Under 187.5 @ $3.66 |
| Predicted Score | Brisbane Lions 115 – Essendon Bombers 65 |
Brisbane Lions vs Essendon Bombers FAQs
Who will win Brisbane vs Essendon?
I’m tipping Brisbane to win by around 50 points at the Gabba. The Lions have won the last three meetings between these clubs and come in on four straight wins.
What is the best bet for Brisbane vs Essendon in Round 18?
My best bet is Essendon plus 62.5 at $1.89. Brisbane win comfortably, but only one of the last three meetings between these sides cleared that line, and heavy beatings and a 62.5 point cover are different things.
Where is Brisbane vs Essendon being played?
The match is at the Gabba in Brisbane, kicking off at 4:40pm on Sunday 12 July 2026.
