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Adelaide vs North Melbourne Prediction – Round 10 2026
Adelaide host North Melbourne at Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon and the model has the Crows winning by 26. The market wants 18.5. The line is the play.
AFL Round 10 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
ADE
$1.39
Saturday, May 16 • 1:15pm
109 : 83
Adelaide Oval
NME
$3.04
Adelaide Crows by 26 points
Model Predicted Margin
Adelaide Crows by 26
Current Market
Adelaide Crows -18.5
7.5 pts edge
Best BetLINE BETTING
Adelaide Crows -18.5 @ $1.91
Model has the Crows winning by 26 at Adelaide Oval where they hammered North 114-78 in their most recent meeting, and the market line of 18.5 sits 7.5 points inside the model number.
Claim This Tip at Ladbrokes – Offer ladbrokes
Odds correct at time of posting
Four-Win Form, an Adelaide Oval Fortress, and a Roos Side That Has Not Won Outside Round 8.
Adelaide are eighth at 5-4 but the form line is much hotter than the ladder reads. Four wins in their last five, with the only blemish a 127-75 hammering from cross-town rivals Port. Take that out and the Crows are 4 from 4 with a points-for line of 90 a game.
North Melbourne sit twelfth at 4-5 and the recent form is grim. One win in the last five, losses to Sydney, Geelong, GWS and Brisbane in that window. The Kangaroos are the worst-defended side in the comp on this snapshot, and Adelaide Oval is one of the toughest road decks going around.
Elo gives Adelaide a 351-point edge. That is enormous. The Crows have also beaten the Roos in both of their most recent meetings, including a 114-78 result at Adelaide Oval. Same venue, similar form, the model says 26 and the market line of 18.5 sits well inside that number.
The Crows cover.
Adelaide vs North Melbourne Tip
Back Adelaide minus 18.5 at $1.91; the model has the Crows winning by 26 at Adelaide Oval against a Roos side that is 1 from 5 in recent form.
Adelaide vs North Melbourne Key Stats
WIN PERCENTAGE (LAST 5)
ADE80%
NME20%
Adelaide are 4 from 5 in their last five with their only loss to cross-town rivals Port. North are 1 from 5 with losses to four top-eight sides.
MOMENTUM
ADE88
NME95
North’s momentum is inflated by a 130-55 thrashing of Richmond. Strip that out and the gap widens sharply in Adelaide’s favour.
LADDER POSITION
ADE50
NME50
Crows sit eighth at 5-4 with a form line of 4 from 5. The Roos sit twelfth and have not won outside Round 8 for three weeks.
Adelaide vs North Melbourne Form Guide
Adelaide Crows
WWLWW
- W 114-86 vs Carlton
- W 103-102 vs St Kilda
- L 75-127 vs Brisbane Lions
- W 76-75 vs Port Adelaide
- W 98-61 vs Richmond
North Melbourne Kangaroos
LLLWL
- L 97-105 vs Sydney Swans
- L 86-135 vs Geelong Cats
- L 98-105 vs GWS Giants
- W 130-55 vs Richmond
- L 66-92 vs Brisbane Lions
Final Verdict
Adelaide are hot, they are at home, and the Roos are in a hole. Take the Crows minus eighteen and a half at $1.91 and let the form line close the deal.
LOCK IT IN: Adelaide Crows -18.5 @ $1.91
Key Facts
| Match | Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne Kangaroos |
| Date | Saturday, May 16 |
| Venue | Adelaide Oval |
| Our Tip | Adelaide Crows -18.5 @ $1.91 |
| Predicted Score | Adelaide Crows 109 – North Melbourne Kangaroos 83 |
Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne Kangaroos FAQs
Who will win Adelaide vs North Melbourne?
Our model tips the Adelaide Crows to win by 26 points at Adelaide Oval. Adelaide sit eighth on the ladder at 5 wins and 4 losses while North Melbourne sit twelfth at 4 wins and 5 losses. Adelaide are 4 from 5 in recent form.
What is the best bet for Adelaide vs North Melbourne in Round 10?
Adelaide Crows minus 18.5 at $1.91 is our recommended best bet. The market has the Crows by 18.5 and our model has the margin at 26. Adelaide have beaten North in both of their most recent meetings.
Where is the Adelaide vs North Melbourne Round 10 match being played?
The match is at Adelaide Oval, kicking off at 1:15pm on Saturday 16 May 2026.
Verified result – Round 10
We tipped Adelaide Crows to win – correct. Final score: Adelaide Crows 133 – North Melbourne Kangaroos 65.
| Market | Our bet | Result | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Line | Adelaide Crows -18.5 @ $1.91 | Win | +0.91u |
Predicted: Adelaide Crows 109 – North Melbourne Kangaroos 83. Off by 42 pts on the margin. Season-to-date accuracy and ROI: AFL results page - Afl tips afl results.
