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Gold Coast vs St Kilda Prediction – Round 9 2026
AFL Round 9 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
GCFC
$1.39
Saturday, May 9
96 : 85
TIO Stadium
STK
$3.02
Gold Coast SUNS by 11 points
Model Predicted Margin
Gold Coast SUNS by 11
Current Market
Gold Coast SUNS -17.5
6.5 pts tighter
Best BetLINE BETTING
Best Bet: St Kilda Saints +17.5 @ $1.91
Our model has Gold Coast winning by 11, giving us 6.5 points of value against the market line.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes - Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Suns vs Saints Prediction: Darwin Heat Won’t Melt This Line | AFL Round 9
Noah Anderson owned St Kilda last time these two met – 36 disposals and 11 clearances in a 19-point Suns win at Marvel. Gold Coast have taken two of the last three meetings comfortably. But 17.5 points is a different conversation to winning.
St Kilda’s recent form is quietly better than Gold Coast’s. The Saints have won three of five including dismantling West Coast by 101 and beating Port in Adelaide. The Suns have dropped three of five and haven’t looked convincing outside that Essendon shootout. The market’s priced this like the Suns are flying. They’re not.
Gold Coast’s inside 50 advantage is real – nearly seven more entries per game – and in Darwin’s heat that forward pressure matters. But St Kilda’s efficiency once they get inside 50 is actually superior, which narrows the scoring gap.
The risk is Darwin itself. TIO Stadium in 28-degree heat is as close to a fortress as Gold Coast get. If the Saints can’t handle the conditions, discipline goes and the margin blows out.
Our model has this at 11. The books say 17.5. That’s six and a half points of daylight. St Kilda don’t need to win – they just need to hang around.
Suns vs Saints Tip
Gold Coast win in Darwin but only by about 11 points – St Kilda +17.5 is the play because the books have overcorrected on the Suns’ home ground advantage.
Suns vs Saints Key Stats
INSIDE 50S
GCFC59
STK52
Gold Coast’s forward entries create their scoring edge, but St Kilda’s better conversion rate inside 50 keeps the margin tight.
HIT-OUTS
GCFC42
STK32
Gold Coast’s ruck dominance feeds their inside 50 count – the one area where the Suns can genuinely control tempo.
TACKLES
GCFC56
STK52
The Suns’ tackle pressure lifts in Darwin’s heat but the gap isn’t wide enough to suggest a blowout.
Suns vs Saints Form Guide
Gold Coast Suns
WLWLL
- W 83-63 vs GWS Giants
- L 63-112 vs Hawthorn
- W 119-110 vs Essendon
- L 68-100 vs Sydney Swans
- L 89-109 vs Melbourne
St Kilda Saints
WWLWL
- W 108-69 vs Carlton
- W 143-42 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 102-103 vs Adelaide Crows
- W 81-67 vs Port Adelaide
- L 80-113 vs Brisbane Lions
Final Verdict
The Saints are in better nick than the ladder suggests and the Suns aren’t as dominant as the market thinks. Take the points and let Darwin do its worst.
LOCK IT IN: St Kilda +17.5 @ $1.91
Key Facts
| Match | Gold Coast Suns vs St Kilda Saints |
| Date | Saturday, May 9 |
| Venue | TIO Stadium |
| Our Tip | St Kilda +17.5 @ $1.91 |
| Predicted Score | Gold Coast Suns 96 – St Kilda Saints 85 |
Gold Coast Suns vs St Kilda Saints FAQs
Who will win Gold Coast Suns vs St Kilda Saints?
Our model predicts the Gold Coast Suns to win by 11 points at TIO Stadium in Darwin. The Suns’ inside 50 advantage and ruck dominance give them the edge, but St Kilda’s recent form suggests this won’t be a blowout.
What are the best bets for Suns vs Saints Round 9?
St Kilda +17.5 at $1.91 is the best value. Our model has Gold Coast winning by 11, which is 6.5 points fewer than the market line. The Saints have won three of their last five and are in better form than the odds suggest.
What is the predicted score for Gold Coast vs St Kilda?
Our model predicts Gold Coast Suns 96 to St Kilda Saints 85. The total of 181 sits well under the market total of 192.5, suggesting a tighter, lower-scoring contest than the bookmakers expect.
Verified result – Round 9
We tipped Gold Coast Suns to win – correct. Final score: Gold Coast Suns 89 – St Kilda Saints 60.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | St Kilda Saints +17.5 @ $1.91 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Gold Coast Suns 96 – St Kilda Saints 85. Off by 18 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
