Carlton vs Geelong Prediction
Form lines have flipped since these two last met. Carlton…
St Kilda vs Hawthorn Prediction
Hawks travel across to Marvel as solid 12-and-a-half point favourites and the model agrees they get the win, just not by anywhere near that much. Saints sit eleventh on the ladder, Hawthorn fourth, but we’ve got the game as a 6-point Hawks win. That’s a full goal of value sitting on the spread, and we take it.
AFL Round 12 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
STK
$2.60
Thursday, May 28 • 7:30pm
90 : 96
Marvel Stadium
HAW
$1.50
Hawthorn Hawks by 6 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn Hawks by 6
Current Market
St Kilda Saints +12.5
6.5 pts tighter
Best BetLINE BETTING
St Kilda Saints +12.5 @ $1.90
Model has Hawthorn winning by 6, a full goal inside the market’s 12.5-point line. Hawthorn lead 2-1 in the recent head-to-head, but only one of the last three meetings was decided by more than 20 points.
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Odds correct at time of posting
The market has Hawthorn by two goals at Marvel. The model has them by one. The points are sitting there.
This is a line value play, not an upset shout. The model has Hawthorn winning, the market has Hawthorn winning, the question is by how much. Market says 12.5. Model says 6. That’s the bet right there.
Saints sit eleventh on the ladder at 5 wins and 6 losses, but they have rolled into Round 12 with a 60% win rate over their last five, which is more than the market is giving them credit for. Marvel is their home deck, the travel ledger is zero for both sides, and the momentum reading sits at 89.3 to 91.7. That is not a 12-point gap.
Hawthorn sit fourth on the ladder at 7 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses, and are the better side on Elo, about 207 points clear, which earns them favouritism, fairly. They have got the form trend and the model’s net attack-versus-defence read leans their way. But every metric that says Hawks then pulls them down to a 6-point margin, not 12.5.
When the model and the market agree on the winner and only disagree on the margin, the spread is the bet. Saints with the points cover a Hawks win up to 12. Anything closer and the underdog punter is paid.
St Kilda vs Hawthorn Tip
Hawthorn win by 6 at Marvel and the value is on St Kilda plus 12.5 at $1.90, because the model says the line is a full goal too long for the favourite.
St Kilda vs Hawthorn Key Stats
LADDER POSITION
STK11
HAW4
Saints sit seven rungs below the Hawks. The market is pricing the gap; the model thinks it’s too much.
PREDICTED SCORE
STK90
HAW96
Six-point game on the model. The market is pricing a margin twice that size.
WIN % LAST 5
STK60%
HAW40%
Saints have actually been the better recent form team, yet they are the 12.5-point underdog.
MOMENTUM
STK89
HAW92
Almost level. The line should reflect that and it doesn’t.
St Kilda vs Hawthorn Form Guide
St Kilda Saints
LWLWW
- L 74-104 vs Walyalup
- W 109-73 vs Richmond
- L 60-89 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 108-69 vs Carlton
- W 143-42 vs Waalitj Marawar
Hawthorn Hawks
WLLDW
- W 75-66 vs Kuwarna
- L 81-120 vs Narrm
- L 73-88 vs Walyalup
- D 93-93 vs Collingwood
- W 112-63 vs Gold Coast Suns
Final Verdict
Take the points. Saints plus 12.5 at $1.90.
LOCK IT IN: St Kilda Saints +12.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks |
| Date | Thursday, May 28 |
| Kick-off | 7:30pm AEST |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 12 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | St Kilda Saints +12.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | St Kilda Saints 90 – Hawthorn Hawks 96 |
St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks FAQs
Who will win St Kilda vs Hawthorn?
Our model tips Hawthorn to win by 6 points at Marvel Stadium in Round 12. The Hawks sit fourth on the ladder at 7-1-3; the Saints sit eleventh at 5-6. That model margin is much narrower than the market’s 12.5-point line, which is why the best bet sits on St Kilda with the points rather than on the head-to-head.
What is the best bet for St Kilda vs Hawthorn in Round 12?
St Kilda Saints plus 12.5 at $1.90 is our recommended best bet. The model has Hawthorn winning by 6, which means anything tighter than a 13-point Hawks win pays the spread.
Where is the St Kilda vs Hawthorn Round 12 match being played?
The match is at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne on Thursday 28 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 12
We tipped Hawthorn Hawks to win – correct. Final score: St Kilda Saints 67 – Hawthorn Hawks 119.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | St Kilda Saints +12.5 @ $1.90 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: St Kilda Saints 90 – Hawthorn Hawks 96. Off by 46 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
