Melbourne vs Carlton Prediction
Carlton are favourite and I’m not going to argue with…
West Coast vs Collingwood Prediction
Collingwood have five out injured and a long flight west, and the market has trimmed them to nine and a half points. That is still too few against a West Coast side beaten in each of their last five, who have not cracked 75 points in any of them.
AFL Round 22 • 2026
Model Predicted Final Score
WCE
$2.43
Sunday, August 9 • 4:10pm AEST
60 : 99
Optus Stadium
COL
$1.56
Collingwood Magpies by 39 points
Model Predicted Margin
Collingwood Magpies by 39
Current Market
Collingwood Magpies -9.5
29.5 pts edge
Our Bets This Game
H2HCollingwood Magpies
$1.56
LINECollingwood Magpies -9.5
$1.89
TOTALUnder 170.5 points
$1.88
MULTICollingwood Magpies -9.5, Under 170.5 points & Milan Murdock Anytime Goal
$6.18
Claim Tips at Unibet - Offer unibet
Odds correct at time of posting
Pendlebury and De Goey Are Out and Collingwood Should Still Be More Than Nine and a Half Clear of West Coast.
I had this as a six goal game before the team sheet landed and I have it as a six goal game now. The names on it do not change my number. West Coast do.
The Outs Do Not Cost You Ten Points
Collingwood have still won four of their last five. West Coast have lost each of their last five. Ninth with a few unavailable is a long way clear of sixteenth, and a goal and a half is the price you charge when two sides are in the same postcode. These two are not.
Nine and a Half Is Not the Gap Between These Two
I have Collingwood by about six goals. The bookies say a goal and a half. That gap is the bet. West Coast are not staying inside ten of this Collingwood side while they cannot put a score on the board.
The Last Meeting Was Ten Points and That Is the Worry
These two met in Round 11 and Collingwood only got there by ten. West Coast at Optus Stadium with a crowd behind them is a different proposition, and Collingwood have to fly across the country for a Sunday afternoon. If this one is still alive at three quarter time, that is why. I think the gap has grown since.
West Coast Cannot Score, So the Points Stay Down
Collingwood keep the ball and West Coast cannot make them pay for it. That is a game that gets ugly rather than open. Do the sum on my call and it lands around a hundred to sixty, which is the cover and the under in the same result. West Coast have not got to 75 in any of the last five, so holding them in the sixties is not a big ask. If one leg beats me it is the under, and it beats me when Collingwood open this up instead of strangling it.
West Coast vs Collingwood Tip
I am on Collingwood on the line at minus 9.5 for $1.89. I have them winning by about six goals, so $1.89 about a side I make four goals clear of the line is where the value is. The under 170.5 at $1.88 is the second play, because West Coast are simply not scoring.
West Coast vs Collingwood Key Stats
MARKS INSIDE 50
WCE10
COL13
Collingwood hit a target when they go inside 50. West Coast kick to a contest and hope. That is the difference between a forward line that scores and one that hands the ball straight back.
HIT OUTS
WCE33
COL29
Winning the taps is the one place West Coast are on top and it is the cheapest place in football to be on top. It only turns into points if you win the ball after it and go forward with it, and their scoreboard says they are not.
HANDBALLS
WCE139
COL169
Collingwood move it by hand to keep it. Every chain they hold is a chain West Coast never get to run, and that is how a game like this gets strangled rather than opened up.
West Coast vs Collingwood Form Guide
West Coast Eagles
LLLLL
- R21: L 73-84 vs Richmond
- R20: L 42-112 vs Fremantle
- R19: L 69-93 vs Brisbane Lions
- R18: L 70-86 vs Western Bulldogs
- R17: L 74-99 vs Adelaide Crows
Collingwood Magpies
LWWWW
- R21: L 72-97 vs Geelong Cats
- R20: W 108-74 vs Adelaide Crows
- R19: W 90-69 vs Carlton
- R18: W 89-85 vs North Melbourne
- R17: W 104-98 vs Gold Coast Suns
Michael’s Verdict
Collingwood win this and I think they win it comfortably. Five out is a genuine worry and Perth is a long way to fly for a Sunday afternoon, but a goal and a half is not a fair ask against a side that cannot put a score on the board. I am on the Magpies to cover, and the under with them.
