Fremantle vs Brisbane Grand Final Prediction
Brisbane by four. That is my number for the Grand…
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne Prediction
Hawks Fortress Under Siege: Can North’s Midfield Revolution Crack UTAS?
Home • $1.14
VS
Away • $5.30
TBA • UTAS Stadium • Patchy rain forecast (74% chance)
I’ve been tracking Hawthorn’s dominance at UTAS Stadium, and the numbers are staggering – they’re riding a four-game winning streak at their Tassie fortress.
But here’s what caught my eye: North Melbourne just pulled off one of the upsets of the season, and the odds still have them as massive outsiders at $5.30.
After crunching these numbers, I reckon the market’s sleeping on something here.
Last time these sides met? Absolute carnage. Hawthorn’s 124-point demolition of North Melbourne in Round 24 last year was their biggest ever win against the Kangaroos – 26.14 (170) to 7.4 (46).
The Hawks’ small forwards ran riot with Dylan Moore bagging four goals, while Jai Newcombe and James Sicily dominated every contest. Fast forward to now, and both teams are in vastly different form.
Hawthorn scraped home against Adelaide by just 3 points last week (6.11 to 5.14), while North stunned Carlton at the MCG, winning 84-73 after piling on eight unanswered goals.
KRUZEY’S TIPS
Look, I know what you’re thinking – how can you back North at these odds after that hiding last year?
But after digging into the data, there’s genuine value here.
The Hawks’ goal kicking has been diabolical (13 consecutive behinds against Adelaide), while North’s midfield is firing with Tom Powell and Luke Davies-Uniacke dominating clearances.
The 31.5-point line feels way too generous given Hawthorn’s recent struggles.
All odds from Unibet, correct at time of posting
KRUZEY MODEL VS MARKET
After running the numbers through our prediction model, I’m seeing a much closer contest than the bookies.
The data’s telling me this could be one of those games where the market’s overreacted to historical results without factoring in current form.
The Market Edge: North Melbourne offers massive value – our 40.24% vs market’s 18.9% implied chance
Our Prediction
HAW 81 | NTH 73
Win Probability
HAW 59.76% | NTH 40.24%
Market Edge
21.34%
on North Melbourne
FORM LINE
The form guide tells two completely different stories here, and that’s what makes this game fascinating.
Hawthorn’s won two of their last five, but their scoring has dropped off a cliff – averaging just 68 points compared to their season average of 12.4 goals per game.
They’ve been in three nail-biters recently, losing to Collingwood by 51 but also scraping wins against Adelaide (3 points) and West Coast (22 points).
Hawthorn Hawks
WWLLL
- Beat Adelaide by 3, beat West Coast by 22, lost to Collingwood by 51
- Averaging just 68 points in last 5 games
- Goal kicking accuracy becoming a major concern
North Melbourne Kangaroos
WLWLW
- Beat Carlton by 11, lost to Freo by 6, beat West Coast by 10
- Averaging 71 points in last 5 games
- Young guns Colby McKercher and the midfield brigade stepping up
KEY STATS
The season averages paint an interesting picture, and honestly, they surprised me when I first saw them.
Hawthorn’s averaging 12.4 goals per game to North’s 11.6 – that’s closer than the odds suggest.
But here’s the kicker: North Melbourne actually wins the clearance battle on average (41.4 to 35.7) and contested possessions (134.5 to 131.6).
GOALS PER GAME
Hawthorn
12.4
12.4
North Melb
11.6
11.6
INSIDE 50S
Hawthorn
53.4
53.4
North Melb
46.6
46.6
CLEARANCES
North Melb
41.4
41.4
Hawthorn
35.7
35.7
CONTESTED POSSESSIONS
North Melb
134.5
134.5
Hawthorn
131.6
131.6
DISPOSAL EFFICIENCY
North Melb
73.8%
73.8%
Hawthorn
73.3%
73.3%
THE FINAL WORD
Bottom line: this shapes as a classic case of the market overrating historical dominance.
Yes, Hawthorn demolished North last year, but the Hawks are struggling for goals while the Roos’ midfield is humming.
The 31.5-point line is begging to be taken given Hawthorn’s recent form – they’ve won their last two games by a combined 25 points.
Add in the patchy rain forecast (74% chance) which should keep scoring low, and the under looks solid too. For the brave punters, that $5.30 about North represents genuine each-way value.
Sometimes the best bets are the ones that make you slightly uncomfortable – and this is one of them.
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