Essendon vs Port Adelaide Prediction

AFL Round 24 • 2026

Model Predicted Final Score

ESS

$2.01

Sunday, August 23 • 12:20pm AEST

77 : 94

Marvel Stadium

PTA

$1.83

Port Adelaide Power by 17 points

Model Predicted Margin

Port Adelaide Power by 17

Current Market

Port Adelaide Power -2.5

14.5 pts edge

Our Bets This Game

H2HPort Adelaide Power

$1.83

LINEPort Adelaide Power -2.5

$1.91

TOTALUnder 184.5 points

$1.88

MULTIPort Adelaide Power -2.5, Under 184.5 points & Zach Merrett 25+ Disposals

$3.99

Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet

Odds correct at time of posting

Essendon Have Been Beaten by 36, 67, 72 and 93 in Four Straight Weeks. Two and a Half Points Is Nowhere Near Enough Room for Them.

Neither of these sides is playing for anything on Sunday, and the football will look like it.

Port not winning in six is the argument against me, and it still does not put them within two and a half points of a side getting beaten by 67, 72 and 93. Losing is one thing. Being wiped off the park every week is another.

My money is on which one of them collapses less, and that is a question I am comfortable answering.

Two and a half points is the mistake

The bookies have Port Adelaide at 2.5 and I have them by 17. That is where the bet lives. Essendon’s best effort in four weeks was a 36 point loss, and I am not giving that side a two and a half point line just because the ladder no longer matters to either club.

Port’s outs do not close a gap this big

Willem Drew pulled up with a back complaint after Thursday’s session, and Darcy Byrne-Jones comes back in off a one match suspension. In a live game the outs would trouble me. This is not a live game. Port still mark it in front of goal and still win first hands at the stoppage, and neither of those things depends on the players they are missing. Essendon are the side who have to find something they have not found in a month.

184.5 is asking these two for a scoreboard

Essendon have not reached 80 points in five weeks and Port managed 56 last time out. I have this finishing about 94 to 77, which is a long way short of 184.5. Port getting on the board is not the risk to the under, Essendon are.

The case for Essendon, and why it does not hold

Port have not won in six and Essendon did beat them in one of the last three meetings, so there is a case. Here is why it does not move me. Essendon’s win in that run was by 12, both Port wins were by more than nine goals, and when these two last met in Round 2 at Adelaide Oval the margin was 63.

Essendon vs Port Adelaide Tip

I’ve got Port Adelaide by 17 at Marvel, and with the line cut back to 2.5 the bookies are handing over nearly two and a half goals of room.

Essendon vs Port Adelaide Key Stats

Essendon vs Port Adelaide Form Guide

Player Prop Predictions

Archie Roberts 25 or more disposals, $1.22. Twenty eight last start and that’s the shape of his season, four of his six games at 23 or better. Three of those six cleared 25, so at $1.22 you are backing him to be at the top of his range.

Mitch Zadow to kick a goal, $1.41. A goal in four of his last seven and Port Adelaide should have the ball in their front half plenty with a 17 point win on my read. He only needs the one.

Zach Merrett 25 or more disposals, $1.11. He’s cleared 25 in four of his last seven.

Peter Wright two or more goals, $1.19. Two last start and a six in there earlier shows what he can do when the ball comes his way. Two or more goals in four of his last seven at $1.19 is the read.

Corey Durdin two or more goals, $1.76. He’s kicked multiple goals in three of his last seven.

These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.

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