Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Brisbane vs Carlton Prediction – Round 9 2026
AFL Round 9 • 2026
Model Predicted — Final Score
BL
$1.09
Friday, May 8
123 : 80
Gabba
CARL
$7.50
Brisbane Lions by 43 points
Model Predicted Margin
Brisbane Lions by 43
Current Market
Brisbane Lions -42.5
0.5 pts edge
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.09
Our model has Brisbane winning by 43 and Carlton haven’t won a game since Round 1.
Value BetLINE BETTING
Brisbane Lions -42.5 @ $1.89
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes - Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Lions vs Blues Prediction: Carlton’s Season Is Cooked | AFL Round 9
Brisbane beat Carlton by 28 in the elimination final and by 37 in the home-and-away fixture last year. The gap has only widened. Carlton have won just one game this season and the Lions are sitting fourth with genuine September credentials.
The marking differential is where this gets ugly. Brisbane are taking 123 marks a game to Carlton’s 88 – and inside 50, it’s 15 to 10. That’s not a stat gap, that’s a structural mismatch. The Lions intercept, move the ball by foot, and hit targets. Carlton hack it forward and hope.
Centre clearances tell the same story from a different angle. Brisbane are winning four more per game than Carlton, which means first use going forward, which means more entries, which means more of those marks inside 50. It compounds.
The only way Carlton stay in this is if they win the contested ball and slow the game to a crawl. They do tackle hard – 57 a game – and they win contested possessions. If Brisbane get sloppy with ball in hand, there’s a window. But the Gabba in May, dry track, 17 degrees – that’s Lions weather.
The line is 42.5 and our model has it at 43. Tight alignment, but the $1.89 on the line is better value than $1.09 on the head-to-head. Back the margin.
Want to stack this with player props? Our Brisbane v Carlton same game multi - Brisbane vs carlton same game multi 08 05 26 is built off the same model edges, with a four-leg Edge Stack at around $4.50.
Lions vs Blues Tip
Brisbane Lions by 43 points at the Gabba – Carlton have won just one game this season and this fortress will bury them.
Lions vs Blues Key Stats
MARKS
BL123
CARL88
Brisbane’s dominance in the air – 35 more marks per game – means they control the corridor and punish Carlton’s turnovers.
CENTRE CLEARANCES
BL16
CARL12
Brisbane win first use from the middle four more times a game, feeding their forward line before Carlton can set up defensively.
MARKS INSIDE 50
BL15
CARL10
Brisbane take nearly six more marks inside 50 per game – that’s six extra shots on goal from set positions.
Lions vs Blues Form Guide
Brisbane Lions
WWLWW
- W 143-79 vs Essendon
- W 127-75 vs Adelaide Crows
- L 102-104 vs Melbourne
- W 92-66 vs North Melbourne
- W 119-65 vs Collingwood
Carlton Blues
LLLLL
- L 69-108 vs St Kilda
- L 89-103 vs Fremantle
- L 83-88 vs Collingwood
- L 86-114 vs Adelaide Crows
- L 86-96 vs North Melbourne
Final Verdict
Carlton are in freefall and Brisbane at the Gabba is the worst possible draw to stop the bleeding. The line pays nearly double what the H2H does – take it.
LOCK IT IN: Brisbane Lions -42.5 @ $1.89
Key Facts
| Match | Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues |
| Date | Friday, May 8 |
| Venue | Gabba |
| Our Tip | Brisbane Lions -42.5 @ $1.89 |
| Predicted Score | Brisbane Lions 123 – Carlton Blues 80 |
Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues FAQs
Who will win Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues?
Our model predicts Brisbane Lions to win by 43 points at the Gabba. Brisbane are 5-3 and sitting fourth on the ladder, while Carlton have lost eight straight games and sit 16th. The Lions have won two of the last three meetings including a 28-point elimination final victory.
What are the best bets for Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues?
Our recommended bet is Brisbane Lions -42.5 at $1.89. The model margin of 43 aligns closely with the market line, but the line odds offer far better value than the $1.09 head-to-head price. The over 186.5 total at $1.89 also looks sharp with our model projecting a combined score of 203.
What is the predicted score for Brisbane Lions vs Carlton Blues?
Our model predicts Brisbane Lions 123 to Carlton Blues 80, a total of 203 points. Brisbane are averaging nearly 16 goals a game this season and Carlton’s defence has been leaking points throughout their eight-game losing streak.
Verified result – Round 9
We tipped Brisbane Lions to win – correct. Final score: Brisbane Lions 100 – Carlton Blues 89.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.09 | Win | +0.09u |
Predicted: Brisbane Lions 123 – Carlton Blues 80. Off by 32 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
