North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Gold Coast SUNS Predictions
Game 3 of Round 5 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees North Melbourne vs Gold Coast on April 12 at Barossa Park on Saturday afternoon.  You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.Â
At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for North Melbourne Kangaroos set at $3.80, and $1.26 for the Gold Coast SUNS, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Kangaroos
24.91%
SUNS
75.09%
Opportunity Bet
The Betting Edge
The Suns are clear favourites, no argument there, but the bookies might be laying it on a bit thick. They’ve got the Suns winning this 75.09% of the time, while our numbers suggest it’s more like 65.5%. Still strong, but not *that* strong.
Now here’s where it gets interesting, the Kangaroos. The bookies have priced them like they’ve got almost no chance (just 24.91%), but our model gives them a 34.5% shot. That’s a decent jump. And at $3.80 odds, there’s some sneaky value sitting there for anyone brave enough to back the underdog.
In Summary
While the Suns should get the job done, there’s a bit of a betting edge in favour of North Melbourne. Our numbers say they’ve got a better shot than the bookies are giving them credit for, making that $3.80 looks pretty tasty. If you’re keen on chasing value and don’t mind a bit of risk, the Roos might just be worth a cheeky punt.
What to do?
Unfortunately North Melbournes line is +24.5 which isn’t really enough to our confidence towards a handicap win, while only playing three games so far Gold Coast have had the toughest road so far this season with an average opposition ladder ranking of 4.25, comparable to North Melbourne having one of the easiest runs at 11.5 and sitting uncomfortably in 13th.
Unless by some miracle North Melbourne does manage to claw its way up for a win this week there is basically a guaranteed win this week for the SUNS, expect a blowout, GWS should be looking at the 40+ winning margin.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly NFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy. Connect on LinkedInEmail Contact
