Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Fremantle vs Hawthorn Prediction – Round 9 2026
AFL Round 9 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
Hawthorn by 2 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn by 2
Current Market
Fremantle -3.5
1.5 pts tighter
Best BetLINE BETTING
Best Bet: Hawthorn Hawks +3.5 @ $1.90
Model has Hawthorn winning outright – getting 3.5 points with them is pure value.
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Odds correct at time of posting
Dockers vs Hawks Prediction: Hawthorn’s Momentum Edge Is Enormous | AFL R9
Fremantle beat Hawthorn by 13 last time they met. That result is baked into this line. But these are two completely different teams now, and the market hasn’t caught up.
Hawthorn’s momentum rating is the standout number in this entire round – 106.4 against Fremantle’s 76.5. Both sides are winning, but the Hawks are doing it against better opposition and doing it away from home. Their last five includes wins over Port Adelaide, the Bulldogs and Geelong, plus they’re unbeaten in that stretch. Fremantle’s best scalp in the same stretch is Carlton.
The Dockers are rightful favourites at Optus. Home ground, second on the ladder, won seven of eight. But the books have them at -3.5 and our model says Hawthorn actually wins this by 2. That’s a five-and-a-half point swing between market and model.
The risk is obvious – Fremantle at home in Perth is a fortress. If their contested game fires and the crowd gets into it early, the Hawks could wilt. It’s happened before.
But Hawthorn have been in tight games all year and keep finding a way. Getting 3.5 points with a team this battle-hardened is a gift.
Dockers vs Hawks Tip
Hawthorn by 2 points – the Hawks’ momentum is the highest in the comp and the market is giving them a start they don’t deserve.
Dockers vs Hawks Key Stats
MOMENTUM RATING
FRE77
HAW106
Hawthorn’s momentum dwarfs Fremantle’s – the Hawks are peaking at the right time and it’s the key driver in our model flipping the market.
AVG WIN MARGIN L5
FRE28
HAW22
Fremantle’s margins look bigger but are inflated by a 56-point belting of West Coast – strip that out and the gap disappears.
WIN% LAST 5
FRE100%
HAW100%
Both sides are unbeaten in five – this is a genuine top-of-the-table clash and the line should be tighter than 3.5.
Dockers vs Hawks Form Guide
Fremantle Dockers
WWWWW
- W 114-102 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 103-89 vs Carlton
- W 97-41 vs West Coast Eagles
- W 45-39 vs Collingwood
- W 78-76 vs Adelaide Crows
Hawthorn Hawks
LWWWW
- D 93-93 vs Collingwood
- W 112-63 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 89-86 vs Port Adelaide
- W 104-64 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 92-91 vs Geelong Cats
Final Verdict
Our model disagrees with the market favourite entirely. Take the Hawks and the start – this is as clean a value play as you’ll find in Round 9.
LOCK IT IN: Hawthorn +3.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks |
| Date | Thursday, May 7 |
| Venue | Optus Stadium |
| Our Tip | Hawthorn +3.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Fremantle Dockers 78 – Hawthorn Hawks 80 |
Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks FAQs
Who will win Fremantle Dockers vs Hawthorn Hawks?
Our model predicts Hawthorn Hawks to win by 2 points, 80-78. Despite Fremantle being the market favourite at home, Hawthorn’s superior momentum and form against quality opposition gives them the edge in a tight contest.
What are the best bets for Fremantle vs Hawthorn Round 9?
Hawthorn +3.5 at $1.90 is the best bet. Our model has the Hawks winning outright, so getting a 3.5-point start represents strong value. The under 184.5 at $1.88 is also worth a look with the model total sitting at just 158.
What is the predicted score for Fremantle vs Hawthorn?
Our model predicts Fremantle 78 to Hawthorn 80. It’s expected to be a low-scoring, tight affair – well under the market total of 184.5 – suited to Hawthorn’s ability to grind out close wins.
Verified result – Round 9
We tipped Hawthorn Hawks to win – incorrect. Final score: Fremantle Dockers 88 – Hawthorn Hawks 73.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Hawthorn Hawks +3.5 @ $1.90 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Fremantle Dockers 78 – Hawthorn Hawks 80. Off by 17 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
