Essendon vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton win this. Essendon are 18th, winless across their last…
Collingwood vs Melbourne Prediction
Melbourne are favourites at $1.83. Collingwood are at $2.01 and are home. The model has the Pies winning by three, the market has the Demons winning by two and a half, and the truth is this is a coin flip dressed up as a tip.
AFL Round 13 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
COL
$2.01
Monday, June 8 • 3:15pm
95 : 92
MCG
MEL
$1.83
Collingwood Magpies by 3 points
Model Predicted Margin
Collingwood Magpies by 3
Current Market
Collingwood Magpies +2.5
0.5 pts edge
Recommended BetHEAD TO HEAD
Collingwood Magpies H2H @ $2.01
No model edge at this price
Model has the home Pies by three against a Melbourne side the market has at a goal. Close one, thin sample, the Pies are the call.
Claim This Tip at bet365 - Offer bet365
Odds correct at time of posting
How to read our tips
Best Bet means the model finds real value at the current market price. This is where we put the units. Recommended Bet means the model has no edge at the price. If we had to play one, this is the call, but we only track profit and ROI on our Best Bets.
Both Teams Have Been Patchy and Both Have a Real Chance. Our Model Picks the Magpies by Three.
This one is a coin flip. Both sides have been patchy across their last five. Collingwood are 11th, Melbourne are sixth, but the form line between them is closer than the ladder suggests.
Our model has the Pies winning by three. The market has the Demons by two and a half. That is a five point swing between the model and the market, and it is the home ground edge doing the work.
Collingwood at the MCG on Queen’s Birthday is the kind of variable the market sometimes underweights. The Pies drew with Hawthorn two weeks ago and pushed Sydney to six points before that. They are not a side that gets blown out at home.
The risk is Melbourne being the better side over four quarters. The Dees have rolled Hawthorn and West Coast inside the last month, both comfortably. A live underdog is still an underdog, and the model flags this call sits in a thin historical sample.
At $2.01 the model thinks there is value, but the bookies have weighed home ground and decided it is not enough. If you are playing this one, the Pies are our call. If you are looking for the round’s strongest play, it is not here.
Collingwood vs Melbourne Tip
Back the Collingwood Magpies to win at $2.01; our model has the Pies by three against a Melbourne side the market has favoured by a goal.
Collingwood vs Melbourne Key Stats
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
COL20%
MEL40%
Both sides have been patchy. The Demons are the more recent form team, but neither has been humming.
RECENT MOMENTUM
COL86
MEL104
Melbourne carry a notable momentum edge into the MCG. The model still backs the Pies because home ground tilts the equation.
DAYS REST
COL9
MEL8
Both sides arrive on similar prep. Rest is not the deciding factor here.
Collingwood vs Melbourne Form Guide
Collingwood Magpies
LWLLL
- L 93-97 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 92-82 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 75-81 vs Sydney Swans
- L 68-122 vs Geelong Cats
- D 93-93 vs Hawthorn
Melbourne Demons
LLWWL
- L 70-119 vs GWS Giants
- L 90-93 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 120-81 vs Hawthorn
- W 99-67 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 114-131 vs Sydney Swans
Final Verdict
No clear value, but the model leans Collingwood at home on Queen’s Birthday. If you are taking the Monday afternoon punt, $2.01 is the play.
OUR PICK: Collingwood Magpies H2H @ $2.01
No real value to be had here. If we had to play one, this is it.
Key Facts
| Match | Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons |
| Date | Monday, June 8 |
| Kick-off | 3:15pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 13 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Collingwood Magpies H2H @ $2.01 |
| Predicted Score | Collingwood Magpies 95 – Melbourne Demons 92 |
Collingwood Magpies vs Melbourne Demons FAQs
Who will win Collingwood vs Melbourne?
Our model tips Collingwood to win by 3 points at the MCG on Queen’s Birthday. The Pies sit 11th on the ladder with five wins and six losses, while Melbourne sit sixth on seven and five. The market disagrees and has Melbourne favoured by a goal.
What is the best bet for Collingwood vs Melbourne in Round 13?
Collingwood to win at $2.01 is our recommended pick, not a flagged best bet. The model picks the home underdog against the market on a historically thin sample. If you are taking the Queen’s Birthday bet, the Pies are the call. If you are chasing the round’s strongest play, it is not in this game.
Where is the Collingwood vs Melbourne Round 13 match being played?
The match is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Monday 8 June 2026, with first bounce at 3:15pm AEST.
Verified result – Round 13
We tipped Collingwood Magpies to win – incorrect. Final score: Collingwood Magpies 75 – Melbourne Demons 83.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Collingwood Magpies H2H @ $2.01 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Collingwood Magpies 95 – Melbourne Demons 92. Off by 11 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
