Richmond vs Brisbane Prediction
Richmond host Brisbane at Ninja Stadium in Hobart on Sunday…
St Kilda vs GWS Prediction
St Kilda host GWS at Marvel on Sunday afternoon and the model has the Giants winning by 3. The market has the Saints winning by 3.5. This is the one Round 14 fixture where the model and the market disagree on the winner.
AFL Round 14 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
STK
$1.78
Sunday, June 14 • 3:15pm
82 : 86
Marvel Stadium
GRE
$2.08
Greater Western Sydney Giants by 3 points
Model Predicted Margin
Greater Western Sydney Giants by 3
Current Market
St Kilda Saints -3.5
0.5 pts tighter
Recommended BetHEAD TO HEAD
Greater Western Sydney Giants H2H @ $2.08
No model edge at this price
Model has the Giants by 3 at Marvel against the market’s St Kilda by 3.5, the Giants come off a 14 day break, and the H2H sits 2 to 1 in the Giants’ favour with a 110 to 82 win in the most recent meeting.
Claim This Tip at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
How to read our tips
Best Bet means the model finds real value at the current market price. This is where we put the units. Recommended Bet means the model has no edge at the price. If we had to play one, this is the call, but we only track profit and ROI on our Best Bets.
Model and Market Pull in Opposite Directions, the Giants Come In Fresh, and Marvel Hosts the Closest Read of the Round.
The model and the market do not agree on this one. The line has the Saints by 3.5 at home. The model has the Giants by 3 on the road. That gap is six and a half points and it sits on top of a real form story.
St Kilda are 12th at 5 and 8 and have lost four of the last five, with the only win a 109 to 73 result over Richmond that is hard to bank against anyone tougher. The Saints’ four losses in that bracket have been by 2, 52, 30 and 29 points, and the 52 point shipping to Hawthorn is the kind of result that hangs around a team for a month.
Greater Western Sydney sit 10th at 6 and 6 with momentum at 99.9 and three from five. The three wins are a 119 to 70 mauling of Melbourne, a 166 to 88 demolition of Brisbane, and a 14 point win over Essendon. The Giants on song are scoring 140 a game. That is the highest scoring spike in any travelling side this round.
The Giants also come off the bye. Fourteen days rest is a real lever and it shows up in the model’s away momentum number. The Saints have a seven day turnaround from a loss to Sydney by 2 points, which is the leanest tank position on the round.
Historical H2H is 2 to 1 the Giants’ way in the last three meetings, including a recent 110 to 82 win in this exact reverse fixture.
St Kilda vs Greater Western Sydney Giants Tip
Back the Greater Western Sydney Giants in the head to head at $2.08; the model has the Giants winning by 3 at Marvel against a St Kilda side that has lost four of the last five.
St Kilda vs Greater Western Sydney Giants Key Stats
DAYS REST
STK7
GRE14
GWS come off the bye with 14 days rest. St Kilda are on a seven day turnaround off a loss. A two week rest gap is the largest in any Round 14 fixture.
MOMENTUM
STK82
GRE100
GWS sit 18 momentum points clear. The Giants are scoring 140 a game when their best forward line connects, the Saints are stuck in the 80s.
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
STK20%
GRE60%
St Kilda have one win in their last five. GWS are three from five with a 166 to 88 demolition of Brisbane inside that window.
St Kilda vs Greater Western Sydney Giants Form Guide
St Kilda Saints
LLLWL
- L 102-104 vs Sydney Swans
- L 67-119 vs Hawthorn
- L 74-104 vs Fremantle
- W 109-73 vs Richmond
- L 60-89 vs Gold Coast Suns
Greater Western Sydney Giants
WWLWL
- W 119-70 vs Melbourne
- W 166-88 vs Brisbane Lions
- L 71-88 vs West Coast Eagles
- W 103-89 vs Essendon
- L 63-83 vs Gold Coast Suns
Final Verdict
No real value at $2.08 once you factor in the insufficient historical sample on model versus market disagreement. Gun to our head, take the Giants in the head to head and trust the rest advantage.
OUR PICK: Greater Western Sydney Giants H2H @ $2.08
No real value to be had here. If we had to play one, this is it.
Key Facts
| Match | St Kilda Saints vs Greater Western Sydney Giants |
| Date | Sunday, June 14 |
| Kick-off | 3:15pm AEST |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 14 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Greater Western Sydney Giants H2H @ $2.08 |
| Predicted Score | St Kilda Saints 82 – Greater Western Sydney Giants 86 |
St Kilda Saints vs Greater Western Sydney Giants FAQs
Who will win St Kilda Saints vs Greater Western Sydney Giants?
Our model tips the Greater Western Sydney Giants to win by 3 points at Marvel Stadium. GWS sit 10th on the ladder at 6 and 6 and come off the bye with 14 days rest. St Kilda sit 12th at 5 and 8 and have lost four of the last five.
What is the tip for St Kilda vs GWS in Round 14?
Greater Western Sydney Giants in the head to head at $2.08 is our recommended pick. The model has the Giants by 3, the market has St Kilda by 3.5, and this is the one Round 14 fixture where model and market disagree on the winner.
Where is the St Kilda vs GWS Round 14 match being played?
The match is at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, kicking off at 3:15pm on Sunday 14 June 2026.
Verified result – Round 14
We tipped Greater Western Sydney Giants to win – incorrect. Final score: St Kilda Saints 96 – Greater Western Sydney Giants 88.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Greater Western Sydney Giants H2H @ $2.08 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: St Kilda Saints 82 – Greater Western Sydney Giants 86. Off by 12 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
