Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Adelaide VS Port Adelaide Prediction – Round 8 2026
AFL Round 8 • 2026
Model Predicted – Final Score
Adelaide Crows by 20 points
Model Predicted Margin
Adelaide Crows by 20
Current Market
Adelaide Crows -12.5
7.5 pts edge
Best BetLINE BETTING
Best Bet: Adelaide Crows -12.5 @ $1.89
Our model has the Crows winning by 20 – that’s 7.5 points of value on the line in a Showdown they’ll dominate through contested ball.
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Odds correct at time of posting
Crows vs Power Prediction: Showdown Revenge Is Coming
A 98-point belting last time they met. That’s not a scoreline you forget, and it’s not one Port Adelaide have answered yet.
Adelaide’s contested possession advantage is enormous – nearly 17 per game more than Port this season. In a Showdown at Adelaide Oval, that’s the stat that matters most. Port’s pretty ball movement and uncontested game gets suffocated when the Crows bring the pressure, and Adelaide’s tackle count backs that up.
The books have this at 12.5. Our model says 20. That’s a full seven and a half points the market is giving away. Port’s form doesn’t justify a closer margin – only two of their four losses came by single-digit margins against sides who aren’t as physical as Adelaide.
The only way this flips is if Port’s marking dominance translates into scoreboard pressure. They’re taking significantly more marks inside 50 and if they can actually convert those entries cleanly, they can stay in touch.
But the Crows are riding genuine momentum into this one, and derby day at Adelaide Oval with a hostile crowd isn’t where Port turn their season around. The line’s too short.
Crows vs Power Tip
Adelaide by 20 – their contested ball dominance at Adelaide Oval turns this derby into a mismatch the books haven’t fully priced.
Crows vs Power Key Stats
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS
ADEL136
PORT119
Adelaide’s 17-possession edge in the contest fuels their pressure game – exactly what wins Showdowns.
TACKLES
ADEL62
PORT56
The Crows tackle harder and more often – Port’s ball carriers will be under siege all night.
MARKS INSIDE 50
ADEL12
PORT15
Port’s main path to staying in this game – if they can’t convert these into goals, the margin blows out.
Crows vs Power Form Guide
Adelaide Crows
LWWLL
- L 75-127 vs Brisbane Lions
- W 103-102 vs St Kilda
- W 114-86 vs Carlton
- L 76-78 vs Fremantle
- L 60-68 vs Geelong Cats
Port Adelaide Power
WLLWL
- W 95-65 vs Geelong Cats
- L 86-89 vs Hawthorn
- L 67-81 vs St Kilda
- W 90-48 vs Richmond
- L 90-92 vs West Coast Eagles
Final Verdict
Seven and a half points between our model and the market. Adelaide’s physicality will be the difference – back the Crows to cover.
LOCK IT IN: Adelaide Crows -12.5 @ $1.89
Key Facts
| Match | Adelaide Crows vs Port Adelaide Power |
| Date | Friday, May 1 |
| Venue | Adelaide Oval |
| Our Tip | Adelaide Crows -12.5 @ $1.89 |
| Predicted Score | Adelaide Crows 98 – Port Adelaide Power 78 |
Adelaide Crows vs Port Adelaide Power FAQs
Who will win Adelaide Crows vs Port Adelaide?
Our model predicts Adelaide Crows to win by 20 points at Adelaide Oval. The Crows’ contested possession dominance and tackling pressure give them a clear edge in Showdown conditions, building on their 98-point demolition in the last meeting.
What are the best bets for the Showdown in Round 8?
Adelaide Crows -12.5 at $1.89 is the value play. Our model has the margin at 20 points, giving 7.5 points of value on the line. Adelaide’s physicality and home ground advantage make the cover likely.
What is the predicted score for Crows vs Power Round 8?
Our model predicts Adelaide Crows 98 to Port Adelaide Power 78. Adelaide’s contested ball superiority and momentum rating of 92.6 drive the 20-point margin, with the Crows expected to control the game through pressure.
Verified result – Round 8
We tipped Adelaide Crows to win – correct. Final score: Adelaide Crows 76 – Port Adelaide Power 75.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Adelaide Crows -12.5 @ $1.89 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Adelaide Crows 98 – Port Adelaide Power 78. Off by 19 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
