Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
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Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide Prediction – Round 10 2026
Gold Coast host Port Adelaide at TIO Stadium in Darwin on Friday night and the model has the Suns winning by 12. The market wants 25.5. The points are the play.
AFL Round 10 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
GCS
$1.24
Friday, May 15 • 8:10pm
91 : 79
TIO Stadium
PTA
$4.10
Gold Coast Suns by 12 points
Model Predicted Margin
Gold Coast Suns by 12
Current Market
Gold Coast Suns -25.5
13.5 pts tighter
Best BetLINE BETTING
Port Adelaide Power +25.5 @ $1.91
Model margin is only 12 points to the Suns at TIO Stadium, the market line of 25.5 sits 13.5 points outside the model number, and Port have lost their last four by an average of 4 points.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes – Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
A Twelve-Point Tip, a Twenty-Five-Point Line, and the Value Sits Squarely on the Power Getting the Start.
Gold Coast are the better side and they are at home in Darwin where they have a record of feeding off the heat and the travel premium. Sixth on the ladder at 6-3, they are the favourite. That part is not in dispute.
The dispute is the margin. Our model has the Suns by 12. The line is 25.5. That is a 13.5-point gap on the favourite, which is the largest model-versus-market disagreement on the entire Round 10 card.
Port Adelaide sit fourteenth at 3-6 and the recent form has been ugly. Four losses in the last five, with three of them by 5 points or fewer. That is the tell. The Power are not getting blown out. They are losing close games. A 25.5-point start against a Suns side that won 100-68 against the Power earlier in the season but only by 14 the time before is generous.
Momentum is 85.7 to 87.7, almost dead level. Take the points.
Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide Tip
Back Port Adelaide plus 25.5 at $1.91; the model has the Suns winning by only 12 at TIO, well inside a market line of 25.5 that prices Port out of the contest.
Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide Key Stats
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
GCS60%
PTA20%
Gold Coast are 3 from 5 in their last five. Port are 1 from 5 but their four losses have been by 2, 1, 3 and 14 points.
MOMENTUM
GCS86
PTA88
Momentum is almost dead level. Port are actually tracking marginally ahead, which is why the 25.5-point line looks long.
LADDER POSITION
GCS50
PTA50
Suns sit sixth at 6-3, Port sit fourteenth at 3-6. The ladder gap is real, the form gap is much narrower.
Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide Form Guide
Gold Coast Suns
WWLWL
- W 89-60 vs St Kilda
- W 83-63 vs GWS Giants
- L 63-112 vs Hawthorn
- W 119-110 vs Essendon
- L 68-100 vs Sydney Swans
Port Adelaide Power
LLWLL
- L 67-81 vs St Kilda
- L 86-89 vs Hawthorn
- W 95-65 vs Geelong Cats
- L 75-76 vs Adelaide Crows
- L 72-74 vs Western Bulldogs
Final Verdict
Suns by 12 on the model, 25.5 on the line. Back Port Adelaide plus twenty-five and a half at $1.91 and the points do the talking.
LOCK IT IN: Port Adelaide Power +25.5 @ $1.91
Key Facts
| Match | Gold Coast Suns vs Port Adelaide Power |
| Date | Friday, May 15 |
| Venue | TIO Stadium |
| Our Tip | Port Adelaide Power +25.5 @ $1.91 |
| Predicted Score | Gold Coast Suns 91 – Port Adelaide Power 79 |
Gold Coast Suns vs Port Adelaide Power FAQs
Who will win Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide?
Our model tips the Gold Coast Suns to win by 12 points at TIO Stadium in Darwin. Gold Coast sit sixth on the ladder at 6 wins and 3 losses while Port Adelaide sit fourteenth at 3 wins and 6 losses.
What is the best bet for Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide in Round 10?
Port Adelaide plus 25.5 at $1.91 is our recommended best bet. The market has the Suns winning by 25.5 and our model has the margin at only 12. Port have lost their last four games by an average of 4 points.
Where is the Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide Round 10 match being played?
The match is at TIO Stadium in Darwin, kicking off at 8:10pm on Friday 15 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 10
We tipped Gold Coast Suns to win – correct. Final score: Gold Coast Suns 98 – Port Adelaide Power 73.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Port Adelaide Power +25.5 @ $1.91 | Win | +0.91u |
Predicted: Gold Coast Suns 91 – Port Adelaide Power 79. Off by 13 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
