AFL Betting Tips Finals Week 3

Michael Kruse
Updated 15 September 2026

AFL Preliminary Finals: Tips and Predictions

The preliminary finals decide the Grand Final. Two games, both hosted by a qualifying final winner, both against a side that has had to win its way there.

Who is already in

  • Hawthorn, after beating Fremantle at Optus Stadium in a qualifying final
  • Sydney, after beating Brisbane by 53 points at the SCG

Both had last weekend off and both host. That is the reward for winning a qualifying final, and in a five week series it is worth a great deal more than it looks on paper.

Who came through the semi finals

  • Fremantle, who travel to Sydney on Friday 18 September.
  • Brisbane, who travel to Hawthorn on Saturday 19 September.

Fremantle finished on top of the ladder and have had to win a semi final to stay alive, which is the hardest road left in the draw. Brisbane were well beaten by Sydney in the qualifying final and have answered it.


What I am watching

The side that comes out of a semi final has played an extra game and has to travel to a rested opponent. That is a real disadvantage and it shows up most in the last quarter. It is also survivable, and teams have done it.

The other thing worth holding onto: the two teams already through were the two best sides on qualifying final weekend by a distance. Neither scraped in.

Both preliminary finals are tipped in full, with the write-up and the play I like on each.

Sydney v Fremantle prediction - Afl tips sydney vs fremantle prediction 18 09 26

Hawthorn v Brisbane prediction - Afl tips hawthorn vs brisbane prediction 19 09 26

My semi final tips - Afl tips afl tips finals week 2

The Grand Final is at the MCG on Saturday 26 September.


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Author Michael Kruse

Michael founded KRUZEY after 15+ years betting on Australian racing - most of it learning expensive lessons the hard way. He's obsessive about form analysis and has a soft spot for finding value in the quaddie markets everyone else ignores. At KRUZEY, Michael covers racing tips, bookmaker reviews, and anything involving crunching numbers to find an edge. He's up before dawn most race days studying the fields, and reckons a well-constructed quaddie is one of life's simple pleasures. Connect on LinkedIn Email Contact