St Kilda vs GWS Prediction
St Kilda host GWS at Marvel on Sunday afternoon and…
Richmond vs Brisbane Prediction
Richmond host Brisbane at Ninja Stadium in Hobart on Sunday and the model has the Lions winning by 38. The market wants 44.5. The favourite is at $1.08 and the only conversation is whether you want that price at all.
AFL Round 14 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
RIC
$8.00
Sunday, June 14 • 1:10pm
64 : 102
Ninja Stadium
BRL
$1.08
Brisbane Lions by 38 points
Model Predicted Margin
Brisbane Lions by 38
Current Market
Richmond Tigers +44.5
6.5 pts tighter
Recommended BetHEAD TO HEAD
Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.08
No model edge at this price
Model has the Lions by 38 at Ninja Stadium, Brisbane have won the last three meetings by an average of 76 points, and the clearance edge to Brisbane is 40.9 to 31.8 a game.
Claim This Tip at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
How to read our tips
Best Bet means the model finds real value at the current market price. This is where we put the units. Recommended Bet means the model has no edge at the price. If we had to play one, this is the call, but we only track profit and ROI on our Best Bets.
The Lions Are Eight Goals the Better Side, Richmond Sit Second Bottom, and Ninja Stadium Hosts a Mauling.
Richmond sit 17th at 2 and 10. The recent body of work is a 56 to 170 shipping to Sydney, two losses inside that have been 36 and 37 point margins, and the Tigers have not beaten a top half side in over a month. The list is in rebuild and the structure shows.
Brisbane sit ninth at 7 and 6 with momentum at 93.7 and two wins from five. The two wins came by 31 and 11. The losses came against GWS, Fremantle and Geelong, a top eight slate that says everything about where Brisbane sit on the contender map and almost nothing about this fixture.
The head to head record is brutal. Brisbane have hammered Richmond by 119 points in one of the last three meetings and won by 28 in another. The Lions hold a clear edge across every line of the H2H stats sheet, including a 40.9 to 31.8 clearance edge.
The market wants 44.5 points. The model has it at 38. That is six and a half points inside the line and the reason the spread gets skipped. The bet sweet spot sits at 30 points or below, this spread is too rich.
Forecast is cloudy and 13 degrees in Hobart. Ninja Stadium plays as a neutral venue for both sides and there is no weather lever in play.
Richmond vs Brisbane Tip
Back the Brisbane Lions in the head to head at $1.08; the model has the Lions winning by 38 against a Richmond side that has lost the head to head 90 to 118, 163 to 44 and 134 to 53 in their last three meetings.
Richmond vs Brisbane Key Stats
LADDER POSITION
RIC50
BRL50
Richmond sit second from the bottom at 2 and 10. Brisbane sit ninth at 7 and 6 and a finals slot is still live. The gap on the table is eight places.
CLEARANCES
RIC32
BRL41
Brisbane win the clearance count by nine a game. That is the largest gap in any Round 14 fixture and the structural reason the H2H record reads the way it does.
MARKS
RIC85
BRL109
Brisbane mark the ball 24 more times a game. They control the aerial contest, the territory contest, and they finish in front of goal.
Richmond vs Brisbane Form Guide
Richmond Tigers
LWLLW
- L 56-170 vs Sydney Swans
- W 74-56 vs Essendon
- L 73-109 vs St Kilda
- L 61-98 vs Adelaide Crows
- W 99-88 vs West Coast Eagles
Brisbane Lions
WLLLW
- W 106-75 vs Gold Coast Suns
- L 78-103 vs Fremantle
- L 88-166 vs GWS Giants
- L 76-117 vs Geelong Cats
- W 100-89 vs Carlton
Final Verdict
No real value at $1.08 and the spread is outside the sweet spot. Gun to our head, take Brisbane in the head to head and respect that this game is over before it starts.
OUR PICK: Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.08
No real value to be had here. If we had to play one, this is it.
Key Facts
| Match | Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions |
| Date | Sunday, June 14 |
| Kick-off | 1:10pm AEST |
| Venue | Blundstone Arena |
| Round | AFL Round 14 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.08 |
| Predicted Score | Richmond Tigers 64 – Brisbane Lions 102 |
Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions FAQs
Who will win Richmond Tigers vs Brisbane Lions?
Our model tips the Brisbane Lions to win by 38 points at Ninja Stadium in Hobart. Brisbane sit ninth on the ladder at 7 and 6. Richmond sit 17th at 2 and 10 and have lost the last three head to heads by an average of 76 points.
What is the tip for Richmond vs Brisbane in Round 14?
Brisbane Lions in the head to head at $1.08 is our recommended pick. The model has the margin at 38 points, the market line at 44.5, and the 44 point spread is outside our sweet spot band.
Where is the Richmond vs Brisbane Round 14 match being played?
The match is at Ninja Stadium in Hobart, kicking off at 1:10pm on Sunday 14 June 2026.
Verified result – Round 14
We tipped Brisbane Lions to win – correct. Final score: Richmond Tigers 80 – Brisbane Lions 115.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.08 | Win | +0.08u |
Predicted: Richmond Tigers 64 – Brisbane Lions 102. Off by 3 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
