Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Prediction – Round 11 2026
Western Bulldogs host Melbourne at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon…
Port Adelaide vs Carlton Prediction – Round 11 2026
Port Adelaide host Carlton at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night with the model leaning the Power by twelve. The market wants ten and a half. Port have rolled Carlton at home twice in their last three meetings; the line is the play.
AFL Round 11 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
PTA
$1.56
Saturday, May 23 • 7:35pm
92 : 80
Adelaide Oval
CAR
$2.44
Port Adelaide Power by 12 points
Model Predicted Margin
Port Adelaide Power by 12
Current Market
Port Adelaide Power -10.5
1.5 pts edge
Best BetLINE BETTING
Port Adelaide Power -10.5 @ $1.90
Model has the Power winning by 12 at Adelaide Oval, market wants 10.5, and Port have beaten Carlton by 50 and 14 in two of their last three meetings.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes – Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Port Have Beaten Carlton by 50 and 14 in Their Last Two Adelaide Oval Encounters; the Power Cover.
Both sides are struggling. Port sit fourteenth at three wins and seven losses. Carlton sit sixteenth at two and eight. Neither has won more than one of their last five. But Adelaide Oval changes everything for the Power.
The last three meetings tell the story. Port won at home by 50 points in Round 16. Port won away from home by 14 points in Round 20. Carlton’s only win came at the MCG by 54 in Round 23 of last year. Take Carlton out of their preferred surface and into Adelaide and the contest is one-sided.
The ruck battle is where the game gets decided. Port average nearly nine more hit-outs per game than Carlton in head-to-head comparison. With light rain forecast for kickoff, first use of the ball at every stoppage tilts the game further toward the Power. Port’s forward fifty is the matchup the Blues do not have an answer to.
Carlton are dangerous when their midfield dominates and their forward line gets clean entries inside fifty, but their road record this season is the worst of any top-sixteen side. The Blues do not travel well and Adelaide Oval has historically been a hard place to grind out a win.
Take the line. Power by twelve, market wants ten and a half, and the Adelaide Oval crowd does the rest.
Port Adelaide vs Carlton Tip
Back the Port Adelaide Power minus ten and a half at $1.90; the model has the Power home by twelve at Adelaide Oval, where they have beaten Carlton by 50 and 14 in two of their last three meetings.
Port Adelaide vs Carlton Key Stats
AVERAGE HIT-OUTS
PTA39
CAR31
Port win the ruck contest by nearly nine hit-outs per game. With light rain forecast, first use of the ball at every stoppage is the structural advantage.
AVERAGE MARKS
PTA104
CAR92
The Power control the aerial contest by eleven marks per game. Adelaide Oval’s wide pockets reward sides that move the ball through the corridor with chain marking.
AVERAGE GOALS PER GAME
PTA12
CAR11
Port score nearly a goal more per game on average. Both sides struggle to defend; the side with marginally more attack wins by more.
Port Adelaide vs Carlton Form Guide
Port Adelaide Power
LLLWL
- L 73-98 vs Gold Coast Suns
- L 72-74 vs Western Bulldogs
- L 75-76 vs Adelaide Crows
- W 95-65 vs Geelong Cats
- L 86-89 vs Hawthorn
Carlton Blues
WLLLL
- W 74-62 vs Western Bulldogs
- L 89-100 vs Brisbane Lions
- L 69-108 vs St Kilda
- L 89-103 vs Fremantle
- L 83-88 vs Collingwood
Final Verdict
Port have beaten Carlton at home by an average of 32 points in their last two Adelaide Oval encounters. Take Port minus ten and a half at $1.90 and let the model number do the talking.
LOCK IT IN: Port Adelaide Power -10.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | Port Adelaide Power vs Carlton Blues |
| Date | Saturday, May 23 |
| Kick-off | 7:35pm ACST |
| Venue | Adelaide Oval |
| Round | AFL Round 11 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Port Adelaide Power -10.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Port Adelaide Power 92 – Carlton Blues 80 |
Port Adelaide Power vs Carlton Blues FAQs
Who will win Port Adelaide vs Carlton?
Our model tips the Port Adelaide Power to win by 12 points at Adelaide Oval. Port sit fourteenth on the ladder at three wins and seven losses while Carlton are sixteenth at two and eight. Port have beaten Carlton by 50 and 14 in their last two Adelaide Oval encounters.
What is the best bet for Port Adelaide vs Carlton in Round 11?
Port Adelaide Power minus 10.5 at $1.90 is our recommended best bet. The market has the Power by 10.5 and our model has the margin at 12. The H2H pattern of two heavy Port wins in three meetings supports the favourite at the line.
Where is the Port Adelaide vs Carlton Round 11 match being played?
The match is at Adelaide Oval, kicking off at 7:35pm on Saturday 23 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 11
We tipped Port Adelaide Power to win – incorrect. Final score: Port Adelaide Power 58 – Carlton Blues 92.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Port Adelaide Power -10.5 @ $1.90 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Port Adelaide Power 92 – Carlton Blues 80. Off by 46 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
