Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
North Melbourne vs Port Adelaide Prediction
North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Port Adelaide Power Predictions
Sunday, March 15, 2026
1:10pm AEDT @ Marvel Stadium
Final Score Prediction
North Melbourne
92 : 84
Port Adelaide
The market has Port Adelaide as favourites.
My model has North Melbourne winning.
And the gap between those two views – 18.5 points – is big enough that it warrants a serious look before you follow the crowd.
Let’s start with the thing that jumps out immediately: the ELO differential here is -236.6 in Port’s favour.
That’s a massive quality gap on paper, and it’s the main reason the market has the Power as favourites despite Port ending 2025 winning one their last five.
That’s right – Port Adelaide, a side with a midfield good enough to contend, went 1-from-5 to close out last season.
Port’s collapse came despite their talent, which raises genuine questions about what Josh Carr inherits as the new coach.
What the model is latching onto is North’s home attack-versus-defence split of -34.2 and Port’s away attack-versus-defence of -60.4.
That second number is brutal – it suggests Port’s attack struggles badly when they’re on the road.
Nick Larkey as captain leading a hungry North side at Marvel, where the Kangaroos will have every incentive to make a statement early in the season, is a genuinely dangerous setup for a Port side still finding their identity under new leadership.
North’s average margin over the last five was -29.4, so I’m not suggesting this is a well-oiled machine.
But Port’s away attack data is bad enough that the model sees this as a North Melbourne game.
Best Bets
The model has North winning outright. The market has Port winning by 10.5.
That’s the second-biggest model-versus-market disagreement of the round, and it’s where the value is hiding.
North Melbourne +10.5 at $1.89Â is the play.
Even if the model is wrong about the winner, the Kangaroos are getting more than a goal and a half’s head start.
Port’s away attack-versus-defence rating of -60.4 is the worst of any away side this round – and they’re coming in under a brand new coach, on the road, against a North side that’s been building quietly and now has Larkey leading from the front.
I’d also give a small look at North H2H at $2.42.
The model genuinely believes they win this game, and $2.42 on a home side is decent money if you trust the data.
Keep it light – the ELO gap is real and Port’s midfield quality doesn’t disappear overnight – but the line bet is the stronger play here.
BEST BET
NORTH MELBOURNE vs PORT ADELAIDE • MARVEL STADIUM
Tip: NORTH MELBOURNE +10.5
Odds: $1.89
Confidence
7/10
VALUE BET
NORTH MELBOURNE vs PORT ADELAIDE • MARVEL STADIUM
Tip: NORTH MELBOURNE H2H
Odds: $2.42
Confidence
6/10
What to Watch
- Port Adelaide under Josh Carr: New coach, new era, and nobody really knows what shape this group is in mentally after last year’s capitulation. The Power have the talent – particularly through the midfield – but Carr’s first away game as senior coach is a genuine unknown. How they set up tactically and how the group responds to adversity will tell us a lot about the next few months.
- Nick Larkey as captain: The All-Australian spearhead now wears the armband and has every reason to lead by example in front of a home crowd. North’s attack-versus-defence split at home of -34.2 isn’t pretty, but Larkey as a focal point changes that equation – if he gets early supply and starts converting, the Kangaroos can build a lead that Port’s away attack struggles to chase down.
- Mitch Georgiades against North’s defence: The Power forward hasn’t missed a beat since returning from his ACL – booting goals in 22 straight matches and counting. North’s defence has been one of the weaker units in the competition. If Georgiades gets space and Port start to find their feet on the road, he’s the most likely player to drag the Power back into it and make the line bet sweat.
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