Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Prediction – Round 11 2026
Western Bulldogs host Melbourne at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon…
North Melbourne vs Gold Coast Prediction – Round 11 2026
North Melbourne host Gold Coast at Marvel Stadium on Saturday afternoon with the model leaning the Suns by nine. The market wants ten and a half. Gold Coast sit fourth on the ladder; the Roos sit twelfth and are losing the wrong way.
AFL Round 11 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
NME
$2.44
Saturday, May 23 • 1:15pm
93 : 102
Marvel Stadium
GCS
$1.56
Gold Coast Suns by 9 points
Model Predicted Margin
Gold Coast Suns by 9
Current Market
North Melbourne Kangaroos +10.5
1.5 pts tighter
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Gold Coast Suns H2H @ $1.56
Model has the Suns winning by 9 at Marvel, market wants 10.5, and Gold Coast have beaten North Melbourne by 52 and 68 in two of their last three meetings.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes - Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Top-Eight Suns Travel to Marvel With Two Recent Thrashings of the Roos in the Memory Bank.
Gold Coast are fourth on the ladder at seven wins and three losses. North Melbourne are twelfth at four and six and have dropped four of their last five. The Suns have won seven of their last ten. Form, ladder, and head-to-head all line up.
The last three encounters between these sides read like a warning. Gold Coast won by 52 points, by 68 points, and the only North Melbourne win in that window was by four. The Roos do not match up to a Suns side that runs hard and scores quickly.
Marvel Stadium under a roof on a Saturday afternoon plays into the Suns’ running game. Gold Coast average six inside fifties more per game than the Roos and ten extra hit-outs in the ruck. That is the structural edge.
North Melbourne are not bad enough to get rolled by ten and a half every week, and their defensive numbers say they will keep the contest watchable. But the model wants nine, the market wants ten and a half, and the H2H at $1.56 is the right side of the bet.
Take the Suns. Gold Coast by nine, market wants ten and a half, and the $1.56 head-to-head is the cleanest call.
North Melbourne vs Gold Coast Tip
Back the Gold Coast Suns head-to-head at $1.56; the model has the Suns winning by nine at Marvel, the market line sits at ten and a half, and Gold Coast have thumped North Melbourne by 52 and 68 in two of their last three meetings.
North Melbourne vs Gold Coast Key Stats
AVERAGE INSIDE 50S
NME52
GCS58
Gold Coast move the ball forward six more times per game on average. That territory edge is the foundation of their fourth-place ladder position.
AVERAGE HIT-OUTS
NME30
GCS40
The Suns hold a ten-hit-out edge. First use of the ball from stoppages decides the early run of play at Marvel.
AVERAGE GOALS PER GAME
NME14
GCS15
The Suns score one extra goal per game on average. North Melbourne’s defensive structure has held up better than their record but the scoring gap is real.
North Melbourne vs Gold Coast Form Guide
North Melbourne Kangaroos
LLLLW
- L 133-65 vs Kuwarna
- L 97-105 vs Sydney Swans
- L 135-86 vs Geelong Cats
- L 105-98 vs GWS Giants
- W 130-55 vs Richmond
Gold Coast Suns
WWWLW
- W 98-73 vs Yartapuulti
- W 89-60 vs Euro-Yroke
- W 83-63 vs GWS Giants
- L 112-63 vs Hawthorn
- W 119-110 vs Essendon
Final Verdict
Gold Coast are too good for this version of North Melbourne. Take the Suns head-to-head at $1.56 and let the form guide do the talking.
LOCK IT IN: Gold Coast Suns H2H @ $1.56
Key Facts
| Match | North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns |
| Date | Saturday, May 23 |
| Kick-off | 1:15pm AEST |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 11 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Gold Coast Suns H2H @ $1.56 |
| Predicted Score | North Melbourne Kangaroos 93 – Gold Coast Suns 102 |
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast Suns FAQs
Who will win North Melbourne vs Gold Coast?
Our model tips the Gold Coast Suns to win by 9 points at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne. Gold Coast sit fourth on the ladder at seven wins and three losses while the Roos are twelfth at four and six. The Suns have won two of the last three head-to-head meetings by 52 and 68 points.
What is the best bet for North Melbourne vs Gold Coast in Round 11?
Gold Coast Suns head-to-head at $1.56 is our recommended best bet. The market has the Suns by 10.5 and our model has the margin at 9. With a 2-1 head-to-head edge featuring two heavy wins, the favourite straight up is the cleanest call.
Where is the North Melbourne vs Gold Coast Round 11 match being played?
The match is at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, kicking off at 1:15pm on Saturday 23 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 11
We tipped Gold Coast Suns to win – incorrect. Final score: North Melbourne Kangaroos 111 – Gold Coast Suns 105.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Gold Coast Suns H2H @ $1.56 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: North Melbourne Kangaroos 93 – Gold Coast Suns 102. Off by 15 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
