Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne Prediction – Round 11 2026
Western Bulldogs host Melbourne at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon…
GWS vs Brisbane Prediction – Round 11 2026
GWS host Brisbane at ENGIE Stadium on Sunday lunchtime with the model leaning the Lions by fourteen. The market wants fourteen and a half. With the model sitting on top of the market line, the head-to-head is the cleanest read.
AFL Round 11 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
GRE
$2.67
Sunday, May 24 • 12:30pm
80 : 94
ENGIE Stadium
BRL
$1.48
Brisbane Lions by 14 points
Model Predicted Margin
Brisbane Lions by 14
Current Market
Greater Western Sydney Giants +14.5
0.5 pts tighter
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.48
Model has the Lions winning by 14 at ENGIE Stadium, market wants 14.5, the most recent semi-final between these sides went the Lions’ way by 5 points, and Brisbane arrive on ten days rest against a Giants side backing up after seven.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes – Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Lions Arrive on Ten Days Rest Against a Giants Side Backing Up After Only Seven Days.
Brisbane are seventh on the ladder at six wins and four losses. GWS are thirteenth at four and six. The model wants the Lions by fourteen, the market wants fourteen and a half, and the bet is the favourite straight up.
The rest disparity is the structural angle. Brisbane have had ten days between fixtures while the Giants are backing up after seven days. Three extra days of recovery against a side already running on short rest is the kind of small edge that compounds into the third quarter, especially with a 12:30pm Sunday kickoff where intensity is harder to summon.
The head-to-head sits two wins to one in favour of the Giants in the last three meetings, but the most recent encounter was a 5-point Brisbane win in last year’s semi-final. The Lions know how to win at ENGIE Stadium when the game matters and they have done it on the biggest stage.
Brisbane are the back-to-back premiers for a reason. Their midfield is humming despite the Lions’ inconsistent ladder position this season. The Lions average three extra goals per game compared to GWS in head-to-head data – fifteen to twelve – and that scoring edge is the structural difference.
Take the favourite. Lions by fourteen, market wants fourteen and a half, and the H2H at $1.48 is the right side.
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Brisbane Tip
Back the Brisbane Lions head-to-head at $1.48; the model has the Lions winning by fourteen at ENGIE Stadium, the market line sits at fourteen and a half, and the most recent semi-final between these sides went the Lions’ way.
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Brisbane Key Stats
AVERAGE GOALS PER GAME
GRE12
BRL15
Brisbane score three extra goals per game on average. The Lions’ forward line is the most balanced in the competition.
AVERAGE MARKS
GRE88
BRL115
The Lions control the aerial contest by twenty-seven marks per game. That possession game is the foundation of their back-to-back premiership.
AVERAGE CLEARANCES
GRE35
BRL42
Brisbane win the midfield contest by nearly seven clearances per game. With their class running the middle, the Lions dictate where the football goes.
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Brisbane Form Guide
Greater Western Sydney Giants
LWLWL
- L 66-107 vs Sydney Swans
- W 105-98 vs North Melbourne
- L 63-83 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 103-89 vs Essendon
- L 71-88 vs West Coast Eagles
Brisbane Lions
LWWWL
- L 102-104 vs Melbourne
- W 127-75 vs Adelaide Crows
- W 143-79 vs Essendon
- W 100-89 vs Carlton
- L 76-117 vs Geelong Cats
Final Verdict
Brisbane are the back-to-back premiers and the most recent encounter at ENGIE was the Lions’ way. Take the Lions head-to-head at $1.48 and let the model number do the talking.
LOCK IT IN: Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.48
Key Facts
| Match | Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Brisbane Lions |
| Date | Sunday, May 24 |
| Kick-off | 12:30pm AEST |
| Venue | Engie Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 11 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.48 |
| Predicted Score | Greater Western Sydney Giants 80 – Brisbane Lions 94 |
Greater Western Sydney Giants vs Brisbane Lions FAQs
Who will win GWS vs Brisbane?
Our model tips the Brisbane Lions to win by 14 points at ENGIE Stadium in Sydney. Brisbane sit seventh on the ladder at six wins and four losses while GWS are thirteenth at four and six. The Lions won the most recent meeting between these sides – last year’s semi-final – by 5 points.
What is the best bet for GWS vs Brisbane in Round 11?
Brisbane Lions head-to-head at $1.48 is our recommended best bet. The market has the Lions by 14.5 and our model has the margin at 14. With the model sitting right on the market line, the favourite straight up is the cleanest call.
Where is the GWS vs Brisbane Round 11 match being played?
The match is at ENGIE Stadium in Sydney, kicking off at 12:30pm on Sunday 24 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 11
We tipped Brisbane Lions to win – incorrect. Final score: Greater Western Sydney Giants 166 – Brisbane Lions 88.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.48 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Greater Western Sydney Giants 80 – Brisbane Lions 94. Off by 92 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
