St Kilda vs GWS Prediction
St Kilda host GWS at Marvel on Sunday afternoon and…
Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Prediction
Western Bulldogs host Adelaide at Marvel on Thursday night and the model has the Dogs winning by 3. The market wants 3.5. The line and the head to head sit on top of each other, so the price is the question.
AFL Round 14 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
WBD
$1.78
Thursday, June 11 • 7:30pm
86 : 83
Marvel Stadium
ADE
$2.08
Western Bulldogs by 3 points
Model Predicted Margin
Western Bulldogs by 3
Current Market
Western Bulldogs -3.5
0.5 pts tighter
Recommended BetHEAD TO HEAD
Western Bulldogs H2H @ $1.78
No model edge at this price
Model has the Dogs winning by 3 at Marvel, the market has it at 3.5, and the Dogs have the only Adelaide Oval win between these two sides in the last three meetings.
Claim This Tip at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
How to read our tips
Best Bet means the model finds real value at the current market price. This is where we put the units. Recommended Bet means the model has no edge at the price. If we had to play one, this is the call, but we only track profit and ROI on our Best Bets.
A Three Point Margin, a Roof Over the Top, and Two Sides That Have Both Won Four From Five.
Both sides come in at four from five, six places apart on the ladder, and matched odds either side of even money. The Dogs sit sixth on 8 and 5, the Crows eighth on 7 and 5, and the gap on the form table is invisible.
The Crows own the ruck contest clean. Their hit out average sits at 41 a game against the Dogs at 29.8, and that is the kind of edge that drags possession back to the visiting midfield. If Adelaide win the ruck, they get first hands at the stoppage all night.
Where the Dogs claw it back is at the centre bounce. Western Bulldogs are winning 37.7 clearances a game to Adelaide’s 36, and the handball game (153.8 v 141.1) is the territory pressure that turns Marvel into a chaos floor.
Head to head, the Crows have won two of the last three meetings, both at Adelaide Oval. The one fixture in that run on the Crows’ home deck where the Dogs got up, Round 2, the score was 94 to 88. That is the closest comparable we have to a neutral venue, and it tilts the home side’s way.
The model says Dogs by 3. The market says Dogs by 3.5. There is no value to chase at $1.78, but there is no reason to fight the favourite either.
Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Tip
Back the Western Bulldogs in the head to head at $1.78; the model has the Dogs winning by 3 at Marvel, the market line is 3.5, and the two numbers are sitting in the same window.
Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Key Stats
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
WBD80%
ADE80%
Both sides walk into Round 14 at four from five. The Dogs dropped one to Carlton, the Crows dropped one to Hawthorn. The form line is genuinely level.
HIT-OUTS
WBD30
ADE41
Adelaide own the ruck. An 11 hit out edge in this matchup is the structural reason the Crows hold the H2H two from three over the last three meetings.
CLEARANCES
WBD38
ADE36
The Dogs win the clearance count back the other way. The fight at the stoppage is closer than the hit out gap suggests.
Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Form Guide
Western Bulldogs
WWWLW
- W 77-71 vs Hawthorn
- W 97-93 vs Collingwood
- W 93-90 vs Melbourne
- L 62-74 vs Carlton
- W 74-72 vs Port Adelaide
Adelaide Crows
WLWWW
- W 75-74 vs Geelong Cats
- L 66-75 vs Hawthorn
- W 133-65 vs North Melbourne
- W 98-61 vs Richmond
- W 76-75 vs Port Adelaide
Final Verdict
No real value to be had at $1.78, the model and the market are in lock step. Gun to our head, take the Western Bulldogs in the head to head and hope the Marvel deck does what it usually does.
OUR PICK: Western Bulldogs H2H @ $1.78
No real value to be had here. If we had to play one, this is it.
Key Facts
| Match | Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows |
| Date | Thursday, June 11 |
| Kick-off | 7:30pm AEST |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 14 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Western Bulldogs H2H @ $1.78 |
| Predicted Score | Western Bulldogs 86 – Adelaide Crows 83 |
Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows FAQs
Who will win Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows?
Our model tips the Western Bulldogs to win by 3 points at Marvel Stadium. The Dogs sit sixth on the ladder at 8 and 5, the Crows eighth at 7 and 5, and both sides come in at four from five recent.
What is the tip for Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows in Round 14?
Western Bulldogs in the head to head at $1.78 is our recommended pick. The model has the margin at 3 points, the market line at 3.5, and there is no value at the price but no reason to fight the favourite.
Where is the Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows Round 14 match being played?
The match is at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, kicking off at 7:30pm on Thursday 11 June 2026.
Verified result – Round 14
We tipped Western Bulldogs to win – incorrect. Final score: Western Bulldogs 64 – Adelaide Crows 121.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Western Bulldogs H2H @ $1.78 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Western Bulldogs 86 – Adelaide Crows 83. Off by 60 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
