Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Essendon vs Brisbane Prediction – Round 8 2026
AFL Round 8 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
Brisbane Lions by 27 points
Model Predicted Margin
Brisbane Lions by 27
Current Market
Essendon +41.5
14.5 pts tighter
Best BetLINE BETTING
Best Bet: Essendon Bombers +41.5 @ $1.89
Our model has Brisbane by 27 – that’s 14.5 points of cushion on the Bombers line.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes - Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Bombers vs Lions Prediction: 14 Points the Books Won’t Give You
Brisbane have beaten Essendon three straight times, including that Round 12 win where McCluggage racked up 41 disposals and made the Bombers look like spectators. The Lions own this matchup.
But 41.5 points is absurd. Essendon are 1-6 and genuinely terrible, but they’re not a side that gets blown off the park every week. They lost to North by 12 and the Dogs by 34. Brisbane’s last three wins over them came by 18, 20, and 42 – only one of those covers this line.
The clearance gap is the concern. Brisbane are monstering teams through the middle and Essendon simply can’t match that engine. If the Lions get on top at stoppages, the margin can balloon.
The thing saving Essendon is Marvel. This isn’t the Gabba. The roof closes, the conditions neutralise, and Essendon’s handball-heavy game style keeps them in contests even when they’re outclassed. They’re scrappy enough to hang around.
Our model says 27. The market says 42. That’s a big gap to ignore.
Bombers vs Lions Tip
Brisbane wins but Essendon covers the 41.5-point line – our model has the Lions winning by 27, leaving nearly 15 points of value on the Bombers.
Bombers vs Lions Key Stats
CLEARANCES
ESS29
BL42
Brisbane’s 13-clearance advantage per game is the engine that drives their scoring – it’s the biggest threat to Essendon covering.
INSIDE 50S
ESS45
BL57
Brisbane generate 12 more entries per game, but Essendon’s higher disposal efficiency helps them slow the bleeding on turnover chains.
MARKS INSIDE 50
ESS10
BL14
Brisbane’s contested marking strength converts forward entries into goals – but under the Marvel roof, Essendon’s defenders can limit aerial damage.
Bombers vs Lions Form Guide
Essendon Bombers
LLWLL
- L 60-137 vs Collingwood
- L 110-119 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 113-68 vs Melbourne
- L 65-99 vs Western Bulldogs
- L 69-81 vs North Melbourne
Brisbane Lions
WLWWW
- W 127-75 vs Adelaide Crows
- L 102-104 vs Melbourne
- W 92-66 vs North Melbourne
- W 119-65 vs Collingwood
- W 113-80 vs St Kilda
Final Verdict
Brisbane win comfortably but the books have priced in a demolition that the head-to-head history doesn’t support. Take the points.
LOCK IT IN: Essendon +41.5 @ $1.89
Key Facts
| Match | Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions |
| Date | Saturday, May 2 |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Our Tip | Essendon +41.5 @ $1.89 |
| Predicted Score | Essendon Bombers 75 – Brisbane Lions 102 |
Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions FAQs
Who will win Essendon vs Brisbane Lions?
Brisbane Lions are expected to win. Our model predicts a 102-75 victory for the Lions at Marvel Stadium, a margin of 27 points. Brisbane have won their last three meetings against Essendon.
What are the best bets for Essendon vs Brisbane Lions Round 8?
The best value is Essendon +41.5 at $1.89. Our model has Brisbane winning by 27, which is 14.5 points fewer than the market line. Brisbane have only covered a 41.5-point spread once in their last three meetings with Essendon.
What is the predicted score for Essendon vs Brisbane Lions?
Our model predicts Brisbane Lions 102 to Essendon Bombers 75, a 27-point Brisbane victory. The line is set at 41.5 points, suggesting the market expects a bigger blowout than our numbers support.
Verified result – Round 8
We tipped Brisbane Lions to win – correct. Final score: Essendon Bombers 79 – Brisbane Lions 143.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Essendon Bombers +41.5 @ $1.89 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Essendon Bombers 75 – Brisbane Lions 102. Off by 37 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
