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St Kilda vs Richmond Prediction – Round 10 2026
St Kilda host Richmond at Marvel Stadium on Sunday afternoon and the model has the Saints winning by 50. The market wants 41.5. The line is the play.
AFL Round 10 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
STK
$1.10
Sunday, May 17 • 3:15pm
116 : 66
Marvel Stadium
RIC
$7.00
St Kilda Saints by 50 points
Model Predicted Margin
St Kilda Saints by 50
Current Market
St Kilda Saints -41.5
8.5 pts edge
Best BetLINE BETTING
St Kilda Saints -41.5 @ $1.90
Model has the Saints winning by 50 at Marvel Stadium, the market line of 41.5 sits 8.5 points inside the model number, and St Kilda are averaging triple-figure scores in their recent wins.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes – Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
A Fifty-Point Model Margin, a Saints Side Averaging Triple-Figure Scores, and a Tigers Outfit in Full Rebuild.
St Kilda are flying. Three from five in recent form with a points-for line of 107 a game across those wins, momentum tracking at 99.3, and a forward line that has been clicking with multi-pronged threats.
Richmond are in a full rebuild season. One from five in recent form, momentum at 62.8, and a list that is leaning hard on the next generation. The Tigers have shown fight in patches but the structural picture is bottom-three.
The model has the Saints by 50. The market has it at 41.5. That is 8.5 points inside the model number, which is the kind of cover gap the model is built to lean into when one side has the form and the other has the rebuild.
Marvel is St Kilda’s deck, the Tigers are travelling from a 130-55 loss to North Melbourne in their recent form line, and the Saints are the side everyone is talking about as a sneaky finals chance. Take the line.
St Kilda vs Richmond Tip
Back St Kilda minus 41.5 at $1.90; the model has the Saints winning by 50 against a rebuilding Richmond side, comfortably clear of the market line of 41.5.
St Kilda vs Richmond Key Stats
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
STK60%
RIC20%
St Kilda are 3 from 5 in recent form and the surprise package of the back half. Richmond are 1 from 5 and in full rebuild.
MOMENTUM
STK99
RIC63
St Kilda lead the momentum line by 36.5. That is one of the widest momentum gaps on the Round 10 card.
MODEL VS MARKET
STK50
RIC42
Model has St Kilda by 50. Market has it at 41.5. The 8.5-point gap is the cover.
St Kilda vs Richmond Form Guide
St Kilda Saints
LWWLW
- L 60-89 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 108-69 vs Carlton
- W 143-42 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 102-103 vs Adelaide Crows
- W 81-67 vs Port Adelaide
Richmond Tigers
LWLLL
- L 61-98 vs Adelaide Crows
- W 99-88 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 72-126 vs Melbourne
- L 55-130 vs North Melbourne
- L 75-131 vs GWS Giants
Final Verdict
Saints by 50 on the model, line is 41.5. Take St Kilda minus forty-one and a half at $1.90 and let the gap do the rest.
LOCK IT IN: St Kilda Saints -41.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers |
| Date | Sunday, May 17 |
| Venue | Marvel Stadium |
| Our Tip | St Kilda Saints -41.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | St Kilda Saints 116 – Richmond Tigers 66 |
St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers FAQs
Who will win St Kilda vs Richmond?
Our model tips the St Kilda Saints to win by 50 points at Marvel Stadium. St Kilda are 3 from 5 in recent form with a points-for line of 107 a game in their wins, while Richmond are 1 from 5 and in full rebuild.
What is the best bet for St Kilda vs Richmond in Round 10?
St Kilda minus 41.5 at $1.90 is our recommended best bet. The market has the Saints by 41.5 and our model has the margin at 50. The momentum gap between the two sides is 36.5.
Where is the St Kilda vs Richmond Round 10 match being played?
The match is at Marvel Stadium in Melbourne, kicking off on Sunday 17 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 10
We tipped St Kilda Saints to win – correct. Final score: St Kilda Saints 109 – Richmond Tigers 73.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | St Kilda Saints -41.5 @ $1.90 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: St Kilda Saints 116 – Richmond Tigers 66. Off by 14 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
