St Kilda vs GWS Prediction
St Kilda host GWS at Marvel on Sunday afternoon and…
Melbourne vs Essendon Prediction
Melbourne host Essendon on the MCG on Saturday afternoon and the model has the Dees winning by 25. The market wants 30.5. The favourite is at $1.18 and the question is what the path looks like, not who wins.
AFL Round 14 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
MEL
$1.18
Saturday, June 13 • 1:15pm
111 : 87
MCG
ESS
$4.95
Melbourne Demons by 25 points
Model Predicted Margin
Melbourne Demons by 25
Current Market
Melbourne Demons -30.5
5.5 pts tighter
Recommended BetHEAD TO HEAD
Melbourne Demons H2H @ $1.18
No model edge at this price
Model has the Dees by 25 at the MCG, Essendon are 1 and 12 and on a five game losing streak, and the centre clearance edge to Melbourne is 15.3 to 12.7.
Claim This Tip at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
How to read our tips
Best Bet means the model finds real value at the current market price. This is where we put the units. Recommended Bet means the model has no edge at the price. If we had to play one, this is the call, but we only track profit and ROI on our Best Bets.
The Dees Just Posted 99 on West Coast, Essendon Have Lost the Last Five, and the Spread Reads Thirty.
Essendon are 1 and 12 and they have not won a game in five rounds. The losses have not been close either, the Bombers shipped 104 to Fremantle, 103 to GWS, and 85 to West Coast in that run. The bottom line is a side missing structure, missing personnel, and missing scoreboard pressure.
Melbourne sit fifth at 8 and 5 with momentum at 101 and three wins from five. The most recent of those was the 99 to 67 hammering of West Coast on the road, which is the same Eagles side that beat Essendon by 30. Transitive maths is dangerous in any sport but the gap between these two is not subtle.
The MCG edge for Melbourne is the structural point. The Dees average 57.3 inside 50s per game against Essendon’s 46.8, and the centre clearance edge is 15.3 to 12.7. That is two of the three statistical levers that decide low scoring contests, both pointed the home side’s way.
The forecast is light rain and 13 degrees. That suits the home side more than a midweek soft Bombers list trying to keep up.
The model has Dees by 25, the line is 30.5, and the head to head at $1.18 is the only sensible play. Big spread, no value, gun to head.
Melbourne vs Essendon Tip
Back the Melbourne Demons in the head to head at $1.18; the model has the Dees winning by 25 against an Essendon side sitting bottom of the ladder on one win from 13.
Melbourne vs Essendon Key Stats
LADDER POSITION
MEL50
ESS50
Melbourne sit fifth at 8 and 5 and live for the finals window. Essendon sit dead last at 1 and 12 and the only conversation in their season is the wooden spoon.
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
MEL60%
ESS0%
The Dees are three from five. Essendon have lost five straight, by margins of 5, 30, 18, 43 and 14 points. The bleed is structural.
CENTRE CLEARANCES
MEL15
ESS13
The Demons win the centre bounce by nearly three a game. On a wet MCG deck the team that owns first hands at the centre owns the contest.
Melbourne vs Essendon Form Guide
Melbourne Demons
WLLWW
- W 83-75 vs Collingwood
- L 70-119 vs GWS Giants
- L 90-93 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 120-81 vs Hawthorn
- W 99-67 vs West Coast Eagles
Essendon Bombers
LLLLL
- L 67-72 vs Carlton
- L 55-85 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 56-74 vs Richmond
- L 61-104 vs Fremantle
- L 89-103 vs GWS Giants
Final Verdict
No real value at $1.18 and the 30.5 line is too rich to chase. Gun to our head, take Melbourne in the head to head and accept the price for what it is.
OUR PICK: Melbourne Demons H2H @ $1.18
No real value to be had here. If we had to play one, this is it.
Key Facts
| Match | Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers |
| Date | Saturday, June 13 |
| Kick-off | 1:15pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 14 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Melbourne Demons H2H @ $1.18 |
| Predicted Score | Melbourne Demons 111 – Essendon Bombers 87 |
Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers FAQs
Who will win Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers?
Our model tips the Melbourne Demons to win by 25 points at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Melbourne sit fifth on the ladder at 8 and 5. Essendon sit dead last at 1 and 12 and are on a five game losing streak.
What is the tip for Melbourne vs Essendon in Round 14?
Melbourne Demons in the head to head at $1.18 is our recommended pick. The model has the margin at 25 points, the market line at 30.5, and the 30 point spread is outside our sweet spot band.
Where is the Melbourne vs Essendon Round 14 match being played?
The match is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, kicking off at 1:15pm on Saturday 13 June 2026.
Verified result – Round 14
We tipped Melbourne Demons to win – correct. Final score: Melbourne Demons 95 – Essendon Bombers 50.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Melbourne Demons H2H @ $1.18 | Win | +0.18u |
Predicted: Melbourne Demons 111 – Essendon Bombers 87. Off by 21 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