Our Bets
H2H Collingwood Magpies$1.56
LINE Collingwood Magpies -9.5$1.89
TOTAL Under 170.5 points$1.88
MULTI Collingwood Magpies -9.5, Under 170.5 points & Milan Murdock Anytime Goal$6.18
Player Prop Predictions
Tim Kelly 25 or more disposals, $1.82. 25 on the dot last start and a 31 the week before, so he is living right on this line. He has got to 25 or more in three of his last six and $1.82 is fair about a bloke seeing that much of it.
Harvey Harrison to kick a goal, $2.08. He has hit the scoreboard in each of his last two and kicked a goal in three of his last six. If Collingwood get out to the six goal buffer I am forecasting, the chances keep coming and $2.08 is generous.
Milan Murdock to kick a goal, $1.74. A goal in four of his last seven, including three games straight before the last one, so he is a regular on the scoresheet. The short price is the market agreeing with me, and he anchors the multi for that reason.
Harley Reid 25 or more disposals, $2.12. 34 disposals last start on the back of a 30, so the ball is finding him more than ever. West Coast will be chasing it plenty against a Collingwood side I make six goals better, and $2.12 about 25 or more is the best value on the board.
Beau McCreery to kick a goal, $1.81. Two goals last start and five across his past three games, so he is right in the middle of a purple patch. Collingwood should control this one for long stretches and $1.81 about him raising a flag again suits me.
The Props I Like
PROP Tim Kelly 25+ Disposals$1.82
PROP Harvey Harrison Anytime Goal$2.08
PROP Milan Murdock Anytime Goal$1.74
PROP Harley Reid 25+ Disposals$2.12
PROP Beau McCreery Anytime Goal$1.81
Player Props MultiMilan Murdock Anytime Goal, Tim Kelly 25+ Disposals & Harvey Harrison Anytime Goal, my price $6.59
These prop odds are Sportsbet’s, correct at time of posting. Prices move, so check before you bet and take the best one going. Late team changes can knock out any leg.
Up Next in the AFL
Key Facts
| Match | West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood Magpies |
| Date | Sunday, August 9 |
| Kick-off | 4:10pm AEST |
| Venue | Optus Stadium |
| Round | AFL Round 22 |
| Status | Scheduled |
| Our Tip | Multi: Collingwood Magpies -9.5, Under 170.5 points & Milan Murdock Anytime Goal @ $6.18 |
| Predicted Score | West Coast Eagles 60 – Collingwood Magpies 99 |
West Coast Eagles vs Collingwood Magpies FAQs
Who will win West Coast vs Collingwood?
I am tipping Collingwood to win by about six goals at Optus Stadium. West Coast have lost each of their last five and have not cracked 75 points in any of them.
What is the best bet for West Coast vs Collingwood in Round 22?
My headline multi at $6.18 rolls the line and total in with a player prop, Milan Murdock Anytime Goal. On its own, Collingwood Magpies -9.5 at $1.89 is the anchor.
Where is the West Coast vs Collingwood Round 22 match being played?
The match is at Optus Stadium in Perth, kicking off at 4:10pm AEST on Sunday 9 August 2026.
Why back Collingwood on the road with players out?
Because of who they are playing. Collingwood have won four of their last five and sit ninth. West Coast are sixteenth and beaten five straight without getting to 75 points once. The outs cost Collingwood something. They do not cost them ten points.
Will the under 170.5 points land?
I think so. I have the game around a hundred to sixty, which gets the under home with a bit spare. If one leg goes it is this one, and it goes if Collingwood turn it into a shootout instead of strangling it.
Who is West Coast Eagles playing next week?
West Coast play Greater Western Sydney - at ENGIE Stadium on Sunday 16 August in AFL Round 23.
Who is Collingwood Magpies playing next week?
Collingwood play Hawthorn - at the MCG on Saturday 15 August in AFL Round 23.
