Game 4 of Round 5 of the 2026 Toyota AFL Premiership predictions sees Carlton vs West Coast on April 12 at Adelaide Oval on Saturday afternoon.  You can catch the game live on Kayo, & Foxtel.Â
At the time of writing Ladbrokes had the head to head for Carlton Blues set at $1.16, and $5.25 for the West Coast Eagles, This sets the bookmakers implied probability for both teams as follows:
Blues
79.96%
Eagles
20.04%
Opportunity Bet
The Blues are clear favourites and rightfully so, our model gives them a solid 70% chance of taking the win. But the bookies are even more confident, pricing them like they win this almost 80% of the time. That’s a bit of an oversell.
Now, on to the Eagles. The bookies reckon they’ve only got a 20.04% shot, but our numbers put them up at 30%. That’s a fair jump, and when you match that with a juicy $5.25 price, there’s actually some decent value in backing the underdog here.
In Summary
Even though the Blues are expected to win (and by a good margin), the value edge lies with West Coast. Our model suggests they’ve got a better crack at causing an upset than the odds suggest, making that $5.25 price worth a cheeky look for those chasing a high-return play.
What to do?
The edge might lie with West Coast but realistically, any smart punter knows they are not a value bet. Since 2022 Carlton has been beating West Coast by more than 40 points. West Coast has had the easiest run of any team coming into this weeks game with an average opponent ladder ranking of 13, while Carlton has been playing teams with an average ladder ranking of 9.5 meaning they have been playing significantly harder teams.
The Line is high this week at 34.5, but it shouldn’t be enough to get West Coast over the edge, best bet this week is the Blue boys with a 40+ winning margin, on the nose is a teeny $1.16, and the winning margin only just comes out as the best bet at 2.02.
Ben's been analysing footy betting markets for over a decade - breaking down team form, player stats, and where the bookies have got it wrong. He leads KRUZEY's weekly NFL and NRL tips and writes our betting app reviews, testing everything from multi-builders to odds competitiveness.
A lifelong Essendon supporter (yes, he's used to disappointment), Ben combines statistical analysis with genuine footy obsession. He watches more game tape than is probably healthy. Connect on LinkedInEmail Contact
