Fremantle vs St Kilda Prediction – Round 11 2026

AFL Round 11 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

FRE

$1.25

Friday, May 22 • 8:30pm

94 : 71

Optus Stadium

STK

$4.00

Fremantle Dockers by 23 points

Model Predicted Margin

Fremantle Dockers by 23

Current Market

Fremantle Dockers -25.5

2.5 pts tighter

Best BetLINE BETTING

St Kilda Saints +25.5 @ $1.90

Model has Fremantle winning by 23, the market wants 25.5, and the Saints’ defensive structure has kept their losses inside the line all season.

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Odds correct at time of posting

Saints Fly 2,722km Cross-Country to Optus; the Dockers Win but the Line Is the Stretch.

Fremantle are second on the ladder with nine wins and one loss. Optus Stadium is the closest thing the AFL has to a true home-ground advantage. The Dockers are the rightful favourite. Twenty-five and a half is a stretch.

St Kilda fly 2,722 kilometres across the country to get here, the longest interstate trip in the competition. That kind of travel quietly bleeds out of legs by the third quarter, but it also flattens the cover ceiling. The Saints will not be at their best, but they will not get hammered either.

The model wants twenty-three. The market wants twenty-five and a half. That two-and-a-half-point gap matters when St Kilda are at five wins and five losses, including a 101-point demolition of the Eagles. The Saints can still put a score on the board.

Fremantle’s home record is the engine room of their season but the recent meetings between these two clubs have not been blow-outs. They split the last three encounters two-one in favour of the Dockers, and the most recent meeting was decided by seventeen points. Twenty-five and a half is a different conversation.

The Saints’ structure is built to drag games to a half-tempo grind. That style does not blow out. Six tackles a game ahead of Fremantle in the head-to-head says they will pressure the football. Take the points. Dockers win, Saints cover, and the line at twenty-five and a half is the bet.

Fremantle vs St Kilda Tip

Back St Kilda plus twenty-five and a half at $1.90; the model has Fremantle home by twenty-three, the market line sits at twenty-five and a half, and the Saints have the structure to keep this within touching distance.

Fremantle vs St Kilda Key Stats

Fremantle vs St Kilda Form Guide

Verified result – Round 11

We tipped Fremantle Dockers to win – correct. Final score: Fremantle Dockers 104 – St Kilda Saints 74.

Predicted: Fremantle Dockers 94 – St Kilda Saints 71. Off by 7 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.