Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Melbourne vs Hawthorn Prediction – Round 10 2026
Melbourne host Hawthorn at the MCG on Saturday afternoon and the model has the Hawks winning by 16. The market wants 18.5. The points are the play.
AFL Round 10 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
MEL
$3.07
Saturday, May 16 • 4:15pm
97 : 112
MCG
HAW
$1.38
Hawthorn Hawks by 16 points
Model Predicted Margin
Hawthorn Hawks by 16
Current Market
Melbourne Demons +18.5
2.5 pts tighter
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Hawthorn Hawks H2H @ $1.38
Model has Hawthorn winning by only 16 points at the MCG, the market line of 18.5 sits 2.5 points outside the model number, and Melbourne are at home on a deck where they have a strong recent record.
Value BetLINE BETTING
Melbourne Demons +18.5 @ $1.90
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes – Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Sixteen-Point Tip, Eighteen-and-a-Half-Point Line, and the Value Sits with the Demons Getting the Start.
Hawthorn are the hotter side. Third on the ladder at 6-2, three wins in their last five with a draw against Collingwood mixed in, and a Win-percentage line that has them tracking as a top-four contender for the back half of the year.
Melbourne sit seventh at 6-3 but the form is harder to read. Three wins in their last five with a Demons mascot listed under its Indigenous name ‘Narrm’ in two of those, all of which were close. The Dees have momentum at 106.7, the Hawks have 104.0. That gap is much narrower than the market thinks.
The model has Hawthorn by 16. The market has it at 18.5. That is a 2.5-point edge to take, but the alignment is the bigger story, both numbers say Hawks but the line is fractionally generous. Add the home-deck dividend, the MCG is Melbourne’s deck, and 18.5 looks like a number to take.
If you prefer the H2H, Hawks at $1.38 is the safer play. If you are chasing value, Melbourne plus 18.5 is where it sits.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn Tip
Back Melbourne plus 18.5 at $1.90; the model has Hawthorn winning by 16 at the MCG, narrowly inside a market line of 18.5 that gives the Demons two and a half points of edge.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn Key Stats
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
MEL60%
HAW60%
Both sides have rolled into Round 10 at 3 from 5. Hawthorn add a draw to that, Melbourne have lost twice to themselves in cross-Indigenous-name fixtures.
MOMENTUM
MEL107
HAW104
Momentum is virtually identical, which is why the 16-point model margin sits well inside the 18.5-point market line.
LADDER POSITION
MEL50
HAW50
Hawks sit third at 6-2-1 and are the clear ladder side. Demons sit seventh at 6-3, but home-deck advantage tightens the gap.
Melbourne vs Hawthorn Form Guide
Melbourne Demons
WLWWL
- W 99-67 vs West Coast Eagles
- L 114-131 vs Sydney Swans
- W 126-72 vs Richmond
- W 104-102 vs Brisbane Lions
- L 68-113 vs Essendon
Hawthorn Hawks
LLWWW
- L 73-88 vs Fremantle
- D 93-93 vs Collingwood
- W 112-63 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 89-86 vs Port Adelaide
- W 104-64 vs Western Bulldogs
Final Verdict
The Hawks are the winners but the line is the play. Take Melbourne plus eighteen and a half at $1.90 and let the home deck close the gap.
LOCK IT IN: Melbourne Demons +18.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks |
| Date | Saturday, May 16 |
| Venue | MCG |
| Our Tip | Melbourne Demons +18.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Melbourne Demons 97 – Hawthorn Hawks 112 |
Melbourne Demons vs Hawthorn Hawks FAQs
Who will win Melbourne vs Hawthorn?
Our model tips the Hawthorn Hawks to win by 16 points at the MCG. Hawthorn sit third on the ladder at 6 wins, 2 losses and a draw while Melbourne sit seventh at 6 wins and 3 losses.
What is the best bet for Melbourne vs Hawthorn in Round 10?
Melbourne plus 18.5 at $1.90 is our recommended best bet. The market has Hawthorn winning by 18.5 and our model has the margin at only 16. Both sides have 3 wins from their last 5 games and the MCG is Melbourne’s home deck.
Where is the Melbourne vs Hawthorn Round 10 match being played?
The match is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, kicking off at 4:15pm on Saturday 16 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 10
We tipped Hawthorn Hawks to win – incorrect. Final score: Melbourne Demons 120 – Hawthorn Hawks 81.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Hawthorn Hawks H2H @ $1.38 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Melbourne Demons 97 – Hawthorn Hawks 112. Off by 54 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
