Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Carlton vs St Kilda Prediction – Round 8 2026
AFL Round 8 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
St Kilda by 3 points
Model Predicted Margin
St Kilda by 3
Current Market
Carlton +14.5
11.5 pts tighter
Best BetLINE BETTING
Best Bet: Carlton Blues +14.5 @ $1.90
Our model has this as a 3-point game – that’s 11.5 points of value on the Blues line.
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Odds correct at time of posting
Blues vs Saints Prediction: Carlton to Cover the Line
Five straight losses will do that to a team’s price. Carlton have dropped from top-eight contenders to $2.73 outsiders at their home deck, and the market’s priced them like they’ve forgotten how to play footy.
They haven’t. Carlton’s contested possession game is elite – they’re winning the hard ball at a rate that’s among the best in the comp. That’s not a trait that disappears overnight. St Kilda are cleaner by foot and more dangerous inside 50, but they’ve been inconsistent themselves – losing to Adelaide by a point and getting belted by Brisbane.
Harry McKay kicked three last time these two met and Carlton won by 15. Carlton have taken two of the last three, but every game has been tight. This fixture doesn’t produce blowouts.
The risk is St Kilda’s marking. They’re taking nearly 20 more marks per game than Carlton, and their inside 50 marking is a genuine weapon. If they get on top aerially, they can stretch the margin.
But 14.5 points at Marvel for a side that’s been competitive in most recent outings? That’s the market punishing form and ignoring fundamentals. Our model says 3 points. The books say 14.5. Back Carlton to keep it close.
Blues vs Saints Tip
St Kilda win a tight one, but Carlton cover +14.5 comfortably – our model has this as a 3-point game and the books have overreacted to Carlton’s losing streak.
Blues vs Saints Key Stats
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS
CARL138
STK130
Carlton win the hard ball by 8 per game – that’s the engine room edge keeping them competitive despite their record.
MARKS INSIDE 50
CARL9
STK12
St Kilda’s aerial dominance forward of centre is the biggest threat to Carlton covering the line.
KICKS
CARL209
STK233
St Kilda move the ball by foot far more effectively – but in a low-scoring grind that advantage shrinks.
Blues vs Saints Form Guide
Carlton Blues
LLLLL
- L 89-103 vs Fremantle
- L 83-88 vs Collingwood
- L 86-114 vs Adelaide Crows
- L 86-96 vs North Melbourne
- L 77-100 vs Melbourne
St Kilda Saints
WLWLW
- W 143-42 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 102-103 vs Adelaide Crows
- W 81-67 vs Port Adelaide
- L 80-113 vs Brisbane Lions
- W 78-74 vs GWS Giants
Final Verdict
Carlton are bad but they’re not 14.5 points bad. The line’s a gift at Marvel – take the points and move on.
LOCK IT IN: Carlton +14.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints |
| Date | Saturday, May 2 |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Our Tip | Carlton +14.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Carlton Blues 81 – St Kilda Saints 83 |
Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints FAQs
Who will win Carlton vs St Kilda?
Our model predicts St Kilda to win by 3 points (83-81). However, the market line of 14.5 points significantly overstates the gap, making Carlton +14.5 the value play.
What are the best bets for Carlton vs St Kilda Round 8?
Carlton +14.5 at $1.90 is our best bet. The model margin of 3 points gives 11.5 points of value on the line. Under 180.5 at $1.87 is also worth a look with our model projecting a total of just 164.
What is the predicted score for Carlton vs St Kilda?
Our model predicts Carlton 81 to St Kilda 83, a combined total of 164. That sits well under the market total of 180.5, suggesting a tight, low-scoring contest at Marvel Stadium.
Verified result – Round 8
We tipped St Kilda Saints to win – correct. Final score: Carlton Blues 69 – St Kilda Saints 108.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Carlton Blues +14.5 @ $1.90 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Carlton Blues 81 – St Kilda Saints 83. Off by 37 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
