Adelaide vs GWS Prediction

AFL Round 24 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

ADE

$1.24

Saturday, August 22 • 8:10pm AEST

91 : 75

Adelaide Oval

GWS

$4.10

Adelaide Crows by 16 points

Model Predicted Margin

Adelaide Crows by 16

Current Market

Adelaide Crows -26.5

10.5 pts tighter

Our Bets This Game

H2HAdelaide Crows

$1.24

LINEGreater Western Sydney Giants +26.5

$1.89

TOTALUnder 179.5 points

$1.87

MULTIGreater Western Sydney Giants +26.5, Under 179.5 points & Clayton Oliver 25+ Disposals

$3.96

Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet

Odds correct at time of posting

Greater Western Sydney Have Kept the Last Two Meetings Inside Four Goals. Adelaide Are Being Asked to Win by Four Goals and More.

Adelaide have beaten this mob by 18 points and by 16 points in the last two meetings, and they have cleared 26.5 once in their last five games against anyone. That is the whole bet.

Four goals and more is not what this side does and it is not what this fixture does. The rest of this is the case against me, and why I am taking the points anyway.

These Two Do Not Play Blowouts

The once was Essendon by 72 in Round 21. Three of the other four were decided by 24 points or less.

So the big one exists, it just turns up against a side that has stopped competing. This opponent is not that. Two meetings, two Adelaide wins, and neither of them got anywhere near the number I am being asked to give away.

The Percentage Question

Here is the one that could beat me, and it deserves more than a nod. Adelaide can still run down Geelong for sixth on percentage, and sixth buys them a week off before finals. Greater Western Sydney are 12th, their season ends here, and they have nothing riding on the result. On paper that is a side with a reason to keep the boot down against a side that has already knocked off.

So here is my answer. To move percentage in any meaningful way Adelaide have to win by a margin they have not gone near against this opponent and have managed once in five weeks against anyone. A side chasing that works out by the middle of the third quarter that it is not coming, and when it does the last quarter turns into getting bodies through to September rather than piling on.

The other half of it is the Giants. Two of their last five have been decided by three points or less and they put 54 on West Coast last start. Having nothing on the line has not made them easy to play against.

If Adelaide are still throwing everything forward at the last change, I lose. I am betting they are not, and the line gives me a fair bit of room to be right.

The Team News

Taylor Walker comes back in after being managed last week. That is the change that matters for Adelaide and it is part of why they win the game. It is not worth four goals of handicap.

His retirement at the end of the season is the story of the night for everyone else. That is colour, not a reason to bet, and a loud crowd has never covered a line on its own.

If a late change lands for either side before the bounce it would have to be a big one to shift a number this fat.

The Under Backs the Same Read

One of the last two meetings between these two produced 86 points between them. Eighty six. That is the extreme end of it, but it tells you what this fixture turns into when both sides want the ball in dispute.

I have the total at 166 against a market number of 179.5. Adelaide’s pressure is the reason. They tackle more than the Giants do, they are happy for this to be a scrap, and a scrap under lights is not a big scoring night.

At $1.87 that is a genuine second leg rather than a filler.

Adelaide vs GWS Tip

I’m tipping Adelaide by about 16 points, because they win the ball in the air at home, but 26.5 is well past where I have this landing.

Adelaide vs GWS Key Stats

Adelaide vs GWS Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Riley Thilthorpe two or more goals, $1.46. Riley Thilthorpe kicked two last start and there is a five sitting in that same seven game run, so the ceiling is real. Adelaide winning the ball in the air at home is exactly how he gets fed.

Harvey Thomas 20 or more disposals, $1.63. Harvey Thomas has posted 20 disposals in back to back games and has a 21 and a 23 in there as well. Twenty or more is a bar he clears more often than not, and $1.63 pays fine for it.

Jordan Dawson to kick a goal, $1.30. Jordan Dawson has a goal in four of his last seven, so the blank last start does not move me. If Adelaide control the football at home the way I think they will, he gets on the end of one.

Clayton Oliver 25 or more disposals, $1.12. Clayton Oliver piled on 29 last start and he has not dipped below 23 in any of those seven games. Twenty five or more is the steady leg I am building the multi around.

Josh Rachele two or more goals, $2.07. Josh Rachele snagged two last start and that is three multi goal games out of seven for him. At $2.07 in a game I have Adelaide winning by about 16, that is the one worth the swing.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

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