Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Essendon vs Fremantle Prediction – Round 10 2026
Essendon host Fremantle at the MCG on Sunday afternoon and the model has the Dockers winning by 27. The market wants 34.5. The points are the play.
AFL Round 10 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
ESS
$5.50
Sunday, May 17 • 1:10pm
82 : 108
MCG
FRE
$1.15
Fremantle Dockers by 27 points
Model Predicted Margin
Fremantle Dockers by 27
Current Market
Essendon Bombers +34.5
7.5 pts tighter
Best BetLINE BETTING
Essendon Bombers +34.5 @ $1.90
Model has the Dockers winning by 27 at the MCG, the market line of 34.5 sits 7.5 points outside the model number, and Fremantle are travelling to one of the toughest neutral decks in the comp.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes – Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Twenty-Seven-Point Tip, Thirty-Four-and-a-Half-Point Line, and the Value Sits with the Bombers Getting the Start.
Fremantle have been the best team in the comp at the form snapshot. Five wins in their last five, momentum tracking at 89.5, and a forward line that has been clicking with multi-pronged scoring.
Essendon are the other side of the story. One win in their last five with the form line dipping after a brighter early-season start. Momentum at 89.9 reads kindly, but the Bombers have been the team that finds ways to lose tight contests.
The model has the Dockers by 27. The market has it at 34.5. That is 7.5 points outside the model number, which is a sizeable gap on a favourite priced at $1.15.
Blowouts to a margin that wide need the Dockers to keep their foot down for the full four quarters away from home at the MCG. The points say they probably do not. The model says they probably do not. Take the Bombers plus 34.5 and let the line do the work.
Essendon vs Fremantle Tip
Back Essendon plus 34.5 at $1.90; the model has the Dockers winning by 27 at the MCG, well inside a market line of 34.5 that gives the Bombers seven and a half points of edge.
Essendon vs Fremantle Key Stats
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
ESS20%
FRE100%
Fremantle are 5 from 5 in their last five and the hottest side in the comp. Essendon are 1 from 5 and the form line is grim.
MOMENTUM
ESS90
FRE90
Momentum is virtually identical despite the win-record gap. That is the structural argument for taking the points.
MODEL VS MARKET
ESS27
FRE34
Model has Fremantle by 27. Market has it at 34.5. The 7.5-point gap is the value.
Essendon vs Fremantle Form Guide
Essendon Bombers
LLLLW
- L 89-103 vs GWS Giants
- L 79-143 vs Brisbane Lions
- L 60-137 vs Collingwood
- L 110-119 vs Gold Coast Suns
- W 113-68 vs Melbourne
Fremantle Dockers
WWWWW
- W 45-39 vs Collingwood
- W 97-41 vs West Coast Eagles
- W 103-89 vs Carlton
- W 114-102 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 88-73 vs Hawthorn
Final Verdict
Fremantle win, but not by five and a half goals. Take Essendon plus thirty-four and a half at $1.90 and the points cover the gap.
LOCK IT IN: Essendon Bombers +34.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | Essendon Bombers vs Fremantle Dockers |
| Date | Sunday, May 17 |
| Venue | MCG |
| Our Tip | Essendon Bombers +34.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Essendon Bombers 82 – Fremantle Dockers 108 |
Essendon Bombers vs Fremantle Dockers FAQs
Who will win Essendon vs Fremantle?
Our model tips the Fremantle Dockers to win by 27 points at the MCG. Fremantle are the form side of the comp with 5 wins in their last 5 games, while Essendon have won once in their last five.
What is the best bet for Essendon vs Fremantle in Round 10?
Essendon plus 34.5 at $1.90 is our recommended best bet. The market has the Dockers winning by 34.5 and our model has the margin at only 27. Momentum between the two sides is virtually level.
Where is the Essendon vs Fremantle Round 10 match being played?
The match is at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, kicking off on Sunday 17 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 10
We tipped Fremantle Dockers to win – correct. Final score: Essendon Bombers 61 – Fremantle Dockers 104.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Essendon Bombers +34.5 @ $1.90 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Essendon Bombers 82 – Fremantle Dockers 108. Off by 17 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
