Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Richmond vs Adelaide Prediction – Round 9 2026
AFL Round 9 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
RICH
$5.75
Sunday, May 10
52 : 93
MCG
ADEL
$1.14
Adelaide Crows by 41 points
Model Predicted Margin
Adelaide Crows by 41
Current Market
Richmond +35.5
5.5 pts edge
Best BetLINE BETTING
Best Bet: Adelaide Crows -35.5 @ $1.90
Our model has Adelaide winning by 41, giving us 5.5 points of edge over the market line against the worst team in the comp.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes - Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Tigers vs Crows Prediction: Richmond’s Season Hit Rock Bottom | AFL Round 9
Adelaide put 122 on Richmond in Round 16 last year. Tom Lynch got reported for punching Jordon Butts in a game that was over by half time. Nothing about this fixture suggests that gap has closed.
Richmond are 1-7 and sitting dead last. Their momentum rating is the lowest in the comp by a country mile, and they’re being outworked in every phase. Adelaide’s edge in contested ball is enormous – the kind of gap that turns games into processions. The Crows won’t need to be brilliant. They just need to show up.
The risk is Adelaide’s inconsistency. They lost to Fremantle by two and got belted by Brisbane. On an off day against a team with nothing to lose, the margin could shrink. But Richmond haven’t shown they can sustain pressure for four quarters against anyone.
The line is 35.5. Our model says 41. That’s five and a half points of daylight, and the unders play at 180.5 looks even juicier – our model total is 145. Richmond simply don’t score enough to push this anywhere near 180.
Tigers vs Crows Tip
Adelaide by 41 – Richmond have just one win from their last five and the Crows’ contested possession dominance will suffocate them at the MCG.
Tigers vs Crows Key Stats
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS
RICH122
ADEL138
Adelaide’s 15-possession edge in the contest is where they’ll strangle Richmond’s ball movement.
GOALS PER GAME
RICH9
ADEL13
Richmond averaging just 9.3 goals explains why the total should stay well under 180.5.
TACKLES PER GAME
RICH52
ADEL64
Adelaide’s relentless tackling pressure will punish Richmond’s ball carriers and force turnovers.
Tigers vs Crows Form Guide
Richmond Tigers
WLLLL
- W 99-88 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 72-126 vs Melbourne
- L 55-130 vs North Melbourne
- L 75-131 vs GWS Giants
- L 48-90 vs Port Adelaide
Adelaide Crows
WLWWL
- W 76-75 vs Port Adelaide
- L 75-127 vs Brisbane Lions
- W 103-102 vs St Kilda
- W 114-86 vs Carlton
- L 76-78 vs Fremantle
Final Verdict
Adelaide cover the line and the total stays well under. Two bets, both with edge – the unders might be the sharpest play of the round.
LOCK IT IN: Adelaide Crows -35.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows |
| Date | Sunday, May 10 |
| Venue | MCG |
| Our Tip | Adelaide Crows -35.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Richmond Tigers 52 – Adelaide Crows 93 |
Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows FAQs
Who will win Richmond vs Adelaide Crows?
Adelaide Crows are predicted to win by 41 points. Richmond have won just one of their last eight games and sit last on the ladder, while Adelaide’s contested possession dominance should control the game from start to finish.
What is the predicted score for Richmond vs Adelaide Crows?
Our model predicts Richmond 52 to Adelaide 93, a total of 145. That’s well below the market total of 180.5, making the unders a strong play alongside the Crows’ line bet.
What are the best bets for Richmond vs Adelaide Crows Round 9?
Adelaide Crows -35.5 at $1.90 is the best bet, with our model finding 5.5 points of edge. The unders at 180.5 is also sharp value – our model total of 145 sits 35 points below the market line.
Verified result – Round 9
We tipped Adelaide Crows to win – correct. Final score: Richmond Tigers 61 – Adelaide Crows 98.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Adelaide Crows -35.5 @ $1.90 | Win | +0.90u |
Predicted: Richmond Tigers 52 – Adelaide Crows 93. Off by 4 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
