Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Prediction – Round 11 2026
Western Bulldogs host Melbourne at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon…
Richmond vs Essendon Prediction – Round 11 2026
Richmond host Essendon at the MCG on Friday night with the model leaning the Bombers by nineteen. The market wants twelve and a half. That six-and-a-half-point gap is where the bet lives.
AFL Round 11 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
RIC
$2.58
Friday, May 22 • 7:45pm
71 : 90
MCG
ESS
$1.51
Essendon Bombers by 19 points
Model Predicted Margin
Essendon Bombers by 19
Current Market
Richmond Tigers +12.5
6.5 pts edge
Best BetLINE BETTING
Essendon Bombers -12.5 @ $1.90
Model has the Dons winning by 19 at the MCG, market wants 12.5, and the six-and-a-half-point gap on the line favours the favourite covering.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes - Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Model Now Has Essendon Pulling Away From a Listless Richmond at the MCG by Nineteen.
Both sides have one win and nine losses. Both sides have lost five of their last six. The model now leans Essendon by nineteen, the market still wants twelve and a half, and that six-and-a-half-point gap is the value play of the round.
Richmond’s recent losses have been the ugly kind. A 75-point hammering by North Melbourne, a 54-point loss to Melbourne, and a thumping by St Kilda. The scoreboard tells you the Tigers are not just losing, they are being overrun. The defensive structure has gone.
Essendon’s record is no better on the surface but the losses sit closer to the line. The Dons stayed within 14 of GWS, within 9 of Gold Coast, and within 43 of Walyalup. Same wins on the board, less of the score-bleed that puts the line in real danger.
This is not a confidence game. Essendon’s ruck is the only structural advantage in the contest, and they are five and a half points clear of Richmond in scoring on average. At the MCG with a Friday-night crowd, that is enough to cover.
Take the line. Essendon by nineteen, market wants twelve and a half, and the minus 12.5 at $1.90 is the right side.
Richmond vs Essendon Tip
Back the Essendon Bombers minus twelve and a half at $1.90; the model has the Dons winning by nineteen at the MCG, the market line sits at twelve and a half, and Essendon’s losses have been less catastrophic than Richmond’s heavy defeats.
Richmond vs Essendon Key Stats
AVERAGE GOALS PER GAME
RIC9
ESS12
Essendon score more than two extra goals per game on average. In a season where neither side has been able to defend, scoring power decides the cover.
AVERAGE MARKS
RIC85
ESS91
The Bombers control the aerial contest by nearly six marks a game. Richmond’s defensive structure has been the worst-rated unit in the competition this season.
AVERAGE HIT-OUTS
RIC22
ESS28
Essendon hold a clear ruck edge. Richmond have been pumped at stoppages all year, conceding nearly six extra hit-outs a game.
Richmond vs Essendon Form Guide
Richmond Tigers
LLWLL
- L 109-73 vs Euro-Yroke
- L 61-98 vs Kuwarna
- W 88-99 vs Waalitj Marawar
- L 72-126 vs Narrm
- L 130-55 vs North Melbourne
Essendon Bombers
LLLLL
- L 61-104 vs Walyalup
- L 103-89 vs GWS Giants
- L 79-143 vs Brisbane Lions
- L 60-137 vs Collingwood
- L 119-110 vs Gold Coast SUNS
Final Verdict
Both teams are broken but Essendon are the less-broken team and the model now has them pulling away. Take Essendon minus twelve and a half at $1.90 and let the model number do the talking.
LOCK IT IN: Essendon Bombers -12.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers |
| Date | Friday, May 22 |
| Kick-off | 7:45pm AEST |
| Venue | Melbourne Cricket Ground |
| Round | AFL Round 11 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Essendon Bombers -12.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Richmond Tigers 71 – Essendon Bombers 90 |
Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers FAQs
Who will win Richmond vs Essendon?
Our model tips the Essendon Bombers to win by 19 points at the MCG. Both teams sit at one win and nine losses, but Essendon have scored more heavily and their recent losses have been closer than Richmond’s. The Dons average two goals more per game.
What is the best bet for Richmond vs Essendon in Round 11?
Essendon Bombers minus 12.5 at $1.90 is our recommended best bet. The market has the Dons by 12.5 and our model has the margin at 19. That six-and-a-half-point gap on the line is the value play.
Where is the Richmond vs Essendon Round 11 match being played?
The match is at the MCG in Melbourne, kicking off at 7:45pm on Friday 22 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 11
We tipped Essendon Bombers to win – incorrect. Final score: Richmond Tigers 74 – Essendon Bombers 56.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Essendon Bombers -12.5 @ $1.90 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Richmond Tigers 71 – Essendon Bombers 90. Off by 37 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
