Richmond vs Adelaide Prediction – Round 9 2026
AFL Round 9 • 2026 Model Predicted — Final Score…
Brisbane vs Carlton Same Game Multi – Round 9 2026
Same Game Multi • AFL Round 9 • 2026
Featured Same Game Multi
BL
$1.10 H2H
Friday, May 8
SGM
Gabba, 8:30pm AEST
CARL
$7.50 H2H
Edge Stack: ~$4.50 in Ladbrokes builder
Featured SGM4 LEGS
Brisbane 40+ • Over 184.5 • Neale 25+ • Florent 20+
Stacks the model’s two biggest market disagreements with the highest hit-rate disposal lock from each side.
Best Value LegPLAYER PROP
Oliver Florent 20+ disposals @ $1.44
Build This SGM at Ladbrokes - Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting. Confirm live builder price before placing.
Brisbane v Carlton Same Game Multi: stack the blowout, the over, and the disposal locks for AFL Round 9.
Carlton are cooked. Five losses on the trot, just dropped 39 at home to St Kilda, and now they fly into the Gabba where Brisbane have won their last four by 52, 54, 53 and 54 points. Our Brisbane v Carlton prediction - Brisbane vs carlton prediction 08 05 26 has the Lions winning by 43 in a 203-point shootout, the line is 42.5, the total is 184.5, and the form guide is screaming the same script as the model. When that happens you don’t hunt for a clever angle, you stack the legs and let the SGM builder pay you for what is already showing.
SGM #1: Lockdown (Lower Variance)
The grinder. You don’t need Brisbane to win by 50 here, you just need a high-scoring game and your two best disposal locks to fire. Neale has gone 27, 42, 31, 30, 29 in his last five for 25+ every time. Walsh is Carlton’s only mid you can trust through a flogging, four from five at 20+. Brisbane’s last five game totals: 222, 202, 206, 158, 184. The over has been there nearly every week.
SGM #1 Legs
| Total Game Points OVER 184.5 | $1.90 |
| Lachie Neale 25+ disposals | $1.14 |
| Sam Walsh 20+ disposals | $1.05 |
Legs multiply to $2.27 • Builder should price around $2.10 to $2.30 • Stake: 1.0 unit
SGM #2: Edge Stack (Main Play)
This is the play. Brisbane by 40+ is the model’s biggest gap on the market, the over is right behind it, and we glue both edges together with the best disposal lock from each side. Florent is the steal. The bookies have him at $1.44 like it’s a coin flip, but he’s gone 30, 20, 23, 25, 20 across his last five for five straight 20+ games. Even when Carlton get smashed, Florent still finds the ball. That’s the leg you want when every other leg assumes Carlton fall apart.
SGM #2 Legs • Featured Play
| Brisbane Lions to win by 40+ (Big Win Little Win) | $1.74 |
| Total Game Points OVER 184.5 | $1.90 |
| Lachie Neale 25+ disposals | $1.14 |
| Oliver Florent 20+ disposals | $1.44 |
Legs multiply to $5.43 • Builder should price around $4.40 to $5.00 • Stake: 2.0 units
SGM #3: Big Profit Stack
Six legs, one script. Brisbane blow Carlton off the park, the total clears 184.5, three mids hit their disposal numbers, and Bailey snags one in front of goal. Every leg lives or dies on the same outcome, which keeps the multi tight enough to land. Small stake, big payout if the night goes the way it’s lining up.
SGM #3 Legs
| Brisbane Lions to win by 40+ | $1.74 |
| Total Game Points OVER 184.5 | $1.90 |
| Lachie Neale 25+ disposals | $1.14 |
| Will Ashcroft 25+ disposals | $1.14 |
| Oliver Florent 20+ disposals | $1.44 |
| Zac Bailey anytime goal | $1.09 |
Legs multiply to $7.43 • Builder should price around $5.50 to $6.50 • Stake: 0.25 to 0.5 units
Stake Plan
| SGM | Stake | Why |
|---|---|---|
| #2 Edge Stack | 2.0 U | Best EV, captures both model edges |
| #1 Lockdown | 1.0 U | Higher hit rate, smooths variance |
| #3 Big Profit | 0.25-0.5 U | Asymmetric upside if the blowout lands |
| Total exposure | 3.25-3.5 U | One game’s worth of action |
1 unit equals whatever you’d normally risk on a single straight bet. No additional straights on top.
Final Verdict
Carlton in freefall, Brisbane at the Gabba, model and form guide both screaming Brisbane by 40+ in a high-scoring game. The Edge Stack at around $4.50 is the bet.
Key Facts
| Match | Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues |
| Date | Friday, May 8 2026 |
| Venue | Gabba, Brisbane |
| Featured SGM | Brisbane 40+, Over 184.5, Neale 25+ disp, Florent 20+ disp |
| Predicted Score | Brisbane Lions 123, Carlton Blues 80 |
Brisbane vs Carlton SGM FAQs
What is the best Same Game Multi for Brisbane v Carlton?
The four-leg Edge Stack is the bet. Brisbane to win by 40+, Total Game Points Over 184.5, Lachie Neale 25+ disposals, and Oliver Florent 20+ disposals. The legs multiply out at $5.43 and the Ladbrokes builder will price it around $4.40 to $5.00 after correlation discount.
What is a Same Game Multi?
A Same Game Multi (SGM) is one bet built from multiple selections in the same game. Pick a head-to-head, a player goal, a total points line, and the bookie prices the lot together as one ticket. The correlation engine usually trims 10 to 20 percent off the straight multiply-it-out price, so always confirm the live price in the builder.
Who will win Brisbane Lions v Carlton Blues?
Our model has Brisbane by 43 at the Gabba. The Lions are scoring 117 a game across their last five, Carlton are conceding 102 and have lost five on the trot. Brisbane have won eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings.
How many legs should a Same Game Multi have?
Three is the floor for a clean grinder. Four is the sweet spot when you have got two model edges and want a lock from each side. Six legs and beyond is kicker territory, the price gets fatter but the hit rate drops sharply with every extra leg you bolt on.
