Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
Brisbane vs Geelong Prediction – Round 10 2026
Brisbane host Geelong at the Gabba on Thursday night and the model is sitting on the Lions by 17. The market wants 15.5. The line is the play.
AFL Round 10 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
BRL
$1.45
Thursday, May 14 • 7:30pm
110 : 93
Gabba
GEE
$2.76
Brisbane Lions by 17 points
Model Predicted Margin
Brisbane Lions by 17
Current Market
Brisbane Lions -15.5
1.5 pts edge
Best BetHEAD TO HEAD
Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.45
Model has the Lions winning by 17 at the Gabba where they have beaten Geelong by 47 and 41 in their last two meetings, and the market line of 15.5 sits inside the model number.
Value BetLINE BETTING
Brisbane Lions -15.5 @ $1.90
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes - Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Back-to-Back Premiers, a Gabba Fortress, and a Cats Side That Still Wears the Bruises.
Brisbane have Geelong’s number. They smashed the Cats by 47 in last year’s Grand Final, they put 41 on them at GMHBA in round 15 last winter, and Brisbane have won two of the three most recent meetings between these sides.
Both sides sit at six wins and three losses. Ladder positions are essentially identical. The market has the Lions by fifteen and a half. Our model has it at seventeen. That is alignment, not a value gap, but the direction matters. The Lions cover.
The Gabba in May, under lights, with a crowd that has watched two flags in two years, is the hardest assignment in the comp. Brisbane have won four of their last five and they have Will Ashcroft and Hugh McCluggage humming through the middle. The Lions average 41 clearances a game to Geelong’s 35, the same midfield edge that decided last September.
Geelong are dangerous when the forward line is humming and Patrick Dangerfield is at the contest, but they have lost their qualifying final swagger and dropped a game to Port Adelaide in the recent run. That 47-point Grand Final hammering is still in the bones.
Take the line. Lions by seventeen, the market wants fifteen and a half, and the Gabba does the rest.
Brisbane vs Geelong Tip
Back the Brisbane Lions minus 15.5 at $1.90; the model has the back-to-back premiers winning by 17 at the Gabba, where they have beaten Geelong twice in their last three meetings.
Brisbane vs Geelong Key Stats
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
BRL80%
GEE60%
Brisbane are 4 from 5 with their only loss to Melbourne; Geelong are 3 from 5, having dropped games including one to Port Adelaide.
AVERAGE CLEARANCES
BRL41
GEE35
The Lions win the midfield contest by nearly six clearances a game. That is the same edge that decided the 2025 Grand Final.
AVERAGE MARKS
BRL120
GEE97
Brisbane control the aerial game and the territory battle. The Cats give up 23 marks a game; the Gabba does not forgive that.
Brisbane vs Geelong Form Guide
Brisbane Lions
WWWLW
- W 100-89 vs Carlton
- W 79-143 vs Essendon
- W 127-75 vs Kuwarna
- L 104-102 vs Narrm
- W 66-92 vs North Melbourne
Geelong Cats
WWLWW
- W 122-68 vs Collingwood
- W 135-86 vs North Melbourne
- L 95-65 vs Yartapuulti
- W 131-56 vs Western Bulldogs
- W 122-76 vs Waalitj Marawar
Final Verdict
The Lions are back-to-back premiers for a reason. Take Brisbane minus fifteen and a half at $1.90 and let the Gabba close the deal.
LOCK IT IN: Brisbane Lions -15.5 @ $1.90
Key Facts
| Match | Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats |
| Date | Thursday, May 14 |
| Venue | Gabba |
| Our Tip | Brisbane Lions -15.5 @ $1.90 |
| Predicted Score | Brisbane Lions 110 – Geelong Cats 93 |
Brisbane Lions vs Geelong Cats FAQs
Who will win Brisbane vs Geelong?
Our model tips the Brisbane Lions to win by 17 points at the Gabba. The Lions sit fourth on the ladder with six wins and three losses, while Geelong sit fifth on the same record. Brisbane have beaten Geelong in their last two meetings including last year’s Grand Final.
What is the best bet for Brisbane vs Geelong in Round 10?
Brisbane Lions minus 15.5 at $1.90 is our recommended best bet. The market has the Lions by 15.5 and our model has the margin at 17. Brisbane have beaten Geelong by 47 and 41 in their last two meetings.
Where is the Brisbane vs Geelong Round 10 match being played?
The match is at the Gabba in Brisbane, kicking off at 7:30pm on Thursday 14 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 10
We tipped Brisbane Lions to win – incorrect. Final score: Brisbane Lions 76 – Geelong Cats 117.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Brisbane Lions H2H @ $1.45 | Loss | -1.00u |
Predicted: Brisbane Lions 110 – Geelong Cats 93. Off by 58 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
