St Kilda vs GWS Prediction
St Kilda host GWS at Marvel on Sunday afternoon and…
Port Adelaide vs Sydney Prediction
Port Adelaide host Sydney at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night and the model has the Swans winning by 27. The market wants 17.5. That gap is the most interesting number on the round and it points at the line, not the head to head.
AFL Round 14 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
PTA
$3.09
Saturday, June 13 • 7:35pm
72 : 99
Adelaide Oval
SYD
$1.37
Sydney Swans by 27 points
Model Predicted Margin
Sydney Swans by 27
Current Market
Port Adelaide Power +17.5
9.5 pts edge
Recommended BetHEAD TO HEAD
Sydney Swans H2H @ $1.37
No model edge at this price
Model has the Swans by 27 in Adelaide, and the inside 50 edge to Sydney is 63.1 to 49.6 a game.
Claim This Tip at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
How to read our tips
Best Bet means the model finds real value at the current market price. This is where we put the units. Recommended Bet means the model has no edge at the price. If we had to play one, this is the call, but we only track profit and ROI on our Best Bets.
Sydney Have Rolled Four From Five and the Model Wants More Than the Market Will Give.
Sydney sit second on the ladder at 11 and 2 with momentum at 105.9, the highest away momentum number in the round. Four from five recent. The one loss was a road trip to GMHBA against Geelong by 27 points, a result that says exactly what kind of side beats them and how much it costs.
Port sit 15th at 4 and 8 and won their most recent start, a 6 point grind over West Coast. Before that win they dropped four straight by 34, 25, 2 and 1 point. Two of those losses are inside one possession, which is the deceptive bit. The points for line is collapsing while the points against line holds, which historically points at a fade.
The inside 50 differential is enormous. Sydney are pumping 63.1 inside 50s a game to Port’s 49.6. Combine that with the Sydney handball game, 184.5 against 131.2, and you have a side that runs the ball end to end while the home team stands flat.
The market line is 17.5. The model is 9.5 points above that. The reason we are not on the line is the model’s own historical track record on Sydney as a heavy favourite, where laying 18 points has run at minus 27 percent ROI across the validation window. The head to head sidesteps that pattern at the cost of giving up the value.
Forecast is patchy rain and 12 degrees. Sydney are the better wet weather side in this matchup by a clear margin.
Port Adelaide vs Sydney Tip
Back the Sydney Swans in the head to head at $1.37; the model has the Swans winning by 27 against a Port Adelaide side that bleeds at home.
Port Adelaide vs Sydney Key Stats
LADDER POSITION
PTA50
SYD50
Sydney sit second at 11 and 2. Port sit 15th at 4 and 8. The gap is 13 places, the largest in any Round 14 fixture.
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
PTA20%
SYD80%
Port have one win in their last five, by a single point. Sydney are four from five with a 170 to 56 result over Richmond in there.
INSIDE 50S
PTA50
SYD63
Sydney pump 13 more inside 50s a game than Port. The Swans live in the front half and the territory map is a one way street.
Port Adelaide vs Sydney Form Guide
Port Adelaide Power
WLLLL
- W 77-71 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 58-92 vs Carlton
- L 73-98 vs Gold Coast Suns
- L 72-74 vs Western Bulldogs
- L 75-76 vs Adelaide Crows
Sydney Swans
WWLWW
- W 104-102 vs St Kilda
- W 170-56 vs Richmond
- L 80-107 vs Geelong Cats
- W 81-75 vs Collingwood
- W 105-97 vs North Melbourne
Final Verdict
No real value at $1.37 once the line value gets vetoed by the model’s own ROI track record. Gun to our head, take Sydney in the head to head and step around the spread.
OUR PICK: Sydney Swans H2H @ $1.37
No real value to be had here. If we had to play one, this is it.
Key Facts
| Match | Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans |
| Date | Saturday, June 13 |
| Kick-off | 7:35pm ACST |
| Venue | Adelaide Oval |
| Round | AFL Round 14 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Sydney Swans H2H @ $1.37 |
| Predicted Score | Port Adelaide Power 72 – Sydney Swans 99 |
Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans FAQs
Who will win Port Adelaide Power vs Sydney Swans?
Our model tips the Sydney Swans to win by 27 points at Adelaide Oval. Sydney sit second on the ladder at 11 and 2. Port sit 15th at 4 and 8.
What is the tip for Port Adelaide vs Sydney in Round 14?
Sydney Swans in the head to head at $1.37 is our recommended pick. The model has the margin at 27 points, the market line at 17.5, and the line value gets vetoed by the model’s own ROI track record on Sydney as a heavy favourite.
Where is the Port Adelaide vs Sydney Round 14 match being played?
The match is at Adelaide Oval in Adelaide, kicking off at 7:35pm on Saturday 13 June 2026.
Verified result – Round 14
We tipped Sydney Swans to win – correct. Final score: Port Adelaide Power 90 – Sydney Swans 93.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Sydney Swans H2H @ $1.37 | Win | +0.37u |
Predicted: Port Adelaide Power 72 – Sydney Swans 99. Off by 24 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
