Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Prediction – Round 11 2026
Western Bulldogs host Melbourne at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon…
Hawthorn vs Adelaide Prediction – Round 11 2026
Hawthorn host Adelaide at UTAS Stadium on Thursday night with the model leaning the Hawks by fourteen. The market has them at fifteen and a half. The line is tight, the head-to-head sits the Hawks’ way, and the H2H at $1.41 is the cleanest read.
AFL Round 11 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
HAW
$1.41
• 7:30pm
98 : 84
University of Tasmania Stadium
ADE
$2.94
Hawthorn Hawks by 14 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn Hawks by 14
Current Market
Hawthorn Hawks -15.5
1.5 pts tighter
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Hawthorn Hawks H2H @ $1.41
Model has the Hawks winning by 14 at UTAS Stadium where they have beaten Adelaide in two of their last three meetings including a 34-point semi-final, Adelaide travel 1,039km to get there, and the H2H at $1.41 is the cleanest call with the line at 15.5.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes – Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Hawks Land in Launceston Off Two Losses; Adelaide Fly in From 1,039km Across Bass Strait.
Hawthorn have dropped their last two and Adelaide are flying. The model sits the Hawks by fourteen. Market line is fifteen and a half. That makes the line a coin flip, so the bet is the favourite straight up at $1.41.
Launceston is the reason. Adelaide clocked up 1,039 kilometres to get there, and UTAS Stadium is the AFL’s most reliable secondary-home fortress. The Hawks have used it for two decades to wash off road trips and bad fortnights. Thursday night under lights against an angry Hawthorn at their Tassie home is a different fixture to the one the form guide suggests.
The head-to-head sits two wins to one for the Hawks in the last three meetings, headlined by a 34-point semi-final demolition of the Crows. Adelaide have not beaten this version of Hawthorn in a meaningful game.
Adelaide are genuine. Four wins from five including a 68-point thumping of North Melbourne says the form is real. But the road trip, the venue, the H2H – three structural edges all line up the one way.
Take the favourite. Hawks win by fourteen, market wants fifteen and a half, and the H2H at $1.41 is the right side of the bet.
Hawthorn vs Adelaide Tip
Back Hawthorn head-to-head at $1.41; the model has the Hawks home by fourteen at UTAS Stadium, where they hold a two-from-three head-to-head edge over the Crows including a 34-point semi-final win, and Adelaide arrive off a 1,039-kilometre travel day.
Hawthorn vs Adelaide Key Stats
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
HAW60%
ADE80%
Adelaide arrive in red-hot form with four wins from their last five, including a 68-point thumping of North Melbourne. Hawthorn have dropped their last two but the model still leans them on Tassie soil.
AVERAGE INSIDE 50S
HAW56
ADE52
Hawthorn move the ball forward four more times per game on average. That territory edge has been their UTAS Stadium signature.
AVERAGE HIT-OUTS
HAW45
ADE40
First use of the ball from stoppages is a Hawks strength. Five extra hit-outs a game feeds the Hawthorn midfield engine.
Hawthorn vs Adelaide Form Guide
Hawthorn Hawks
LLLWW
- L 81-120 vs Melbourne
- L 73-88 vs Fremantle
- D 93-93 vs Collingwood
- W 112-63 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 89-86 vs Port Adelaide
Adelaide Crows
WWWLW
- W 133-65 vs North Melbourne
- W 98-61 vs Richmond
- W 76-75 vs Port Adelaide
- L 75-127 vs Brisbane Lions
- W 103-102 vs St Kilda
Final Verdict
Hawthorn at home in Launceston against a Crows side they have beaten in their last meaningful encounter, fresh off a 1,039-kilometre travel day. Take Hawthorn head-to-head at $1.41 and let the venue close the deal.
LOCK IT IN: Hawthorn Hawks H2H @ $1.41
Key Facts
| Match | Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows |
| Date | Thursday, May 21 |
| Kick-off | 7:30pm AEST |
| Venue | University of Tasmania Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 11 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Hawthorn Hawks H2H @ $1.41 |
| Predicted Score | Hawthorn Hawks 98 – Adelaide Crows 84 |
Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows FAQs
Who will win Hawthorn vs Adelaide?
Our model tips the Hawthorn Hawks to win by 14 points at UTAS Stadium in Launceston. Adelaide arrive with four wins from their last five, but Hawthorn have won two of the last three head-to-head meetings including a 34-point semi-final win, and the Crows fly in off a 1,039-kilometre travel day.
What is the best bet for Hawthorn vs Adelaide in Round 11?
Hawthorn Hawks head-to-head at $1.41 is our recommended best bet. The market has the Hawks favoured by 15.5 and our model has the margin at 14. With the line sitting just outside the model number, the H2H is the cleaner call than the line bet.
Where is the Hawthorn vs Adelaide Round 11 match being played?
The match is at UTAS Stadium in Launceston, kicking off at 7:30pm on Thursday 21 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 11
We tipped Hawthorn Hawks to win – correct. Final score: Hawthorn Hawks 75 – Adelaide Crows 66.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Hawthorn Hawks H2H @ $1.41 | Win | +0.41u |
Predicted: Hawthorn Hawks 98 – Adelaide Crows 84. Off by 5 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
