Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
West Coast vs Richmond Prediction
One of those rare betting opportunities where the bottom two sides can actually produce value.
Home • $1.74
VS
Away • $2.10
Saturday night • Optus Stadium •
Both teams are desperate for wins, and that desperation often creates the most unpredictable – and profitable – betting scenarios.
West Coast haven’t won in six games, while Richmond’s sole victory in their last five came against Essendon in a low-scoring grinder.
Their Round 9 meeting this year produced one of the matches of the season – 15 lead changes and Tom Brown’s match-saving tackle with under 30 seconds left preserved Richmond’s two-point win.
Richmond’s most recent outing saw them blow a final-quarter lead against Essendon, going scoreless when it mattered most.
West Coast? They jumped out to a 33-point lead against Port Adelaide before completely falling apart, conceding five unanswered goals in the last quarter.
KRUZEY’S TIPS
After crunching the numbers on this basement battle, I’m seeing clear value in backing the unders.
Both teams are struggling to score consistently, and when you combine that with Saturday night footy at Optus Stadium, the total looks vulnerable.
The Eagles’ home advantage is real, but their inability to sustain four-quarter efforts makes the line interesting too.
All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting
KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET
The data’s painting a fascinating picture here. My model has this finishing incredibly tight, and I mean properly tight – the kind of margin that has punters reaching for the antacids in the final minutes.
Our Data Says: West Coast 62, Richmond 60 (based on season averages adjusted for recent form)
That gives West Coast a 54.2% win chance, Richmond 45.8%
Bookmakers have West Coast at $1.74 (57.5% implied) vs Richmond at $2.10 (47.6% implied)
The Market Edge: Richmond offers slight value – our 45.8% vs market’s 47.6% implied chance suggests the line bet is where the smart money sits
Our Prediction
WCE 62 | RIC 60
Win Probability
WCE 54.2% | RIC 45.8%
Market Edge
1.8%
on Richmond
FORM LINE
Looking at the last five games, we’re dealing with two sides in serious strife. West Coast have dropped six straight, averaging just 55 points while conceding 86.8. That’s relegation-level stuff in any other competition.
Richmond’s form reads marginally better with one win from five, but they’re averaging a miserable 49 points per game.
The concerning trend for Eagles fans? They’ve been competitive early in three of their last five games before completely falling away.
Richmond’s issue is different – they’re hanging around in contests but can’t find the scoreboard when it counts. Both teams are leaking points badly, though West Coast’s 86.8 points against average is particularly alarming.
West Coast Eagles
LLLLL
- Dropped six straight, averaging just 55 points while conceding 86.8.
Richmond Tigers
WLLLL
- One win from five, averaging a miserable 49 points per game.
KEY STATS
The season averages tell a grim story for both sides. West Coast sit dead last for points scored (67.4) while Richmond aren’t much better at 71.9. Defensively, the Eagles are conceding 97.8 points per game – worst in the competition – while Richmond allow 93.7.
Here’s the kicker though: West Coast’s home scoring improves to 72.1 points, while Richmond average just 68.3 on the road.
That home-ground advantage at Optus Stadium, where the dimensions and crowd noise can unsettle visitors, might be worth more than the 4.5-point line suggests.
The combined season scoring average of 139.3 points makes that 162.5 total look generous.
POINTS SCORED
Richmond
71.9
71.9
West Coast
67.4
67.4
POINTS CONCEDED
West Coast
97.8
97.8
Richmond
93.7
93.7
HOME SCORING
West Coast
72.1
72.1
Richmond
68.3
68.3
SELECTION WATCH
Team selections yet to be announced – we’ll update our analysis once the lineups drop.
THE FINAL WORD
This shapes as one of those games where backing unders makes the most sense.
Two struggling teams, both averaging well below 70 points in recent weeks, meeting on a Saturday night at Optus Stadium where Richmond have historically struggled.
The 162.5 total assumes both teams suddenly rediscover their scoring touch, which seems optimistic given their recent output.
My strongest play remains the under 162.5 at $1.88.
With both teams combining for less than 140 points based on current form, there’s a clear margin for error built into this bet.
If you’re looking for a head-to-head play, Richmond with the 4.5-point start offers value given how close this projects to be.
LOCK IT IN: Total Points Under 162.5 @ $1.88
My strongest play remains the under 162.5 at $1.88.
Related:
AFL Draw
Check the AFL Draw - Afl fixture for upcoming AFL matches this season.
Other Betting Tips
We don’t just do AFL tips - Afl tips; our experts also specialise in NRL betting - Nrl tips and horse racing tips - Horse racing tips.
